Projected State Tax Growth in FY 2012 and Beyond

Fiscal year (FY) 2012 marks the second consecutive year state officials are forecasting state tax growth compared with the previous fiscal year (FY). This is a welcome  development in the states following the revenue declines that occurred in FY 2009 and FY 2010, the height of The Great Recession.  Although most states are projecting tax collections to grow in FY 2012, two-thirds are anticipating growth of less than 5 percent. However, even small improvements are good news for state budgets as they emerge from historically bad fiscal conditions.  At the same time, officials in some states expressed concern about whether they will hit their collection targets. It is likely that many states will revisit their forecasts before legislatures convene their 2012 sessions.

This brief includes:

  •  Projected FY 2012 growth for total tax collections and personal income, sales, corporate income, severance, real estate transfer and miscellaneous taxes.
  • Tax collection forecasts for FY 2013, FY 2014 and FY 2015.

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This report is based on a survey of legislative fiscal officers in the summer of 2011. All 50 states provided information.