Coronavirus (COVID-19): Revised State Revenue Projections

5/29/2020

Fiscal Coronavirus

NCSL is tracking the budgetary and economic consequences of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This page summarizes projected revenue shortfalls and revised estimates by state and fiscal year.

revenue declines map

FY 2020 State Revenue Projections

Alaska: The Department of Revenue projects a $527 shortfall in general fund revenues for FY 2020 then previously estimated in fall 2019. On April 1, the Alaska North Slope oil price bottomed out at $21.80 a barrel. The Department dropped crude price projections from $63.54 per barrel in December 2019, to remain below $30 per barrel for the remainder of FY 2020. (Published April 6.)

Arizona: In an April monthly fiscal update, the Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC) reported March general fund revenues were 6.1% below the prior year and were $8.8 million below the enacted budget forecast. The loss was mainly due to individual income tax revenues (IIT), 37.6% below the prior year. IIT Withholding was flat compared to last April, which could be caused by a delay between paychecks and changes in unemployment. Sales tax collections were 8.2% above the prior year and are $22.4 million above the enacted budget forecast. New data on sales tax deposits in April are insufficient to report. Corporate income tax revenue has declined by 45% as of April 17. (Published April 20.)

Arkansas: In a revised general revenue forecast, the Department of Finance and Administration reported general revenues were down $50.5 million or 12.4% below the previous year. (Published March 23.)

Colorado: Legislative Council Staff reported general fund revenue collections are expected to decrease 7.2% during the current fiscal year to total $11.7 billion. Expectations were reduced $892.8 million, or 7.1%, relative to the March 2020 forecast. (Published May 10.)

The Legislative Council Staff reduced the FY 2020 general fund year end balance expectations made in December 2019 by $179.6 million. Individual income tax revenue expectations were revised downward by $241.3 million, or 2.8 percent. Corporate income tax ws reduced by $54.3 million. (Published March 16.) 

The Office of State Planning and Budgeting revised general fund revenue downward from the state’s December 2019 forecast by $300 million for the current FY 2020. (Published March 16.)

Connecticut: The state's Consensus Revenue Estimates revised general fund revenues and special transportation revenues downward for the current fiscal year, FY 2020 and next three ensuring fiscal years from January estimates. .General fund revenues are now estimated to drop $942.1, or 4.8%. The special transportation fund is expected to decline by $164.4 million, or a 9.5% reduction from January. (Published April 30, Office of Fiscal Analysis and the Office of Policy and Management.)

According to State Comptroller Kevin Lembo, the state is on track to end FY 2020 with a $170 million deficit in the general fund. The Comptroller, decreased the sales tax estimate by $30 million. (Published March 16)

The Office of Fiscal Analysis revised the general fund expenditure projection downward by $21.1 million on a net basis for fiscal year 2020. The general fund deficit increased $88.1 million from the state’s previous estimate of $90.1 million and the Special Transportation Fund shifted from a $5.1 million surplus to a $23.8 million deficit. (Published March 25.)

Delaware: The Delaware Economic and Financial Advisory Council lowered its revenue estimates for FY 2020. (Published March 16.)

District of Columbia: The Office of the Chief Financial Officer revised FY 2020 revenues down by $722 million from February estimates.  The reduction is mostly due to an approximately $400 million reduction from the previous estimate. Individual income tax revenue for FY 2020 is revised downward by $100 million. FY 2020 deed taxes were also revised downward by $127, a decline of 17% from FY 2019. (Published, April 24.)

Hawaii: The Council on Revenues estimates general fund tax revenue will drop 7% during FY 2020. (Presented May 28.)

In a letter to Governor David Ige (D), the Council on Revenues lowered its FY 2020 forecast for the growth of the state general fund tax revenue from 4.1% to 3.8%. (Published March 13.)

Florida: The Office of Economic & Demographic Research reported sales tax collection came in $12.4 million or .58% below monthly estimates. General fund revenue collections were $61.3 million, or 2.4% over estimates adopted by the General Revenue Estimating Conference in January 2020. (Published April 24.)

Idaho: According to the Division of Financial Management under Governor Brad Little's office, Idaho had a strong general fund revenue performance in March, beating projections by $31 million or 13%. Current general fund revenue collections have been $2.67 billion or $144 million higher then originally projected. However, sales tax revenue was $1.1 million below estimates, which may indicate early signs of the coronavirus's impact. Idaho's April report reflects activity before coronavirus measures were implemented. (Published April 9.)

Illinois: Current fiscal year general fund revenues were revised to $2.7 billion below February estimates of $36.9 billion by the Governor's Office of Management and Budget (GOMB). GOMB reports that the revenue shortfall and additional FY 2020 borrowing has created a budgetary gap when compared to the Governor's original spending plan in February. (Published April 15.)

Indiana: Overall tax revenue in March 2020 was 6%, or $70 million lower then previously estimated in December 2019, according to the State Budget Agency. Sales tax revenue which accounts for roughly 50% of state tax collections, declined by 4%, or $25.2 million. Corporate taxes were down $17.9 million and individual income taxes were down by $9.2 million. Despite declines, revenue is $33.5 million above previous estimates. (Published March 30.)

Iowa: In a state tax revenue update, the Legislative Fiscal Agency (LSA) reports net state tax revenue declined $307.3 million or 48% between March 19 and April 24 from the same period last year. Much of the decrease is attributed to tax due date delays. Iowa delayed individual income tax and corporate income tax payments from April 30 to July 31. Early tax refunds were also ahead of pace in comparison to last year. Sales and use tax revenue declined by 2.6% and individual income tax withholding dropped by 2.1%. LSA expects tax revenue consequences of the pandemic to become more severe over the coming weeks and months. (Published April 27.)

The general fund revenues declined by $34.3, or 9.1% in March, according to the LSA. LSA reports the decline was mostly due to an increase in tax refund pay out, accounting for more than $70 million more than March 2019. (Published April 1.)

Kansas: The Consensus Estimating Group decreased general fund estimates for FY 2020 and FY 2021 estimates by a combined $1.2 billion from November 2019 estimates.  The estimate for total taxes decreased by $1.365 billion and other revenues were increased by $93.1 million for the next two years combined. FY 2020 was decreased by $826.9 million, or 10.8% below previous estimates. FY 2021 estimates declined by $445 million, or 5.8%. (Published April 30.)

The Department of Revenue reported the state closed March total tax collections with 1.6% or $8.6 million below previous estimates. Individual income, sales and use taxes came in above estimates. Corporate income tax collections saw the largest hit, at $8.6 million below estimates and 24.5% below March fiscal year 2019 collections. (Published April 1.)

Kentucky: According to the Office of State Budget Director, the enacted estimate for the general fund and road fund was revised reduced by $456.7 million, or a 4% revenue shortfall. (Published May 27.)

Louisiana: After three quarters of relatively good performance the FY 2020 will with $123.1 million less in general fund revenue from the baseline forecast of April 2019 and a $439 M drop from FY19 actual. (Published May 11, Revenue Estimating Conference.)

Maryland: The Bureau of Revenue Estimates estimates that projected state tax revenues could drop by as mucha as $990 to $1.1 billion before the end of the current fiscal year. (Published May 14.)

Comptroller Peter Framchot and the Bureau of Revenue Estimates outlined a shortfall of approximately $2.8 billion during the final quarter of FY 2020. The impact represents a loss of nearly 15% to the states annual general fund.  Maryland's withholding tax revenues declined by 22% or an average monthly impact of $185 million in losses. The economic shutdown could also result in a loss of 59% of all sales tax revenue in a month, or almost $250 million.  (Published April 10.)

Michigan: According to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference, the state is estimating a $6.3 billion shortfall in FY 2020 and FY 2021 combined compared to January forecasts. The state is facing a $2.7 billion shortfall in general fund and school air fund revenues for FY 2020, which including a $1.1 billion deficit in the school aid fund. Total revenue from taxes and other sources was expected to be $21.3 billion, a 14% decrease from the previous year and $3.6 billion below consensus estimates. (Published May 15.)

New Hampshire: The Department of Administrative Services reported a $10.3 million or 1.5% decline in March general and education fund revenues. Business taxes saw the largest decline in revenues from original projections. Revenues dropped $15.5 million or 15.% below projections. Other revenue declines included the real estate transfer tax revenue and the communications services tax. (Published April 20.)

New Jersey: The Treasury's Office of Revenue and Economic Analysis is estimating that FY 2020 budget revenues of $36.7 billion are projected to be $2.8 billion, or 7.0% lower than Feburary forecasts. Estimated budget shortfalls for FY 2020 and FY 2021 were $10.1 billiion below previous estimates. (Published May 13.)

New Mexico: As reported by the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group, recurring revenues for FY 2020 could decline by $370 million to $480 million below the December 2019 forecast. (Published May 5.)

New York: In a letter to Governor Andrew Cuomo (D), State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli estimated tax revenue would be between $4 billon and $7 billion below projections for fiscal year 2020. New York’s fiscal year ended on March 31. (Published March 17.)

North Carolina: The Fiscal Research Division and the Office of State Budget and Management reported April 2020 revenues were $1.2 billion or 31.5% below expectations.The state projects a revised forecast of $1.64 billion below, or 6.6% under-collection for FY 2020. (Published May 22)

North Dakota: The North Dakota Legislative Council reports a March 2020 decline in individual income tax and corporate income tax revenues due to the delay in tax filling payments. Individual income tax revenues declined by $10.7 million or 59%, while corporate income tax declined by $1.8 million or 31%. Despite reductions, overall revenues were 10% higher than projections. (Published April 20.)

Oklahoma: March general revenue fund collections were $18.3, or 3.6% below the monthly estimate, according to the Office of Management & Enterprise Services. Collections for fiscal year 2020 are $79.6, or 1.5% below estimates. Natural gas collections saw the most severe drop at 52.3% below, or $19.8 million below estimates. Sales tax collections declined by $19.4 million, or 10.5% below estimates. Other major tax category declines included, gross production tax (-28.7%) corporate income tax (-6.5%), and oil collections (-9.3%). (Published April 14.)

Pennsylvania: The Independent Fiscal Office is projecting total General Fund revenues of $31.8 billion, or a 8.9% decline over the prior fiscal year for FY 2019-20. For FY 2020-21 After adjusting for the delayed due dates the FY 2019-20 year-over-year decline is 2.7%. (Published May 26.)

The IFO April revenue collections were down by $2.16 billion, or 49.8% less than projections released in August 2019. Sales and use tax collections fell short of estimates by $357.3, or 35.9%. Personal income tax revenues were below estimates by $1.48 billion and $105 million is estimated to be permanently lost due to reduced economic activity. (Published May 1.)

The IFO released a updated revenue projection for FY 2020 and a preliminary projection for FY 2021 using two scenarios for business closures due to COVID-19. Scenario 1 lifts the business closure mandate after six weeks (April 27) and after 10 weeks (May 25) in scenario 2. For both FY 2020 and FY 2021 combined, the IFO projects revenues falling by 2.7 billion (S1) and $3.9 billion (S2). Furthermore, unemployment claims could cost the state between $4.5 billion and $6 billion by the end of FY 2021. The estimates do not take into account the effects of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) federal stimulus package. (Published April 8.) 

Texas: Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar reported April state sales tax revenue dropped by 9.3% from April 2019, the state's steepest decline since January 2010. Sales tax revenue accounts for 57% of all tax collections in Texas. For more information on the state's monthly revenue collections, visit this page. (Published May 1.)

South Carolina: Assuming the U.S. gross domestic product declines by 20% and economic and social activity resumes by June, the Board of Economic Advisors projects tax revenues to fall by $507 million, or 15.5% by the end of FY 2020 from previous estimates. Personal income tax revenues will grow by 2.5% for FY 2021, 2% less than previously estimated. FY 2021 general fund revenues could decline by $643 million, or 257.5% below February estimates. (Published April 9.)

Vermont: According to an update by the Joint Fiscal Office on April 28, FY 2020 general fund revenues are projected to decline by $48 million, or 3% less from January's 2020 forecast. Overall, in Vermont's three primary funds, the general fund, transportation fund, and education fund, total revenue loss is estimated to be $146 million, or a 6% loss from the previous FY 2020 forecast. (Published, April 28). 

In early April the Joint Fiscal Office, estimated Vermont to lose at least $391 million in deferred revenue. The loss represents a total $204-$208 million reduction in the general fund for FY 2020, a modest improvement compared to $230 million in a previous estimate published on March 24. The state education and transportation funds has also seen a significant revenue downgrade, at $142 million, and $45 million less than forecasted in January for the current fiscal year. (Published April 7.)

For more fiscal information relating to Vermont's COVID-19 actions, visit the state's resource site.

Wyoming: In a forecast by the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group, total general fund revenue for for FY 2020 was reduced by $108.6 million, or 9.1%. (Published May 27.) 

The Legislative Service Office (LSO) estimates general fund revenue could fall by $254.6 million to $1.4 billon over the next 27 months (one biennium, plus three months in the current fiscal year). Overall revenues could fall between $550 million to $2.8 billion. Sales and use taxes and oil tax income are the most uncertain in LSO's estimates. Sales and use taxes could drop up to $869 million and oil tax revenue could see over a $1 billion decline by the end of fiscal year 2022. Oil tax income estimates were made before crude oil barrels dropped below $0 on April 20. (Published April 10.)

FY 2021 State Revenue Projections 

Alaska: FY 2021 is projected to have $815 million decline in general funds. FY 2021 oil prices are projected to be $37 per barrel, rising to $53 per barrel by FY 2029. (Published April 6, Department of Revenue.)

Arizona: In a revenue and budget briefing to the Finance Advisory Committee, the JLBC projected a $600-$1.6 billion revenue shortfall for FY 2021 assuming current fiscal year shortfalls are rolled into FY 2021. JLBC proposed statutorily withdrawing $973 million from Arizona's rainy day. (April 9).

Arkansas: In a letter to Legislative Council Chairs, the Department of Administration revised the Official Revenue Forecast for FY 2021 down $205.9 million from the previous forecast in January 2020. (Published April 2.)

California: According to the Legislative Analyst Office, under an optimistic U-shaped recession scenario assumption, the state would be facing a $18 billion deficit and under the pessimistic L-shaped recession scenario, a $31 billion deficit for FY 2021. The state has $16 billion in total reserves, however only $10 billion are accessible for the coming fiscal year. (Published May 8.)

Colorado: Legislative Council Staff reported revenue collections are expected to fall 11.6 percent further from reduced FY 2019-20 levels and total $10.3 billion. Revenue expectations were reduced $2.4 billion, or 19.0 percent, relative to the March 2020 forecast. (May 12.)

FY 2021 general fund revenue expectations were reduced by 749.9 million relative to December 2019 expectations, eliminating a Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) surplus. Individual income tax revenue was reduced by $527 million, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the reduction in FY 2021 general fund revenue. Corporate Income tax revenue was reduced by $77 million. (Published March 16, Legislative Council Staff.)

The general fund revenue was revised downward from the state’s December 2019 forecast and $400 million for fiscal year 2021. (Published March 16, Office of State Planning and Budgeting.)

Connecticut: The state's Consensus Revenue Estimates revised general fund revenues and special transportation revenues downward for the current fiscal year, FY 2021 and next three ensuring fiscal years from January estimates. General fund revenues are now estimated to drop $2.2 billion, or a 11%. reduction. The special transportation fund is expected to decline by $200 million, or a 10.7% reduction from January. (Published April 30, Office of Fiscal Analysis and the Office of Policy and Management.)

Despite economic disruptions, tax filing deadlines, and stock market volatility, the Comptroller is estimating the Budget Reserve Fund year-end balance to be $2.24 billion, or 13 percent of net general fund appropriations for FY 2021. (Published April 1.)

Delaware: The Delaware Economic and Financial Advisory Council lowered dropped projections for FY 2021 by $94.1 million. (Published March 16.)

District of Columbia: The Office of the Chief Financial Officer reduced FY 2021 individual income tax revenues projections by $187 million, or a decline of 1.7% relative FY 2020. . (Published, April 24.)

Hawaii: The Council on Revenues estimates general fund tax revenue will drop 12% during FY 2021. (Presented May 28.)

FY 2021 revenue estimates were lowered from 4% to 0%. The coronavirus is likely to have a significant effect on the state's economy due to the expected decrease in tourism spending and supply chain distributions with China and other countries. (Published March 13, Council on Revenues .)

Illinois:  FY 2021 general fund state source revenues were revised down by $4.6 billion from a base revenue estimate of $38.5 billion (Published April 15, Governor's Office of Management and Budget.)

Kansas:  FY 2021 estimates detailed above. 

Louisiana: FY 2021 state general fund revenue is estimated to decline $867.5 million from the baseline forecast of April 2019 and drop $425 million from the new lower from April 2020 FY 20 forecast. Collections are expected to be particularly negative for sales, gaming, motor fuel, and gaming taxes. (Published May 11, Revenue Estimating Conference.)

Maryland: The state could see a shortfall between $2.1 and $2.6 billion in general fund revenue for FY 2021 according the the Bureau of Revenue Estimates.(Published May 12.)

Michigan: Total tax revenue is projected to decline by $3 billion by the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference. (Published May 15.)

Minnesota: According to the Management and Budget Office, Minnesota is projecting a deficit of $2.426 billion for the current biennium. The deficit is almost $4 billion below February forecasts. General fund revenue is projected to be $2.61 billion, or 7.4% less than the previous forecast. Compared to the previous forecast. sales tax revenue is projected to be $1.35 bill, or 11.2% less and the corporate franchise tax is projected to generate $405 million, or 13% less. (Publish May 5.)

New Jersey: The Treasury's Office of Revenue and Economic Analysis is estimating that FY 2021 budget revenues of $33.8 billion are projected to be $7.3 billion, or 17.8% lower than Feburary forecasts. (Published May 13.)

New Mexico: As reported by the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group, recurring revenues for FY 2021 could decline by $1.8 billion to $2.4 billion, below the December 2019 forecast. (Published May 5.)

New York: The Department of Budget projects a FY 2021 $13.3 billion shortfall, or 14% decline in revenue from January estimates. (Published April 25.)

North Carolina: The Fiscal Research Division and the Office of State Budget and Management revised the FY 2021 forecast by $2.57 billion, or 9.9%. The forecast includes a $1 billion shift out of FY 2020 and into FY 2021 due to delayed tax payments. (Published May 22.)

Pennsylvania: The Independent Fiscal Office is projecting total general fund revenues of $36.07 billion a growth rate of 13.5% over FY 2019-20. The increase is primarily due to delayed tax payment due dates that shifted dollars out of FY 2019-20 and into FY 2020-21. After adjusting for the delayed due dates the FY 2020-21 year-over-year increase is projected to be $38 million, or 0.1%. (Published May 26.)

South Carolina: Assuming the U.S. gross domestic product declines by 20% and economic and social activity resumes by June, the Board of Economic Advisors projects FY 2021 general fund revenues to decline by $643 million, or 27.5% below February estimates. (Published April 9.)

Vermont: According to an update by the Joint Fiscal Office on April 28, FY 2021 general fund revenues are project to decline by $266 million, or 16.7% less then January estimates. Overall, in Vermont's three primary funds, the general fund, transportation fund, and education fund, total revenue loss is estimated to be $430 million, or a 17.4% loss from the previous FY 2021 forecast. (Published April 28, Joint Fiscal Office.)

Wyoming:  In a forecast by the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group, total general fund revenue for the FY 2021-2022 biennium is forecasted to reach $1.8 billion. This represents a substantial decrease of $448.5 million, or 19.8%) from the January 2020 forecast. (Published May 27.)

FY 2022-24 State Revenue Projections

California:The Legislative Analyst Office anticipates a multiyear period of deficits into FY 2024. Over the entire multiyear period, deficits sum to $64 billion in the U-shaped recession and $126 billion in the L-shaped recession. (Published May 8.)

Colorado: FY 2022 gross general fund revenue projections were reduced $378.9 million relative to December 2019 expectations. Individual income tax revenue was reduced by $291 million. (Published March 16, Legislative Council Staff.)

Connecticut: The state's Consensus Revenue Estimates revised general fund revenues and special transportation revenues downward for the current fiscal year, FY 2022 and next three ensuring fiscal years from January estimates. General fund revenues are now estimated to drop $2.4 billion, or a 11.8%. reduction. The Special transportation fund is expected to decline by $184.8 million, or a 9.2% reduction from January. (Published April 30, Office of Fiscal Analysis and the Office of Policy and Management.)

Maryland:The Bureau of Revenue Estimates estimates a general fund revenue loss between $2.6 billion and $4 billion. (Published May 14.)

New Mexico: According to the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group, recurring revenues for FY 2022 could decline by $1.3 billion, to $2.1 billion, or 17% to 28% below the FY 2021 operating budget. (Published May 5.)

New York: The FY 2021 Enacted State Budget Financial Plan also estimates a $61 billion decline through FY 2024 as a consequences of COVID-19. (Published April 25, Department of Budget.)

Wyoming:  See above for FY 2021-2022 biennium forecast. 

Additional Resources