State revenue growth is slowing—especially when compared with the past three years. But that didn’t deter state policymakers from enacting new tax relief measures in 2024. And so continues a tax cutting trend that started in 2021. Since then, all but two states have cut taxes in some way, shape or form. The impetus for all the cuts was a surge in pandemic-era tax collections, which was driven by more than $800 billion in federal stimulus, increased consumer spending on goods subject to sales taxes, and a tight labor market that boosted incomes and lowered unemployment.
Now, after years of sky-high growth, state revenue collections are falling back to earth. Federal stimulus funding is winding down, public expenditures have increased and states are beginning to feel the effects of past tax cuts. These factors, combined with a slower rate of revenue growth and smaller surpluses than 2021 and 2022, present a more cautionary picture for states moving forward. Even so, most states remain on solid fiscal footing, and state lawmakers spent another legislative session looking at ways to cut taxes.
NCSL Forecast ’25
This special report from State Legislatures News covers the topics NCSL’s policy experts anticipate will occupy state lawmakers’ time in 2025 legislative sessions. Read the full report here.
NCSL surveys state fiscal offices each year about enacted tax changes and publishes the results in State Tax Actions. The 2024 survey identified the following tax trends.
Hot Topic: Property Tax Relief
In a switch from the past three years, lowering property taxes beat out cutting income taxes as the most popular state tax action of 2024. This is a welcome move for most taxpayers because property taxes are notoriously unpopular, and tax bills have been going up due to rising home values. As of the second quarter of the year, the median home price stood at about $412,000, a 20% increase over the median price of $329,000 in the first quarter of 2020. It’s no wonder lawmakers want to provide relief to homeowners amid affordability concerns and the rise in cost of living.
Hot Topic: Income Tax Cuts
Federal aid to states and individuals following the COVID-19 pandemic created a unique economic landscape in which states saw strong revenue collections, large budget surpluses and inflation at a rate not seen since the 1980s. In response, more than half the states cut income tax rates beginning in 2021. Today, inflation has cooled and states remain strong economically, but they have begun to experience slowing revenue collections and smaller budget surpluses. This decline resulted in a shift of priorities during the 2024 legislative session. Fewer states enacted across-the-board income tax cuts and instead focused on targeted relief, particularly tax benefits for families with children.
Trending: Tax Incentives for Business Investments
States routinely use tax incentives to encourage business investments in new projects, technologies and infrastructure. These incentives often are designed with specific goals in mind: fostering economic growth, supporting certain sectors of the economy, creating jobs, promoting innovation or attracting foreign investment. By reducing the cost of capital and providing favorable tax treatment, states can enhance the likelihood that businesses will expand their operations and explore new markets.
Trending: Sales Tax Exemptions
Going into the 2024 legislative session, lawmakers were still responding to consumer concerns over inflation on everyday goods. Likewise, businesses faced an increase in the cost of daily operations. To minimize the financial strain on individuals and businesses, states responded by enacting sales tax exemptions on a variety of goods.
Heading into 2025, with clear signs that revenue growth is slowing, states will likely take a more cautious approach as policymakers face choices about spending priorities in the coming year. States will also be watching Washington with an eye on federal tax cuts that are set to expire in 2025.
Hot Topic: Budgeting for Natural Disasters
Natural disasters are increasing in frequency and severity, posing a threat not only to human life but also to state finances. Without adequate planning, states might experience more severe budget disruptions and strain on other public resources. States are increasingly looking at mitigation efforts as cost-saving measures.
ACTION: Some states, including Washington, have created specific funds for mitigation activities to ensure that resources are not pulled away for firefighting needs. States also recognize the value of accurate and accessible disaster spending data. In many cases, existing data is spread across different agencies, jurisdictions and fiscal cycles. Efforts are underway in California, for example, to better track recent state-funded mitigation activities.
Like states, local governments also face challenges securing funds to manage disasters, and states are using innovative funding and finance mechanisms to support them. For example, Arizona offers revolving loans to local governments if they need mitigation funds while they await federal reimbursement. Utah incentivizes local governments to invest in mitigation projects as a condition of receiving state fire suppression coverage and cost-share negotiation support.
Will the SALT Deduction Be Uncapped in 2025?
In addition to bipartisan measures such as an increase in the child tax credit, the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 made more controversial changes. One was placing a cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction that allowed a federal deduction for state taxes paid. The deduction largely benefits states with higher taxes, and the cap amounted to a costly increase for taxpayers in several states. Congressional leaders have hotly debated the SALT deduction, with a small bicameral, bipartisan coalition seeking its return, but that effort stalled. States have adapted to the cap by using pass-through entities as an option for deductions.
NCSL has made state priorities known to federal policymakers and will continue to advocate for states as the new Congress considers tax policy. For more information, please contact Brian Wanko.