From fiscal challenges to tech innovations and workforce dynamics, the legislative issues dominating state discussions are also setting the stage for federal priorities. As 2025 approaches, these topics will likely shape the national agenda, highlighting the interconnectedness of state and federal policymaking.
And given that about 45% of Congress formerly served as state legislators, that link is even more notable, Susan Frederick, NCSL senior federal affairs counsel, told a recent meeting for NCSL Foundation members in Washington, D.C.
With a new Republican trifecta in place, Frederick expects President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda to heavily influence congressional priorities.
Significant deregulatory impacts are anticipated, potentially leading to new or revised regulations. “There will be more of a balance between what we consider to be federalism and letting states govern,” Frederick adds.
Want to Dig Deeper?
Forecast ’25: A Look at 2025’s Trending Legislative Topics
This special report from State Legislatures News brings you in-depth insights from NCSL experts on what lies ahead for state lawmakers in 2025. Read the Forecast ’25 report.
Fiscal Issues
Fiscal stability is a major concern at both state and federal levels. Key areas include:
- Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017: With provisions set to expire at the end of 2025, efforts to make some of them permanent are likely. “We expect this to move within the first 100 days of the new Congress,” Frederick says.
- Affordable Care Act tax credits: These credits, which lower premium costs, are also expiring and may be included in broader tax legislation.
- Business tax provisions: Discussions may include research and development tax policy, bonus depreciation, removing taxes on service worker tips and a potential first-time homebuyer tax credit.
NCSL’s Susan Frederick
Read NCSL’s full fiscal forecast.
Cannabis Policy
NCSL has actively engaged with the Safer Banking Act for several years, focusing on facilitating cannabis banking. On the regulatory side, the possible reclassification of cannabis as a Schedule III substance would enhance research opportunities.
Immigration and Border Control
Immigration remains a contentious issue, with several key initiatives:
- Border security: The Trump administration aims to complete the border wall, increase funding for customs and border control officers and reinvigorate the 287(g) program, a voluntary agreement for state and local immigration enforcement.
- Asylum process reforms: Efforts are being made to tighten restrictions to address perceived laxity in the process.
- Bipartisan border bill: This bill, which gained attention last year but did not pass both houses of Congress, may resurface.
Disaster Management
Both favorable and unfavorable disaster management legislation may be discussed:
- EQUIP Act:NCSL opposes this act due to its unfunded mandate. “We feel that it diverts resources from disaster mitigation efforts that states are putting into place,” Frederick says. “However, with the advent of more severe disasters impacting the states on an annual basis, it could very well be back in some form or another in the new Congress.”
- Disaster Management Costs Modernization Act: NCSL supports this bill for its potential to consolidate management functions and enhance resource pooling. “We would really like to see this bill come back, and we will work to get it reintroduced in the 119th” Congress, Frederick says.
Technology and Cybersecurity
Technology issues, particularly those affecting children, are high on the federal agenda:
- Kids' Online Safety and Privacy Act: Frederick says there may be action in the lame duck on this bipartisan effort to enhance online safety for children.
- Crypto regulation: Divisive debates continue about the appropriate regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.
- Artificial intelligence: Expect heavy debates, with a focus on balancing innovation and regulation.
- Broadband and connectivity: Broadband access continues to be a critical issue at the federal level, and discussions may address funding for the Affordable Connectivity Program and accurate census data to reflect connectivity needs.
Read NCSL’s technology and communication forecast.
Child Care and Workforce
There is bipartisan support for quality child care, seen as both a workforce and an economic issue.
- Child Care Development Fund: There is potential for increased congressional funding of this federal program, which provides states with the flexibility to customize child care systems.
- Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act: Efforts to reauthorize this key piece of legislation are anticipated.
Read NCSL’s labor and employment forecast.
Environment and Energy
Environmental and energy policies are also in focus:
- Permitting reform: The reversal of tax credits and incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act is possible.
- PFAS regulation: NCSL monitoring for protection and compensation measures for affected farmers is ongoing.
Read NCSL’s forecasts for energy and environmental policy.
Election Reform
Election reform remains a topic of interest, though it’s less contentious in this cycle:
- Ranked choice voting: A bill proposing to implement ranked choice voting for federal elections is under discussion.
- Let America Vote Act: This bipartisan bill aims to let unaffiliated voters participate in primaries for federal office and contains a provision prohibiting noncitizens from voting in any election.
Read NCSL’s forecast for elections policy.
Lesley Kennedy is NCSL’s director of publishing and digital content.