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State Elections 2024: 4 Trends to Watch on Election Night

With national attention on the top of the ticket, NCSL remains focused on state legislative and gubernatorial elections.

By Ben Williams  |  October 29, 2024

The endless political ads mean only one thing: We’re in the final stretch of the 2024 election. With media attention glued to the horse race at the top of the ticket, NCSL remains focused on state legislative and gubernatorial elections. The 5,808 legislators and 11 governors elected in 2024 (including special elections) will shape policies that matter to every American.

Heading into election night, Republicans hold the edge in nearly every statistic. They hold 55% of the nation’s state legislative seats, 57 of the nation’s 98 partisan legislative chambers (Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is officially nonpartisan) and 27 of the nation’s 50 governorships. Democrats control 44% of the nation’s legislative seats, 41 of the nation’s 99 legislative chambers and 23 of the nation’s 50 governorships. When the territories are included, Democrats gain some ground, but Republicans maintain their overall leads.

Here are four key trends to watch on election night:

1. Whichever party flips a chamber first will likely have a good night.

Since the 2010 midterms, party flips in each cycle have gone in only one direction. That means if a chamber flips from Democratic to Republican control, any and all subsequent flips have gone in that same direction. That’s true even when the states that elect their legislatures in odd-year cycles are included (Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia). If 2023 is a harbinger of what’s to come, Democrats should be happy. They flipped the Virginia House from Republican to Democratic control that year, the only chamber to change hands. So, in short, recent history indicates that the party that flips the first chamber on election night is likely to be the only party flipping chambers this November. But as always, past performance does not guarantee future results.

Partisan Control of Legislatures Since 2000 Election

hex map of u.s. showing partisan control of state legislatures since the 2000 election

 

2. The top of the ticket may not be predictive of state legislative outcomes.

It’s natural to assume that whatever happens at the top of the ticket will carry down to state legislative races. However, recent history shows that isn’t necessarily the case. For example, Democrats won the popular vote in the last two presidential cycles—in 2016 by just over 2% and in 2020 by 4.5%. But in both of those years, Democrats lost seats in state legislatures. Democrats have never netted state legislative seats when Donald Trump is on the ballot. Will that hold true this year, or will the trend reverse?

3. Divided government could fall to record lows.

“Schoolhouse Rock!” taught us how a bill becomes a law in Congress, and the same process is largely true for states, too. A bill is introduced and must pass both chambers (except in Nebraska) to be sent to the executive’s desk for a signature or veto. If signed, the bill becomes law; if vetoed, the bill returns to the legislature. Governors thus play a key role in what policies do and do not get enacted.

While governors being of the same party as the legislature isn’t a guarantee that bills will easily earn enactment, a legislature and governor of the same party often share some political consensus on which policies are best for their states. In these states, known as “trifectas,” a single party controls the levers of policymaking power.

Going into the election, Pennsylvania is the only state where the two legislative chambers are controlled by different parties (the governor is a Democrat). Just eight states have a legislature with a governor of the opposite party—Arizona, Kansas, Kentucky, Nevada, North Carolina, Vermont, Virginia and Wisconsin. Of these, only North Carolina has a gubernatorial election next week. But if any of these legislative chambers flip to the party of the governor—or, in North Carolina’s case, if the governor’s mansion flips to Republicans—divided government would be at record lows. And if a single chamber flips in Pennsylvania and all else holds equal, there would be no states with divided legislatures for the first time since at least 1900.

States With Governors Races in 2024

hex map of the u.s. showing states with governors races in 2024

 

4. We’ll likely see some change in which states have veto-proof majorities.

Trifectas are key, but there’s an added wrinkle to policymaking: What if the majority party in the legislature is so large that it can override a gubernatorial veto and ensure its bills become law? These so-called veto-proof majorities, also known as supermajorities, are at a historical high at 28: Republicans hold them in 19 states; Democrats hold them in nine.

Attaining veto-proof status can be as impactful for parties as having a trifecta. If the governor and legislature are controlled by different parties, a veto-proof majority gives the legislature a powerful way to pass laws regardless of the governor’s position. And even if the governor and legislature are of the same party, they don’t necessarily march to the same drummer. Any legislator will tell you having a “D” or an “R” beside one’s name doesn’t mean policymakers hold the same views. If—and it’s a big if—the legislature can marshal its veto-proof majority to vote in unison, it can singlehandedly run the show in certain states.

What makes a majority veto-proof varies by state. For example, West Virginia and Kentucky law allow vetoes to be overridden with a simple majority vote in each chamber. In North Carolina and Rhode Island, 60% of each chamber is needed. In Colorado and Nebraska, a two-thirds majority is required—as is the case with Congress.

The current record number of veto-proof majorities could increase. Six additional legislatures—Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and South Carolina—will have veto-proof majorities if just a handful of seats change from one party to the other. On the flip side, five states—Illinois, Missouri, New York, North Carolina and Vermont—have very narrow veto-proof majorities, where the minority could deprive the majority of veto-proof status by winning a handful of seats in either chamber.

Current Veto-Proof Majorities

hex map of u.s. showing states with veto-proof legislative majorities

 

NCSL’s website is the place to go for election news this year. Also, follow our X account to receive breaking news on election night, and find us on Facebook and LinkedIn to watch town halls where NCSL experts will break down exactly what happened.

Ben Williams is the associate director of NCSL’s Elections and Redistricting Program.

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