In a presidential campaign unlike any other, things have transformed dramatically in just a few weeks. From the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump to President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race to the naming of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as running mates, the 2024 election is unchartered territory.
To weigh in on the presidential horse race just 90 days away, longtime campaign experts Donna Brazile and Kellyanne Conway took the stage during the closing general session at the 2024 NCSL Legislative Summit in Louisville, Ky., offering their takes on the campaign, the need for civility in the election process and the importance of state legislators.
Conway, the first woman to manage a winning presidential campaign when she led Trump’s victory in 2016, says Harris’ replacement of Biden as the Democratic nominee makes it very difficult to predict who will win in November. She notes that while Harris is likely on track to win the popular vote, the electoral map favors Trump.
“I still think the race is Donald Trump’s to lose,” she says.
Brazile, the first Black woman to manage a major party presidential race when she ran former Vice President Al Gore’s campaign in 2000, however, says the Democratic party, experiencing a surge of exuberance and unification surrounding the Harris/Walz ticket, has been “unleashed.”
“We just needed a rationale to return to the spirit that we all believe as Americans we possess,” she says. “We want freedom, we want justice, we want a safe and secure country. We want someone who can not only carry the torch of freedom but also embodies what that freedom looks like.”
Still, Brazile adds, she’s certain the presidential race will come down to the final hours of the campaign. “This is not going to be an election where you will see a landslide.”
Both experts agree that, despite the extreme partisan divide gripping the nation, it’s crucial to remain civil throughout the election process. Conway says she looks forward to debates between the candidates, “but I want to see debates about policy.”
Brazile agrees. “I haven’t spent one day of my life disparaging anybody who supported Donald Trump,” she says. “You know why? Because they may be my neighbors. They’re my co-workers. I know I’ve seen them at football games.”
And while Democrats and Republicans may not agree on the same policies, demonizing opponents is not the answer.
“The American people want to have an honest conversation,” Brazile says. “I don’t want to hear who’s skinny or fat. I don’t want to hear who’s got a beard or who has a bald head. I want to hear their policies. What are you going to do for us now and tomorrow, and over the next four years?”
When it comes to elections at the state level, Conway says unlike those at the top of the ticket, candidates have a greater ability to really connect with voters in their own communities.
“It’s so easy to be enraged, but it’s essential to be engaged,” she says. “I feel that each of us should do a better job at finding the 10 or 12 things on which we agree and leading with those rather than the two things that we are never, ever going to do.”
Brazile adds that it was the work of lawmakers in her hometown that inspired her to get involved in politics.
“You are the people that we depend on, that actually know us, our community, our needs,” she says. “And when you galvanize us and you engage us, as Kellyann said, it makes democracy work.”
Lesley Kennedy is NCSL’s director of digital content and publishing.