Despite record spending in legislative races, the post-election state landscape is hardly different than it was before the election. Republicans scored modest, albeit important, gains, and Democrats retained most of their power bases.
In fact, party control of the nation’s legislative chambers has been remarkably, though not uniformly, steady. Over last 125 years, 11 to 12 chambers flipped in each two-year cycle. Recently, however, the rate has slowed. From 2012 forward, the average number of chamber flips has been eight or nine, and the three most recent elections had fewer than that: six flips in 2018, and just four in 2020 and ’22. So far this cycle, five chambers have changed.
“Partisan control of states seems to have entered a static era, with only minor shifts in the past few election cycles,” says NCSL CEO Tim Storey. “Generally, Republicans had a decent night in the states last Tuesday, but it could have been far worse for Democrats. In the end, the landscape is not very different than before Nov. 5.”
Storey points out that chamber control in the presidential battleground states was hard-fought. Democrats held onto the Minnesota Senate, both Nevada chambers and the Pennsylvania House. The only battleground chamber that changed hands was the Michigan House, though Democrats lost their majority in the Minnesota House to a tie.
By the time the next general election is held in 2026, Republicans will have held more legislative seats and controlled more legislative chambers than Democrats for 16 years. The last time either party held sway for so long it was the Democrats, from 1952 to 2002.
Partisan Control by the Numbers
|
|
Prior to 2024 Election
|
After 2024 Election (Preliminary)
|
|
Legislators
|
55% Republicans
|
4,081 or 55.25%
|
|
44% Democrats
|
3,237 or 43.83%
|
|
1.5% Other
|
68 or .92%
|
|
Legislative Chambers
|
57 Republican
|
57 Republican
|
|
41 Democratic
|
38 Democratic
|
|
0 Tie/No Majority
|
3 Tie/No Majority
|
|
Legislative Control
(both chambers together)
|
28 Republican
|
27 Republican
|
|
19 Democratic
|
17 Democratic
|
|
1 Divided
|
5 Divided
|
|
Governors
|
27 Republicans
|
27 Republicans
|
|
23 Democrats
|
23 Democrats
|
|
State Control
|
23 Republican
|
22 Republican
|
|
17 Democratic
|
14 Democratic
|
|
9 Divided
|
13 Divided
|
What Does the Data Show?
It’s all about building blocks, individual races being the blocks. Some legislative races have yet to be called, so these basic block will change a bit.
After races are called, the party controlling each chamber is known, and it’s easy to determine legislative control. Add in the governors, and you can figure out state control.
See NCSL’s Partisan Control page for frequent updates.
Legislative seats: Republicans appear on track to gain about 50 net seats among the 7,386 state legislative seats nationwide. That’s a small shift. On average, in general elections from 2000-22, 195 seats shifted (in presidential years, the average is 78; in midterms, it’s 312). The most shifts ever came in 2010, with 708.
In fact, this year’s changes barely moved the needle, nationwide. Before the election, the share of seats was 55% for Republicans, 44% for Democrats and a handful of independents. Without going out to decimals, those numbers have stayed the same.
Nationwide, the raw numbers aren’t as meaningful as how they are divvied up.
This year, in the Vermont Legislature, 26 Democratic seats moved to the Republicans. That’s huge—but not enough to topple Democratic leadership in either chamber. Democrats in Wisconsin and Montana made headway, largely due to new district maps used for the first time this year. Still, Republicans maintain control of both chambers in both states. The other seat changes were onesies and twosies throughout the states.
Chamber control: Heading into this week’s elections, Republicans held 57 chambers to the Democrats’ 41. (For those who are fact-checking, that totals 98. Nebraska is unicameral, and its senators are elected on a nonpartisan basis. It is often counted in the Republican camp, but here, it simply isn’t included.) If all leads hold, Republicans will control 57 chambers to the Democrats’ 38, with one tied chamber and two chambers without majorities.
Changes so far:
- The Michigan House flipped from D to R, breaking a Democratic trifecta.
- The Minnesota House (formerly held by Democrats) is now tied, breaking Minnesota’s D trifecta. Recounts are likely for two races, so the tie could quickly be broken .
- The Maine House is poised for coalition leadership; the Democrats won a plurality of seats but did not muster enough seats to govern alone, breaking its trifecta. How the chamber organizes remains to be seen, and recounts in close seats remain a possibility.
Ties in legislative chambers aren’t as rare as one might think. Since 2000, 15 chambers have been tied; the last one was the Connecticut Senate in 2016. (See NCSL’s In Case of a Tie page to learn how tied chambers work out power sharing. Fun fact: 39 chambers have an odd number of members, so ties are possible only when a seat is vacant.)
As for states where the winning party doesn’t get a majority, that isn’t rare, either. The Alaska Legislature is the usual example; going into this election, as has often been the case in recent years, both chambers had coalition leadership.
Legislative control: When both chambers in the same state are held by the same party, that party has legislative control. Going into the election, the Republicans controlled 28 legislatures, the Democrats 20. Just one state had divided control: Pennsylvania.
With Pennsylvania House Democrats retaining control in a narrow victory, the Keystone State remains a “split,” because Republicans held onto the Senate. Also emerging from the election with split status were Michigan, where the House flipped from D to R, and Minnesota, where the House went from D to a tie. Four states (including Maine and Alaska because of their coalitions) will have something other than one-party legislative control.
Splits are now back up to the average over the last decade. Recent history is all about unified control, with two splits in 2018 and just one in 2020. The high-water mark for splits followed the 1992 and 2000 elections, when 16 legislatures were split.
The news in Puerto Rico and Guam follows what happened in the states. Guam’s 15-seat Legislature flipped from Democratic to Republican control, 9-6, and control in both of Puerto Rico’s chambers flipped from the Popular Democratic Party to the New Progressive Party. The Puerto Rico parties don’t align entirely with the two U.S. major parties, but the newly elected majorities are more conservative than the outgoing parties.
State control: Increases in split legislative control lead to decreases in unified state control, when one party holds both chambers and the governorship—aka trifectas. This year bears that out.
Going into this election, 40 states had trifectas: 23 for Republicans,17 for Democrats, leaving nine states with divided state government. Forty was a record for trifectas since at least 1959, when Hawaii and Alaska joined the union.
The party of the governor did not change in any state—the first time that’s been true during a general election since at least 2000, and quite possibly much longer.
With executive control remaining steady, all the shifts to trifectas this year were driven by legislative changes. While things could still change, 36 states appear likely to have trifectas, with Democratic trifectas broken in Maine, Michigan and Minnesota (though Democrats could maintain functional control of Maine with votes from independent and unaffiliated legislators) .
The Alaska House and Arizona Senate have not been decided. The trend in tallied votes thus far points to Republicans maintaining their majority in the Arizona Senate. In the Alaska House, more Republicans held seats going into the election, though the chamber was governed by a coalition. Roughly a quarter of all votes have yet to be counted, but if all current leads hold, Republicans will lose their numerical majority and there could be a new coalition.
Leaders
As for legislative leaders, the NCSL Leaders’ Center projects that 27 to 32 chambers (depending on final counts) in the 50 states and four chambers in the five territories and Washington, D.C., will see a new legislator taking the reins this year. In general, that leader is the House speaker or the Senate president, but some chambers see the majority leader or president pro tempore as the top leader. See NCSL’s deep-dive analysis of leadership changes and full list of 2025 leadership positions.
Women in Legislatures
For three decades, the number of women serving in legislatures has been on the rise, though the data so far this year shows a minor rollback. After the 2022 election, 33% of all legislators were women; so far this year, there’s a dip to 32.8%, though many races remain uncalled. Before this election, Nevada’s Legislature had more women than men serving. Post-election, that remains true, and New Mexico joins that majority-female club . For final tallies and more information, contact the Women’s Legislative Network.
Wendy Underhill directs NCSL’s Elections and Redistricting Program.