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AI and the Courts Will Factor in Next Year’s Election Laws

Forecast ’25: Other top issues for 2025 include noncitizen voting, ranked choice voting and anything related to election officials.

By NCSL Staff  |  November 11, 2024

No surprise: In odd-numbered years—those that follow general elections—there’s a spike in election-related bills.

Many of the 3,000 or so bills likely to be introduced in the coming year will be part of the “continuous improvement” approach states take. They’ll address evergreen issues such as voter registration and how to cast and count ballots.

What happens in the election, administratively speaking, is likely to inspire more legislative action—and it’s uncertain what those bills might be. Even so, based on recent history, it’s a good bet that artificial intelligence, noncitizen voting, ranked choice voting and anything related to election officials—protections, compensation, responsibilities—will be in the mix.

Here’s a look at what might be in store for 2025.

NCSL Forecast ’25  

This special report from State Legislatures News covers the topics NCSL’s policy experts anticipate will occupy state lawmakers’ time in 2025 legislative sessions. Read the full report here

Hot Topic: Artificial Intelligence

Since public AI tools became widely available in late 2022, anxiety about the spread of deceptive AI-created media about candidates and elections has skyrocketed. In 2024, 15 states enacted legislation to regulate the use of AI in campaigns and political messaging, while Congress has yet to act.

ACTION: The most common approach to AI legislation: requiring disclosures stating when a piece of media—audio, image or video—was artificially generated. Of the 19 states with political messaging laws (14 from this year and five in place prior to 2024), only two take a different approach: Minnesota and Texas have prohibitions on AI-generated content that take effect in those states 90 and 30 days before an election, respectively.

In September, California became the first state to require websites to moderate their platforms for AI content. This differs from other states as it puts the responsibility for preventing deceptive media onto the private sector as opposed to the government or the candidates themselves.

The general election, when voters decided on the president, 435 U.S. representatives, 33 U.S. senators and over 5,800 state legislators, gave lawmakers much more real-world experience with AI in an election context. As they consider legislation for 2025, will they introduce more of the same? Will new approaches surface? And—perhaps most important—how will concerns over deception dovetail with the First Amendment? One safe prediction: The courts will play a role as new laws go into effect.

Hot Topic: Noncitizens and Voting

Federal law states that only U.S. citizens can vote in federal elections. Many states have further enshrined this requirement in their own laws. In November, voters in eight states elected to put it in their constitutions as well, joining four other states that have done so in recent years.

But how do we know our voters are all citizens? Most voters—those who register at motor vehicle bureaus while conducting driving-related business—are required to provide identification. If it’s a birth certificate, passport or naturalization certificate, that proves citizenship. If they show a green card or other identification, they won’t be offered the chance to register. For those who register online, the information the new registrant enters is cross-checked with DMV records.

Voters who register using the National Voter Registration Application form must check a box stating that they are U.S. citizens, under penalty of perjury.

If any noncitizens do end up on a voter registration list, they’re likely to be found through long-standing routine voter list maintenance processes. At least nine states require voter registration lists to be compared with jury lists for this purpose.

Some policymakers would like to require proof of citizenship before registration can be completed in all circumstances. On the federal front, Republicans in the U.S. House introduced the SAVE Act in 2024 to require individuals to provide documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections. The bill failed but is expected to be reintroduced in 2025.

ACTION: Lawmakers in many states are doubling down to ensure noncitizens aren’t registered, much less voting. Arizona requires proof of citizenship to register to vote, though this law has been caught up in litigation. For now, Arizonans who registered with the federal form are permitted to vote only in federal elections. In 2024, Indiana, New Hampshire and Louisiana all enacted similar proof-of-citizenship requirements.

Our bet: In 2025, legislation on list maintenance in general and to ensure only citizens can get on the rolls will increase.

Hot Topic: Ranked Choice Voting (Pro and Con)

Until 2024, ranked choice voting, also known as instant runoff voting, was just a wonky alternative to winner-take-all elections used mainly in municipal races (though Maine and Alaska both use it statewide). In 2024, this system, which lets voters choose multiple candidates in order of preference, got hot: Those who like it were able to place citizen initiatives on ballots in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada and Washington, D.C., though in November, the measures were rejected everywhere except the district. In 10 states, lawmakers who do not like it passed laws to prohibit its use—and with votes still being counted as of press time, Alaskans looked likely to repeal their ranked choice voting system.

Rather than declaring the candidate with the most votes the winner, ranked choice voting requires that a candidate receive a majority of votes to win. Proponents claim this system creates more competitive elections and reduces political polarization; opponents claim ranked voting confuses voters and, because of ballot exhaustion, does not necessarily result in a majority vote winner.

Our crystal ball shows many more ranked voting laws, potentially pro and definitely con, being introduced in legislative chambers in 2025.

Hot Topic: Mail/Absentee Ballot Return

Between 2020 and 2024, many states tweaked their laws on mail/absentee ballots—when and how they could be returned, when processing could begin, and whether and how voters could fix, or “cure,” a discrepancy identified during the absentee/mail ballot verification process. Many of the laws were stress-tested for the first time this year and will likely trigger additional tweaks.

As the U.S. Postal Service struggles to ensure on-time delivery of ballots, states may want to look at requirements regarding when blank mail/absentee ballots need to be mailed to voters and when they must be received to be counted, and the methods voters can use to return their ballots. Are drop boxes available and, if so, what security features do they have? Can voters drop off ballots at election offices or polling locations? How much time after an election can a voter have to cure a mail/absentee ballot—whether it’s a missing or mismatched signature or other absent information?

ACTION: Since 2020, every state has modified its procedures for handling mail/absentee ballots. Some states have changed the process to apply for a ballot, and three states shifted to sending mail/absentee ballots to all active registered voters, bringing the total of mostly-mail states to eight plus Washington, D.C. They have also considered laws on ballot drop boxes, often explicitly permitting them or prohibiting them, and they have tweaked timelines for mail/absentee processes at several points.

Our bet: The trend toward fine-tuning mail/absentee voting processes will continue, particularly relating to signature verification, drop box regulations and timelines.

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