Four traditionally Republican-leaning states could become battlegrounds in 2020, says political analyst Louis Jacobson.
"The emergence of these new battleground states ... Texas, Arizona and Georgia, and then you can also throw in North Carolina, are definitely interesting," said Jacobson, senior author of "The 2020 Almanac of American Politics," during an interview for NCSL's "Our American States" podcast.
"I mean Democrats are making so much progress in the suburbs that these sorts of states are increasingly in reach to a degree that some of the swingier states won by Democrats might not be.
"But really in terms of 2020, I'm still banking on the center of gravity being the three key state which switched from Democrats to Trump in 2016, which would be Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Especially Wisconsin, I think, has the best shot at being kind of a make-or-break state for either side."
The 2020 edition of the Almanac, called "the bible of American politics" by columnist George Will and weighing in at more 2,000 pages, contains profiles of every member of Congress, every governor and narrative profiles of every state and congressional district.
Also featured: updated demographic information for every state and district, including information from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, with new categories of economic, occupational, social and geographic data, updated veteran status data, new health care data including the rate of insured vs. uninsured in each congressional district, lists of statewide elected officials and updated voter registration data.
Jacobson said he did a lot of research into the election results of the 2016 presidential election, drilling down really to the county level in several states to see where voting shifts happened. "A lot of the rural districts that might have been open to a Democrat became more and more Republican," he says in the podcast.
Visit the Almanac site to purchase the book and use the code LOUISANDFRIENDS.