By Lisa Soronen

Even though there was no disagreements among the federal circuit courts of appeals at the time, court watchers were shocked when the U.S. Supreme Court denied certiorari—essentially declined to hear the case—in a series of cases striking down same-sex marriage bans.

All eyes then turned to the 9th and 6th U.S. Circuit Courts of Appeals, which had pending cases. The next day the 9th Circuit struck down Nevada’s and Idaho’s ban. On Nov. 6 the 6th Circuit became the first federal circuit court to uphold bans in four states—Michigan, Tennessee, Ohio, and Kentucky.

In 12 bullet points, Lyle Denniston of SCOTUSblog summarizes the 6th Circuit’s majority opinion.

Judge Jeffrey Sutton of the 6th Circuit eloquently explains why he parted company with his colleagues who decided the other cases: “When the courts do not let the people resolve new social issues like this one, they perpetuate the idea that the heroes in these change events are judges and lawyers. Better, in this instance, we think, to allow change through the customary political processes, in which the people, gay and straight alike, become the heroes of their own stories by meeting each other not as adversaries in a court system but as fellow citizens seeking to resolve a new social issue in a fair-minded way.” 

While the Supreme Court doesn’t resolve every circuit split immediately, given the significance of this issue it would be shocking if the court didn’t resolve it shortly.

As Lyle Denniston describes on SCOTUSblog, this does not necessarily mean that the court will hear the 6th Circuit’s case. The 9th Circuit ruling could also be appealed or the court could grant review in a case pending, not yet decided, from another circuit. 

But the mostly likely outcome—now that we know none of the plaintiffs will ask all of the 6th Circuit judges to rehear the case—is that the court will accept the 6th Circuit case for review. 

So maybe the only question is will the court hear the case this term or next? That will depend on when the petitions for certiorari are filed. If the court doesn’t grant cert by its last conference in January the case will be heard next term.

Lisa Soronen is the executive director of the State and Local Legal Center and writes frequently for the NCSL blog about the U.S. Supreme Court.