By Morgan Cullen
A Republican tsunami swept through America’s state legislatures in the 2010 midterm elections, changing the national political landscape in historic terms. Republicans netted 725 state legislative seats and wrested control of 21 chambers—the most since the Great Depression.
Democrats bounced back in 2012, gaining 150 seats and taking back eight chambers they lost in 2010 but they did so with a victorious President Obama on the top of the ticket. Midterm elections almost always disfavor the party in the White House. Since 1902, the party holding the White House lost seats in legislatures 26 of 28 times.
If historical trends continue, the political landscape should be encouraging to Republicans but the GOP should not expect another midterm miracle ala 2010.
Perhaps the biggest challenge facing Republicans in 2014 is the fact that most state legislatures are already under GOP control. The current partisan breakdown in state legislatures is 57 Republican-held chambers and 41 Democratic held chambers. In the run-up to the 2010 election, the Democrats held a 62-36 lead in chambers. Given that the state legislative map is already painted mostly red, it will be nearly impossible for Republicans to duplicate the kind of success they had in the last midterm.
Out of the 7,383 total state legislative seats, 6,049 in 46 states are up for election. Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia hold legislative races in odd numbered years. In Kansas, Minnesota, New Mexico, and South Carolina only House seats, not Senate ones, are up. And Nebraska has a nonparisan unicameral legislature.
Both major parties are fielding candidates in only about 75 percent of state legislative races. And in only about 15 states are the Democratic and Republican numbers close enough for the minority party to have a realistic chance to come out on top.
While the Democrats added eight chambers to the Republicans' five following the 2012 election, they still have a lot of catching up to do to make a serious dent in the Republicans' 18-chamber advantage. Republicans control both chambers in 27 states. Democrats do so in 19 states.
Iowa, Kentucky and New Hampshire are the only states where legislative control is split. Republicans have a majority of seats in 57 state chambers, Democrats in 41 chambers and the District of Columbia. There are 3,836 Republican state legislators, 3,448 Democrats and 26 third-party lawmakers. Nebraska has 49 nonpartisan senators and the remaining seats are vacant.
Of the 88 chambers holding elections this year, only 17 are legitimately in play for both parties, far fewer than the 24 chambers that were competitive in 2012 or the 27 in the 2010 midterm election.
Lou Jacobson, a writer for the St. Petersburg Times’ Pulitzer Prize-winning Politifact, rates legislative elections every two years. He believes the political landscape for state legislators is particularly ominous for Democrats this year simply because they will be playing defense in more legislative chambers and in more states. “What should worry Democrats heading into November is that they have more chambers at risk than the Republicans do. Of the 17 at-risk chambers this year, 11 are held by Democrats and only six are held by the GOP.”
The two Democratic-held chambers Jacobson lists as the most vulnerable are the West Virginia House and the New Hampshire House. He also has the Colorado Senate, the Iowa Senate, the Nevada Senate and the New Mexico House rated as tossups. The only state in the Republican column listed as a tossup is the New York Senate, which is actually majority Democrat. Republicans currently maintain a governing majority of the chamber through a coalition of cross-over Democrats. All other states are reported as leaning Republican.
“If there’s no strong national wave for one party or another, this lineup of competitive chambers suggests that the GOP is poised to pick up two or three chambers this fall," Jacobson said. "With some wind at its back, the GOP could net as many as seven or eight chambers, or with the breeze blowing the other way, the Democrats could net perhaps two chambers.”
Perhaps the most striking chamber on Jacobson’s list is the New Hampshire House where Democrats currently hold a 41-seat majority in the 400-member body. While the Democrats may appear to have a comfortable majority, the New Hampshire electorate has proved particularly volatile the past two elections cycles. Four years ago, Republicans won the state in grand fashion when they picked up 122 seats only to lose it two years later when Democrats won back 120 seats and regained the majority.
Another interesting state in play is the Arkansas House, which the Democrats lost following the 2012 election. In 1990, no legislative chambers in the South were held by the GOP. Today, the Republican party holds a majority in every chamber across the region. Republicans in the state currently hold just a three-seat majority in the chamber and it is the Democrats best chance at regaining a foothold in a region that was once solid blue.
Morgan Cullen is a senior policy specialist for NCSL.
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