Same-Sex Marriage Bans Poised to Fail?

Same-Sex Marriage Bans Poised to Fail?

October 25, 2006

Polls indicate that same-sex marriage bans are either very close or leaning toward failing in several states:

A late July poll from South Dakota indicated that 49% of voters opposed banning same-sex marriage, a surprise result from a conservative state.
Recent polls from Arizona are contradictory, with one indicating that 48% of voters oppose the same-sex marriage ban while just 41% favor it, and the other indicating 51% support it.
Colorado polls indicate that voters favor banning same-sex marriage, but at the same time also favor establishing rights and benefits for couples in domestic partnerships.
A Washington Post poll of Virginia voters yielded particularly interesting results – when asked simply whether they supported or opposed same-sex marriage, 41% favored it and 49% were opposed. But when voters were read a short statement of the arguments from both sides, their opinions changed, with just 48% in favor and 47% opposed.

If any of these measures were to fail, it would be a first – a total of 21 states have considered ballot measures defining marriage as between one man and one woman, and not a single measure has failed to pass. In fact, most pass with overwhelming margins – the average of the “yes” votes in these 21 states is 73%, and the lowest “yes” vote any of these measures has received was 56.6% in Oregon in 2004.

Americans’ opposition to same-sex marriage may have cooled somewhat since 2004. A poll conducted by the Pew Research Center in March indicates that public opposition to same-sex marriage declined from 63% in February 2004 to 51% in March 2006.

Another factor may be that opponents of the marriage bans have changed tactics since 2004. In a number of states this year, they are centering their arguments around the idea that prohibiting legal statuses similar to marriage (something all of this year’s proposed same-sex marriage bans do, with the exception of Colorado’s) may limit the rights of certain heterosexual couples as well. They argue, for instance, that employers who currently provide health benefits to unmarried spouses of employees would no longer be able to do so.

Campaign spending may also be playing a role. Campaign reports filed in several states indicate that supporters of same-sex marriage have raised and spent far more than those who favor banning it:

Supporters of the Ban

Opponents of the Ban

Raised

Spent

Raised

Spent

Arizona

Includes data thru 10/2/06

$522,845

$524,086

$1,041,909

$834,416

Colorado

Includes data thru 10/11/06

$866,011

$768,412

$1,905,064

$1,402,787

Virginia

Includes data thru

$206,242

$138,590

$859,249

$467,502

Source: Data obtained by NCSL from campaign finance filings posted online; October 2006.

It is generally easier to defeat a ballot measure than to convince voters to pass it. Voters are naturally skeptical, and more easily persuaded to vote in favor of maintaining the status quo than to support a new idea they’re not sure of or not completely familiar with. We won’t know until after November 7^th if this conventional wisdom holds true in the case of this year’s same-sex marriage bans.

For more information about ballot measures, contact Jennie Drage Bowser in NCSL’s Denver office.