NCSL Influenza Report
February 2007
Overview
A global emergence of avian influenza has made state and local authorities mindful of the potential impact a pandemic of any origin may have on our daily lives. Even the most common forms of influenza will hospitalize on average more than 200,000 people every year. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), infections caused by influenza virus A or B have resulted in 36,000 deaths in the United States between 1990 and 1999. Over the last three years avian influenza has claimed the lives of 241 people in 10 countries as well as adversely affecting the poultry industry worldwide. Many scientists believe it is only a matter of time until the next influenza pandemic occurs. Shortages of the influenza vaccine supply in three of the last five flu seasons and the possibility of an outbreak of more serious strains of influenza have called into question the nations ability to endure a pandemic outbreak.
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The Economic Impact of Pandemic Flu |
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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) produced a report assessing the possible macroeconomic effects of an avian flu pandemic in December 2005 and then updated in July 2006. It devises two scenarios to outline possible short and long term economic effects a pandemic may have. The report assumes that in a mild pandemic approximately 25 percent of the population would be affected with a fatality rate of 0.1 percent. On average each infected individual would be absent from work for approximately four days. Under these conditions the gross domestic product (GDP) would decline by 1/2 percent (about $70 billion in 2004) as a result of supply-side factors. For the demand-side effects, CBO assumed that the declines in each industry would be one-quarter of the declines under the severe scenario, which amounted to 1/2 percent of GDP (about $60 billion in 2004). In total, the decline in output amounts to about one percent of GDP, relative to what would have happened in the absence of a pandemic.
The Congressional Research Service (CRS) assessed the agricultural issues in respect to an outbreak of avian flu in a report they published May 10, 2006. This report estimates that the greatest impact on the industry will arise from international trade bans which will affect farms well outside a quarantine area. In 2005 export prices dropped 13 percent from the decline in shipments to Eastern Europe and Central Asia in November and December. The United States is the world's largest producer and exporter of poultry meat and second-largest egg producer. Five states account for 60 percent of U.S. production: Georgia (15%), Arkansas (14%), Alabama (13%), Mississippi (9%), and North Carolina (9%). The U.S. exports about 16% of its poultry production.
Private Sector Economic Impact Analysis
International Monetary Fund Report: THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPACT OF AN AVIAN FLU PANDEMIC AND THE ROLE OF THE IMF
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/afp/2006/eng/022806.pdf
FAO Report - Protect Poultry -- Protect People
http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/207623/FAO_HPAI_messages.pdf
FAO Preparing for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/200354/HPAI_manual.pdf | |
For further information, please call NCSL staff Joy Johnson Wilson, Health Policy Director at 202-624-8689 or Rachel Morgan RN, BSN, Senior Health Policy Specialist at 202-624-3569.
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