Tim Storey is NCSL's director of state services and a senior elections analyst.

Even to the most veteran analysts, operatives, reporters and politicians, this election year has unfolded like no other in modern history. The success of Donald Trump in winning the GOP nomination surprised everyone save his most ardent supporters. His campaign has been unpredictable and a stark contrast to the campaign of Democratic standard-bearer Hillary Clinton, which has appeared overly cautious at times, as if it comes straight from a “How to Run a Campaign” textbook—perhaps to a fault.

For the more than 10,000 candidates seeking state legislative seats this year, the wild race for the White House might feel like watching their investments rise and fall with the stock market. They have relatively little control over the stocks’ success, yet how they perform has a dramatic impact on their future. Likewise, state lawmakers have very little influence over their party’s presidential campaign, yet how their candidate performs can affect their political future immensely.

On Nov. 8, officials will tally the ballots to determine the winners of 5,915 regularly scheduled elections for legislative seats in 86 chambers in 44 states. That’s more than 80 percent of all the 7,383 state legislators nationwide. (The only ones not in the race this year are legislators in Alabama and Maryland who were elected in 2014 and serve four year terms, all Michigan senators, and all lawmakers from Louisiana, Mississippi New Jersey and Virginia, as these states hold legislative elections in odd numbered years.)

How High Can the GOP Go?

Republicans have dominated control of state legislatures since 2010, when Democrats lost a whopping 24 chambers. That was extraordinary, given that since 1900, only 12 chambers typically switch control every two years. Democrats retook eight chambers in the 2012 presidential election, but also lost five chambers to the GOP. Republicans roared right back in 2014, taking over 11 more chambers, including the West Virginia House and Senate for the first time in 83 years.

Currently, Republicans control 68 percent (67 of 98) of the partisan legislative chambers in the country. (The Nebraska Legislature is unicameral and nonpartisan, so is not counted in this total.) That’s more than at any other time in the history of the Republican Party. They also hold more total seats, well over 4,100 of the 7,383, than they have since 1920. And in 30 states, Republicans have the majority in both chambers of the legislature.

Democrats control 31 chambers. They lead both chambers in 12 states and split control in seven states. And, although New York state counts among the states where Democrats control both chambers, the New York Senate is run by a coalition that consists of only a small number of Democrats who are allied with all of the Republicans. The chamber consists of 32 Democrats and 31 Republicans and is led by Republican John Flanagan, who serves as president pro tempore and majority leader.

Much of the GOP dominance can be attributed to a Republican tide that slowly moved in over the Southern states during the past 25 years. For decades, Democrats held overwhelming majorities in the South; some states had literally zero Republican legislators for years. By 2008, Republicans had gained 46 percent of all seats in Southern legislatures, and today they hold 63 percent of the seats. Republicans control both of the legislative chambers of every Southern state save one—the Kentucky House, where a six-seat advantage by the Democrats (53 Ds to 47 Rs) is certain to make it a battleground once again this year.

Familiar Battlegrounds

Because of large majority margins and redistricting, some states are beyond the reach of the minority party for a takeover in 2016. Still, many of the chambers on the 2016 battleground list, like the Kentucky House, continue to be competitive. The Republicans’ success in the past three legislative election cycles, however, requires them to play far more defense this year just to hold on to previous gains.

At least 18 legislative chambers—11 Senates and seven Houses—are definitely in play this November and can easily be identified as true battlegrounds.

On the Senate Side

• Five chambers could shift party control with just one seat change. The Senates and their current numbers are: Colorado 18 R–17 D, Iowa 26 D–24 R, Nevada 11 R–10 D, Washington 25 R–24 D and West Virginia 18 R–16 D. Only half the Senate seats are up this year in these states.
• In five other state Senates, GOP majorities are bigger but still vulnerable. Arizona 18 R–12 D, Maine 20 R–15 D, New Hampshire 14 R–10 D, New Mexico 24 D–18 R and Wisconsin 19 R–14 D. All Senate seats are up in Arizona, Maine, New Hampshire and New Mexico. In Wisconsin, each party has eight seats up this year. In Arizona, Republicans are trying to hold on to a three-seat lead while in New Mexico the Democrats are trying to do the same thing.
• As noted above, the unique situation in the New York Senate is worth watching.

On the House Side

• In three states, Democrats have slim leads to defend: Colorado 34 D–31 R, Kentucky 53 D–47 R and Washington 50 D–48 R.
• In another four House chambers, Republicans must defend against Democrats in states where polls show Hillary Clinton in the lead for the White House. Minnesota 73 R–61 D, Nevada 25 R–17 D, New Hampshire 239 R–160 D and New Mexico 37 R–33 D. The Minnesota and New Hampshire Houses have been the two most competitive chambers in the country over the past 10 years. They have both changed party control in four of the past five election cycles.

This year’s election may be a challenge for Republicans, as they seek to defend their control of a record-high number of state legislatures. That means 2016 is shaping up as an opportunity year for Democrats. With the unusual race for president at full steam and garnering the vast majority of voters’ attention, coattails will matter as is usually the case.

What is clear is that states are where the action will be after November, leading the way when it comes to tackling problems and innovating new policies.

For information about legislative races, contact Tim Storey or Daniel Diorio at 303-364-7700.

Daniel Diorio is a policy specialist covering elections for NCSL. 

Governor’s races add little excitement to the map

There are 12 gubernatorial races this year. Democrats are defending eight governorships to Republicans four. The Cook Political Report rates half of the races toss-ups—four in states currently held by Democrats and two held by Republicans.

There are safe seats for Democrats in Delaware, Oregon and Washington, and Montana is likely to stay in the D column with a well-liked incumbent in Governor Steve Bullock. New Hampshire is an open seat as Governor Maggie Hassan decided to run for the U.S. Senate, but with the Granite State’s hue going blue in presidential years, Democrats have a good chance of holding the state in a toss-up race. The only blips on the map for Democrats could be filling the seats of term-limited Governors Jay Nixon in Missouri and Earl Ray Tomblin in West Virginia.

On the Republican side, incumbent-Governor Gary Herbert should be safe in Utah and former Microsoft executive Doug Burgum should keep North Dakota in the R column. The same can’t be said for Governor Pat McCrory in North Carolina as he faces off against Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) in what should be a tight race. Indiana Governor Mike Pence is looking to become the next vice president, making the Hoosier State an open race.

The GOP does have a good pickup opportunity in West Virginia as the Mountain State has steadily changed to a Republican-leaning state in recent years. Believe it or not, Vermont could also be a pickup opportunity for Republicans. Well-liked Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott (R) is in the race to succeed his Democratic boss, retiring-Governor Pete Shumlin, but Vermont has been a reliably blue state.

For information about governor's, contact Daniel Diorio at 303-364-7700.

When adding in governors, Republicans have full control of 22 states (holding majorities in both chambers and the governorship), Democrats control eight, and both parties share control of 19 states. (Nebraska’s chamber is nonpartisan.)

See the state legislatures and governors maps for more information on how state government control could change this November.

For questions about state control, contact Daniel Diorio.

Wendy Underhill covers election administration, the initiative and referendum process and ballot measures for NCSL

Lawmakers may be watching ballot measures this year with an eye to whether these ideas could spread to their own state, either through a vote of the people or in the legislature. Voters in 35 states will decide 154 statewide ballot measures. This year’s total is in line with the totals from 2010, 2012 and 2014, but those numbers are down from the period, 1990-2008. The average for the decade, 2000-2009, is 206 during even-numbered years, with a high of 235 and a low of 173.

Seventy-three of this year’s ballot measures are initiatives—measures put on ballots by citizens gathering signatures. Twenty-four states provide citizens an avenue for getting their issues on the ballot. From 2000 through 2014, the number of citizen initiatives on November ballots in even years has varied between 35 and 79 with an average of 53. (For more on the procedural aspects of ballot measures, see NCSL’s Initiative and Referendum Overview.)

What is more surprising is that the number of initiatives is almost the same as the number of legislative referendums, 73 to 75. Legislative referendums are markedly lower than in most years.

Four popular referendums—when voters who are unhappy with a newly enacted law gather signatures to put the new law on the ballot so voters can choose to veto it—are on the ballots in three states. California has a popular referendum to repeal a 2014 statewide ban on plastic bags. South Dakota has two, one that would repeal a law that lowers the minimum wage for youth, and the other relating to petitions. Nebraskans will consider whether to repeal a law that eliminates the death penalty. 

Topics

This year’s statewide ballot measures offer a wide range of ideas, some new and some not-so-new. Marijuana, firearms, and various measures relating to elections are big, and nothing related to marriage or reproductive rights/abortion is on any statewide ballot in 2016.  Here is a short alphabetical summary.   Links take readers to NCSL's blog for more details.

Animal rights: expanding farm animal cage size (Massachusetts), prohibiting traps and snares on public lands (Montana)

Bonds: two measures change the process for using bonds (Arkansas and California), and almost a dozen others would pay for initiatives around education, transportation, science, human services and the environment (California, Maine, Montana, New Mexico and Rhode Island)

Cigarettes: tax increases (California, Colorado, Missouri, and North Dakota)

Campaign Finance: California, Missouri, South Dakota and Washington

Criminal justice: capital punishment (California, Nebraska, Oklahoma) New Mexico (bail) and crime victims’ rights (Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota)

Education: charter schools (Massachusetts), funding for high school dropout retention and college readiness (Oregon), state control of failing schools (Georgia) and education funding proposals (California, Maine, and Utah)

Elections: voter ID (Missouri), ranked-choice voting (Maine), nonpartisan elections (South Dakota), a redistricting commission (South Dakota) and campaign finance (California, Missouri, South Dakota, and Washington)

Energy: A carbon tax (Washington) and retail solar energy (Florida and Nevada)

Firearms: background checks for purchasing firearms (Maine and Nevada) or ammunition (California) and extreme risk protection orders (Washington)

Gambling: enable more casinos or slots parlors in more locations (Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island)

Health: require use of condoms in the adult film industry (California), drug pricing (California), single-payer health care (Colorado) and aid-in-dying (Colorado)

Right to hunt, fish, farm and ranch: protecting the right to hunt and fish (Indiana and Kansas) and the right to farm and ranch (Oklahoma)

Legislative changes: establishing an ethics commission (Rhode Island), impeachments (Alabama), creating a timeline for publishing bills before voting on it (California), legislative salaries (Minnesota), requiring residency in the district (North Dakota) and giving the legislature oversight of administrative rules (Idaho)

Marijuana legalization or expansion: recreational (Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada) and medical (Arkansas, Florida, Montana, North Dakota)

Minimum wage: increasing it (Arizona, Colorado, Maine and Washington) or decreasing it, for youth only (South Dakota)

Tax policy: increasing corporate or income taxes (California, Louisiana, Maine, and Oregon), increasing sales tax (Oklahoma), prohibiting an increase of the sales tax (Missouri), tax exemptions for special groups or cases (Florida, Louisiana, Nevada, Utah, and Virginia) and a carbon emissions tax (Washington)

Transportation: various approaches to securing funding and financing (Illinois, Louisiana, Maine, New Jersey)

For information about all of 2016’s statewide ballot measures, see NCSL’s database of ballot measures or contact Wendy Underhill at 303-364-7700.