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Election 2006--No Party for the GOP?Clinton's mid-term election was bad news for Democrats who lost 500 legislative seats. Some prognosticators think Republicans could suffer that fate this year. By Tim Storey
With fewer than 70 days to go before the 2006 elections, all signs point to major change possibly on a scale not seen since the last "tidal wave" election in 1994. Analysts then predicted that the Democratic base was too demoralized to get out the vote but that Republican voters were energized and eager to make the vote a referendum on Bill Clinton's first two years in office. The prognosticators were right; Democrats got walloped in legislative races, losing more than 500 seats in legislatures. Many political analysts think conditions in 2006 are similar to those in 1994 with Republicans poised to sit this one out and many voters likely to cast their vote based on their opinion of the George W. Bush administration and the direction the country is going. Early signs indicate that swing voters are agitated and could unleash their wrath on incumbents making this a volatile year of change. That news has GOP candidates nervous. "The situation for Republicans has for months looked more dire than it did for Democrats in 1994--the last landslide election," says Tom Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. But surprisingly, unlike 1994, the two parties are neck-and-neck as they head into the homestretch of the 2006 campaign. Democrats held nearly 60 percent of all state legislative seats in 1994, but emerged clinging only to a thin 52 percent majority. Washington political analyst Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report, agrees with Mann that this election is starting to look like 1994 and is sounding a warning for Republicans as they enter the post-Labor Day campaign season. "Based on national polling data like right direction/wrong track, Congress' job approval, the generic congressional ballot test and the president's job approval ratings, there is no doubt in my mind that there is a very significant tidal wave headed toward the Republican Party this November. It is a wave bigger than 1982 and potentially on par with 1974 and 1994." Republican strategists believe that they can counter the doomsayers by emphasizing core issues like smaller government and lower taxes. "Everybody will tell you that this is going to be a challenging year for Republicans," says Alex Johnson, executive director of the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC). And those early warning signs are lighting a fire under his candidates, he says. "Our committee has set records for fundraising this year. And if our guys work hard and knock on doors, we'll be fine." Johnson's counterpart at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), Michael Davies, is cautiously optimistic about Democratic prospects in the fall. "Our base is very energized, and our candidate filings are way up," he says. "We're definitely going to pick up seats, but will they be in the right places?" WHAT'S AT STAKE To say that the two parties are "even" in their control of state legislatures doesn't do justice to exactly how tight the margin is between Democrats and Republicans. It seems states are entrenched in a prolonged era of sharply divided control of legislatures and state government in general. Out of the total 7,382 legislative seats in the country, Democrats have a minute 21-seat advantage as of early July. In other words, they have a negligible, yet symbolic, lead that constitutes a tiny fraction of 1 percent. On the other hand, the GOP controls more legislatures outright and more chambers. The pre-election breakdown of state legislative control is 20 Republican, 19 Democrat and 10 split. (This total adds to only 49 states because Nebraska's senators run in nonpartisan elections for the unicameral Nebraska Legislature.) Control of legislative chambers is also essentially tied, with Republicans running the show in 49 and Democrats in 47. As is often the case these days, two legislative bodies are exactly tied--the Montana House and Iowa Senate. Some of the most exciting races this fall may be for seats in those tied chambers as the two parties seek to break the deadlock. STATES TO WATCH Since the 1930s, at least 12 legislative chambers, on average, have changed hands in every election cycle. In 2004, 13 chambers changed with Democrats doing surprisingly well, gaining seven chambers and earning ties in Montana and Iowa. Republicans seized four chambers and had big wins in national contests as well. So what are the states to watch in 2006? Lou Jacobson, deputy editor of the Washington newspaper Roll Call and contributor to the Rothenberg Political Report, says there are "10 vulnerable Democratic-held chambers compared to only eight vulnerable Republican-held chambers." He lists 11 chambers as "toss-ups": the Colorado House and Senate, Indiana House, Iowa House and Senate, Maine House and Senate, Minnesota House, Montana House, North Carolina House and the Oklahoma Senate. And despite the fact that more Democratic chambers are precarious, Jacobson adds, "Republicans acknowledge that President Bush's problems are being felt at the local level, and they know that if Democratic voters want to send a message this fall, state legislatures could be a key venue for that message." That analysis does not dampen the enthusiasm of RLCC's Johnson who has his eye on several key legislative opportunities. "I like our chances in the Oklahoma Senate," he says. Democrats hold only a two-seat advantage there and all seven of the Oklahoma Senators to term out this year are Democrats. Johnson also thinks Republicans might take control of both chambers in Colorado, Maine and Montana, and says the Alabama House could move closer to Republican control. "Our best chances are in Iowa where we could win both chambers," says DLCC Executive Director Davies. "We could win back the Indiana House, and the Minnesota House is a great opportunity for Democrats." Like Johnson, Davies also includes Colorado and Montana as key states to keep an eye on. THE MID-TERM TREND Are special elections the canary in the coal mine? Elections to fill vacancies in the past six months may hold a clue for what to expect this November. Between December 2005 and June 1, states held 42 special elections. In a remarkable 31 percent, the opposing party took control. Democrats took 11 previously held Republican seats--almost all in districts that George Bush carried in 2004. Republicans claimed two legislative special election wins in districts previously held by Democrats, although both were in districts that George Bush overwhelmingly carried in 2004. EARLY SURPRISES Indiana Senate President Pro Tem Bob Garton met the same fate to a Republican primary challenger in May. Garton had served in the Indiana Senate for 36 years and as its leader for 26, making him the second-longest serving leader in the country after Tennessee Senate leader John Wilder, who assumed his post in 1970. Many other stalwarts of legislative leadership will not be returning in January. The list includes Indiana Senate Majority Leader Joe Harrison, who was tied with Garton as the second-longest serving legislative leader in the country. Harrison, like many other legislative leaders, chose not to file for reelection. THE BIG ISSUES CNN political analyst Bill Schneider says the key issues are "Iraq, Iraq, Iraq and Iraq É and maybe some attention to immigration and gas prices. And none of that helps Republicans or George Bush." Schneider believes that there will be "sizable Democratic gains everywhere, including state legislatures." But he does caution that the election is two months away and global events, such as the fate of Osama bin Laden, could throw all predictions out the window. TURNOVER AND TERM LIMITS Early indications are that overall legislative turnover in this election could nudge upwards of the normal 20 percent. Half of the states with elections this year have already held primaries, and preelection turnover is ahead of the same point in 2004 by nearly 2 percent. Already 458 incumbent legislators are either retiring or have lost primary races compared to 406 in 2004 in the same states at this point in the election year. SETTING THE TABLE FOR REDISTRICTING "People in Washington have to realize that you must be building toward redistricting now," says DLCC's Davies. "You can't just 'add water' in the election right before line drawing and hope to have success." In one of its last decisions before departing for the term in June, the U.S. Supreme Court put its stamp of approval on the Republican-led, mid-decade redistricting of Texas congressional lines in 2003. That decision may become relevant in states that shift to one-party control this fall. Some could opt to reopen the congressional mapping process in hopes of improving the chance to gain seats in 2008. The Supreme Court's ruling means that federal law does not prohibit states from revisiting redistricting. And if party control in the U.S. House gets closer, as many predict it will, then mid-decade redistricting, `a la Texas, will certainly take place in a handful of states. CNN's Schneider has no doubt that intense pressure from Washington political leaders will be exerted on legislators to redraw lines "now that the Supreme Court has given a green light to mid-decade redistricting and if the U.S. House winds up divided by only a few seats." WHY LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS MATTER Furthermore, state legislators decide how to spend more than half a trillion dollars in public money each year. And to balance state budgets, as they are required to do (unlike their Washington, D.C., counterparts), legislators must make tough decisions about funding critical areas such as education, health care, roads and corrections. The party that prevails in legislative races this fall will dictate policy on what matters most to Americans. And as a bonus, that party will have the upper hand as we head into the next round of elections that will determine who controls 2010 congressional redistricting. They Won't Be Back
A recurring theme in state politics is that voters seem to favor divided state government. There is one party control in only 20 states. Republicans control both the legislature and governor in 12 states and Democrats in eight. Thirty-six states stage elections for governor this year so the status quo is likely to change. In at least nine states, there will be a new executive after November due to term limits or the current governor leaving. Eight of the nine open seats are GOP governors stepping down giving Democrats hope that this may be the year to catch up. Currently, the political breakdown of governors is 28 Republican and 22 Democrat. Many of the races could be competitive including what appear at this point to be "toss-ups" in Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Massachusetts and Michigan. Tim Storey is NCSL's elections expert. 
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