State Legislatures Magazine: September 2000

Editor's Note: This article appeared in the September 2000 issue of NCSL's magazine, State Legislatures. To order copies or to subscribe, contact the marketing department at (303) 364-7700.

Election 2000-the States Are Crucial

Enormous Consequences
Seismic Shift
Key States
Major Issues

Redistricting Predictions: 7 States Win; 8 Lose

Election 2000-the States Are Crucial

State legislative races might not get the attention they deserve this presidential election year, but for more than one reason, they are critical.

By Karen Hansen
The stakes are huge in November: some 6,000 state legislative seats up for election, control of the nation's state legislatures and with it, politics' high stakes prize-writing the legislative and congressional maps for the first decade in the new century.

2000 is the jackpot election: the presidency, the balance in both houses of Congress and redistricting in 2002. It's an election political pundits say we haven't seen the likes of since 1952, the last year all this plus the balance of the U.S. Supreme Court would be determined at the polls.

ENORMOUS CONSEQUENCS
This first election of the new decade has enormous consequences for the new century. Every important domestic policy innovation in the decade of the '90s has come from the states, and there is little indication that will change, particularly with the likelihood that Congress will find itself with even tighter partisan splits. The real action on welfare, health care reform, education and taxes is happening in Sacramento, Phoenix, Jefferson City, Lansing, Albany, Tallahassee and all the other state capitals-not in Washington, D.C. The element of redistricting-and its ultimate effect on the make-up of Congress-gives this election even greater importance. State legislatures, by rewriting the congressional maps in 2002, may determine which party controls Congress for the next 10 years.

"State legislatures are the arena for public policy in this country right now," says Kevin Mack, head of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. "You add that to redistricting, and it makes for a very interesting year. I don't think there's any question that whatever goes on in congressional elections this year, the numbers will be very close. So redistricting will make or break either party in terms of long-term control of the House of Representatives."

Right now, the public isn't particularly focused on the fall election. The economy is still sailing along at an amazing clip, there are no burning national concerns propelling people to the polls and summer has not turned up the heat, politically, that is. The two presumptive party candidates are on the stump, but they have yet to revive the extraordinary voter interest the primaries sparked up to Super Tuesday in early March when Senator John McCain's campaign stalled. But this doesn't mean people are turned off or apathetic. In fact, polls indicate that Americans are generally happy, they generally are satisfied with the way things are going, and they think the economy is terrific.

Nagging at the edges of this "feel good" mood, however, is what political analyst William Schneider calls a sense of "moral drift amidst prosperity."

"The country's doing well-peace, prosperity, low crime rate, a few specific problems, but nothing that's nearing the dimensions of a crisis. But there's some feeling that the country has lost direction," Schneider says. "I call it moral drift, and there's a slight edge for George W. Bush on that issue. If Americans are looking for any particular quality in this election, it's a straight talker, a straight shooter after Clinton. That's why McCain was such a resounding sensation. And after Clinton there's a kind of longing for someone who's not driven by politics. It gives a slight advantage to the Republicans, but not decisive."

Republicans have made decisive gains in the decade of the '90s, and their victories have brought state legislatures almost to party parity. Going into this election, Democrats control both houses in 19 legislatures; Republicans control 18; 12 are split; and the Nebraska Unicameral is nonpartisan. Democrats picked up seats in the 1998 off-year elections-stemming the historical tide that had the president's party losing, and losing big, in the midterm vote. People happy with their financial situation under President Clinton expressed that in a vote of confidence for Democrats across the country. They stalled the Republican march that had started with the 1994 elections. That year gave the GOP its biggest state legislative victories in 28 years. Republicans went into the election controlling just eight legislatures. When the votes were counted, they had taken control of 18.

SEISMIC SHIFT
"What happened was a seismic shift in American politics all the way down to the local level," says Schneider. "There was a huge Republican gain among voters who had been conservative for some time but who out of habit had continued to vote Democratic year after year after year. They were very angry at Clinton, and they voted Republican. Since times have been good ever since then, they've stayed with that vote.

"Generally speaking, the Republicans have kept much of their gains since 1994, which means they are very competitive in state legislatures around the country where they used not to be."

That competitiveness raises the stakes in this election. There are a number of states where a change of five seats or fewer in a chamber would change or split control of the legislature: the Pennsylvania House (101 D, 102 R); the Michigan House (52 D, 58 R); the Wisconsin Senate (17 D, 16 R); the Texas House (78 D, 72 R) and Senate (15 D, 16 R); the Indiana House (53 D, 47 R); the Oregon Senate (13 D, 17 R); the South Carolina House (59 D, 65 R) and Senate (24 D, 22 R); the Arizona Senate (14 D, 16 R); the Missouri House (84 D, 76 R, 1 I, 2 vacancies) and Senate (18 D, 16 R); the Washington House (tied 49 D, 49 R) and Senate (26 D, 23 R); the Kentucky Senate (18 D, 20 R); the Connecticut Senate (19 D, 17 R); the New Hampshire Senate (tied 12 D, 12 R); the Minnesota House (63 D, 70 R).

KEY STATES
The two parties are each expected to spend at least $2 million on state legislative races. They are focusing particularly on the pivotal states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Texas, Wisconsin and Illinois-the states that are gaining or losing congressional seats and whose majorities are particularly close.

"There are five or six big states that are really going to have a large impact on redistricting, and then there are six or eight smaller states that added together could have an impact," say Mack.

Tom Cole, chief of staff for the Republican National Committee, says, " This is very important to us. I mean, next to the presidential election, really, what happens in these redistricting contests is more important to us than any other set of elections in the country."

According to estimates by the political parties, a GOP victory in as few as 17 state legislative races in key chambers and two governorships could mean 20 more Republican seats in the U.S. House. The Democrats need to gain 35 key state legislative seats and one governorship to see a 20-seat gain in the U.S. House.

Pennsylvania, where Republicans control the House by just one seat, is expected to lose two of its 21 congressional seats. The state is a top target of both parties.

"Holding Pennsylvania is critical for us," says Cole. "Which congressmen are left standing when the game of musical chairs stops-that's very important."

Texas is expected to add two congressional districts, so Republicans are aiming to defend their one-seat lead in the Senate while Democrats are working to topple them and maintain their own slim majority in the House. Wisconsin stands to lose one district. The Democrats have a one-seat margin in the House, while Republicans control the Senate by an 11-seat margin. The Democrats would have to win six seats to take control.

Michigan is projected to hold on to its 16 congressional seats, which reverses the trend anticipated using the Census Bureau's 1996 population estimates. But for the first time in 20 years, the Republicans will be in control of the redistricting process, if they maintain their majority in the House. In the past, Michigan reapportionment plans have landed in the state Supreme Court. But now, the court also tilts Republican, with a five to two GOP majority.

"Redistricting raises the stakes for state legislative elections enormously just because Congress is so closely controlled and is likely to remain closely controlled for the foreseeable future," says Schneider. "Since House elections are going to be close and the majority is going to be narrow, my guess is we're going to be seeing single digit majorities conceivably going back and forth for at least a decade. Control of state legislatures-and therefore control of redistricting-is critical."

The 44 legislatures that have the authority to rewrite the congressional maps (commissions do the work in the other six states) will set to work early in 2001 after the Census Bureau releases its population numbers later this year. The impact will be felt after the 2002 elections. Six of the 44 states are expected to have only one seat in Congress, so those legislatures do not have to draw congressional lines.

"State legislatures are enormously important to the lives of people. They're especially important every 10 years because of the responsibility most of them have-not all-for redistricting and for the impact on Congress," says Alan Rosenthal of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University. "Forgetting this is a redistricting year, they have taken on more responsibility for more issues over the past 10 or 20 years. They always had a great connection with people's lives, now they have even more of a connection with people's lives."

This year, there are 5,910 seats out of 7,424 up for election in 44 states.

"I'd say we are in a period of competitive politics," says Rosenthal. "I'd say two-thirds of the 99 legislative chambers are competitive. Either party can win, and that's what's important in an election."

In the past three elections, the Midwest and the South have been the legislative battlegrounds. Republicans have made significant inroads in the South, taking control of the Florida House in 1996 for the first time since Reconstruction (they now control it 75-45) and increasing their hold on the Senate. The GOP also holds the majority in the Virginia House 52-47 and the Senate 21-18. They have made inroads in Georgia.

MAJOR ISSUES
And what about the issues? The number one issue in the country is a state issue: education. It's a concern, according to polls, that centers on two somewhat different things: that schools may not be teaching the values children need and that the new economy demands highly skilled and educated people.

"Even people in places like Silicon Valley are absolutely manic about the subject of education because they know how competitive the economy is, how difficult it is to keep up with rapid technological change," says Schneider. "They're terrified their children won't have the skills to compete.

"So education for most voters is really a new economy issue: Are our children learning what they need to know to compete in a transformed economy?"

Even though the federal government talks about it, education is the purview of states and localities. They are the ones financing it, setting the standards, requiring the testing.

The federal government may be stalled on such issues as prescription drug costs and regulating HMOs, but a number of states have already enacted patient bill of rights laws, and those that haven't are debating it. States have experimented with health care innovations that inform the federal debate, expanding coverage to the working poor and devising new ways to deliver health care, and have sought federal waivers to accomplish their ideas.

Welfare reform found its roots in the states long before the federal government took its lead from Wisconsin and Michigan and rewrote the nation's welfare laws.

"Taxes, highways, welfare, health, education-these are the areas that certainly touch peoples' lives," says Rosenthal.

And that is one more reason legislative elections are so crucial.

Karen Hansen is editor of State Legislatures.

Redistricting Predictions: 7 States Win; 8 Lose

As the last election of the 1990s approaches, members of the U.S. House of Representatives rediscover their state legislators. Those federal lawmakers start lobbying their state counterparts to make sure they are not doomed to political oblivion by redistricting.

Members of Congress are keenly aware that legislators will be redrawing congressional district lines following the tabulation of 2000 census data at the end of the year.

Only seven members are truly safe from any tinkering, and those are the representatives from the states where the population is not large enough to warrant more than just one seat in the U. S. House-Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. Montana has a slim chance to pick up a second seat, but population projections do not give it much cause for optimism.

Since 1930, the number of seats in the U. S. House has been frozen at 435, meaning that reapportionment is a zero sum gain exercise-some states win; some states lose. Demographers from two separate firms, Polidata and Election Data Services, have projected population growth through 2002 and arrived at the same conclusion-eight states will be losing seats in Congress, and seven will reap the rewards.

Using U.S. Census Bureau population estimates for 1999, the firms project that Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Texas will see increases in their congressional delegations. Arizona, Georgia and Texas should actually gain two seats each. Surrendering the prized seats will be Connecticut, Illinois, Mississippi, New York (losing two seats), Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania (losing two seats) and Wisconsin.

The good news for the states projected to lose is that these are just predictions. The real truth arrives gift wrapped between Christmas and New Year's Day when the Census Bureau reports the actual numbers to the president. So stay tuned.

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