State Legislatures Magazine: December 2002

Editor's Note: This article appeared in the December 2002 issue of NCSL's magazine, State Legislatures. To order copies or to subscribe, contact the marketing department at (303) 364-7700.

GOP #!: First Time in 50 Years

Absolute Parity
The Big Picture
Southern Trend Continues
Redistricting
Governor Races
Leaders
Tough Times Ahead

GOP #1: First Time in 50 Years

Republicans made historic gains in this mid-term election. The parties are now just about
dead-even in the number of legislative seats they hold, but Republicans control more legislatures.

By Tim Storey and Gene Rose
The two lines had been tracking symmetrically on the chart for five decades-but never meeting. For 50 years, there have been more Democratic legislators than Republican. Democrats outnumbered Republicans two-to-one in the mid 1970s, making political parity seem like an impossible dream for the GOP. The lines, however, finally met this November. There are now ever-so-slightly more legislative seats held by Republicans for the first time since 1952.

History said the party of the president could not gain state legislative seats in a mid-term election. Since 1938-and possibly before, since records are not available-the president's party has lost an average of more than 350 seats in every mid-term election cycle. That trend started to wane in 1998, when, during Bill Clinton's second mid-term election, the Dems lost only one seat. Tucked comfortably into the wake of President George W. Bush's 65 percent popularity, Republicans netted more than 175 seats in this election cycle that includes 2001 off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia.

Rhodes Cook, editor of a Washington-based nonpartisan elections newsletter, attributes some of the GOP success to their get-out-the-vote effort in key states. "Once these people were at the polls, many of them probably voted Republican straight down the ticket. I would think Bush's popularity was an asset for the GOP, even in legislative races."

Floyd Ciruli, head of the polling and research firm Ciruli Associates based in Denver, also credits Bush for national and state GOP gains.

"I think the president nationalized this election," he says. "Undecided voters went Republican in the end."

ABSOLUTE PARITY
When it comes to legislative seats, 2002 will go down in history as the year that the two major parties wound up dead even. Once Nebraska's 49 nonpartisan senators and the 21 seats held by third parties are factored into the equation, neither major political party controls more than 50 percent of the nation's legislative seats. Republicans hold 49.6 percent, and Democrats have 49.4 percent, leaving exactly 1 percent in the "other" column. It simply doesn't get any closer.

"It's a parity nation-everything is 50-50," says Larry Sabato, political scientist at the University of Virginia. "You add it all together, and we are in an era when neither party has a huge edge. Republicans knew they were up against history, so they put substantial money into winning legislative seats."

The margin of control also is extremely close in many chambers, making for tenuous majorities. In 22 of the nation's legislative chambers, the majority party holds less than 55 percent of the seats. And unless recounts or party switches change the preliminary, unofficial results, there will be at least two tied chambers when sessions convene. The New Jersey Senate and Oregon Senate have the exact same number of Democrats and Republicans. A switch of merely one seat due to a vacancy would change party control in the Colorado Senate, Georgia Senate, Indiana House, Maine Senate, North Carolina House and the Washington Senate.

THE BIG PICTURE
Voters this year chose winners for more than 85 percent of the nation's 7,382 state legislative seats. On paper, it looked like a promising year for Democrats. Pundits, political party spokesmen, a flagging economy and history all said that Republicans would do well to hold their own in the 2002 general elections. But like the sportscasters say after a big upset, "That's why they play the game."

The GOP can now boast of controlling more states than Democrats. Republicans hold both the House and Senate in 21 states, up from 17 before the election. That's the most states the GOP has held since the party claimed 26 legislatures in 1952.

Democrats went from controlling 18 to 16 legislatures. Partisan control is divided in 11 states, with neither party having a majority in both legislative chambers. The winner in Washington remains undecided at press time because both the House and Senate have many very close races hinging on the outcome of more than 450,000 yet-to-be counted absentee ballots.

Republicans now control 52 chambers, Democrats 43, two are tied and the Washington Senate is undecided.

On average, 12 chambers switch hands in every election cycle, and the 2002 cycle is right on the average. Twelve chambers shifted from one column to the other. Republicans picked up the Texas House under a new redistricting plan that all observers agreed tilted heavily in their favor. The GOP now controls all of Texas government for the first time since 1870.

Three days after the election, Texas House members tapped Midland Republican Tom Craddick to replace Democrat Pete Laney, who has held the speaker's gavel since 1993.

Missouri, a perennial bellwether state, followed the national Republican trend. Taking advantage of redistricting and opportunities provided by term limits, Republicans pulled in a remarkable 13 seats to gain control of the Missouri House for the first time since 1954. This follows Republican victories that gave the party control of the state Senate in 2001. Democrats still hold the governorship.

Current Missouri Minority Leader Catherine Hanaway was chosen by her caucus to be the state's first female House speaker when the legislature convenes in January.

The Colorado Senate switched back to Republicans after two years with Democrats at the helm, giving the GOP total control of the legislature and governorship. Senate Minority Leader John Andrews was chosen by his party to become the new Senate president.

Denver pollster Ciruli notes that at least one and possibly more state Senate races in Colorado reached the $1 million mark. "We had the most aggressive races we've seen here," he says. "Democrats had broken 40 years of Republican rule, and the Republicans were anxious to get it back."

The Wisconsin Senate went to the Republicans-the chamber has switched hands six times in the last 10 years. At the same time, Democrats took hold of the governor's office for the first time in nearly 16 years. Despite a cloud of scandal that involved both Democrats and Republicans, voters returned two of the indicted incumbents to office. Former Speaker Scott Jensen, who stepped down from his leadership role in October because of three felony counts of misconduct in public office, was re-elected in his district by 82 percent. Assembly Majority Leader Steven Foti, indicted on a similar felony count, was also re-elected by a wide margin.

The Arizona Senate deadlock was broken as the chamber went from being tied 15-15 to 17-13 for the Republicans. Tarheel voters delivered the North Carolina House to the GOP 61-59 following four years of Democratic majorities. At least three recounts were pending in very tight North Carolina House races, so the outcome could change.

Republicans wrested away the Georgia Senate when three Democratic senators switched to the Republican Party on the Friday after the election. This is the first time since Reconstruction that Republicans control the Georgia Senate.

But there was at least some good news for Democrats in this election. By winning the Illinois Senate and governorship, Democrats celebrated taking control of that state for the first time in a quarter century. The stage was set for a Democratic takeover when a coin flip gave the party control of a commission responsible for redrawing new district lines using the 2000 census numbers.

Pending recounts, the Oregon Senate switched for only the third time in 64 years, winding up in a 15-15 tie after eight years in the GOP column. Other bright spots for the Democrats were holding the Oklahoma Legislature, the North Carolina Senate, the Maine Senate, the Vermont Senate, and both the Tennessee House and Senate. They were all chambers targeted by the Republicans, according to Rob Engel, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. "And it was done in the midst of George Bush's strong coattails," he says. Engel notes that "the ultimate outcome of the election was similar to 2000 and 2001. The legislative level of government is dead-even between the two parties."

SOUTHERN TREND CONTINUES
The GOP continued to chip away at Democrats' power base in the South. Democrats have lost seats in every legislative election cycle since 1982. That year they held 83 percent of seats in the region. Although it is still the strongest region for the Democrats, only 56 percent of Southern legislative seats now belong to them.

Pending recounts in at least three North Carolina House races, Democrats appeared to lose control of the state House when Majority Leader Phil Baddour lost his bid for re-election to Republican Louis Tate after a second tally of ballots reversed the initial result showing the House as tied.

With the North Carolina House and Georgia Senate switching to the GOP, Democrats now control less than half of the South's 16 state legislatures. Following the last post-redistricting election in 1992, Democrats held every legislative chamber in the South except for the Florida Senate, which was tied. For over 100 years, the party dominated every legislative chamber in the South, but since 1992, Republicans have picked up 13.

"There has been tremendous growth throughout the southern region in Republican strength," says Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, "with Republican appeal strongest among white voters. Democrats in the South cannot count on white voters to pull them through anymore."

Republicans are strongest in the Midwest with 58 percent of all seats. Democrats find themselves at their lowest point in the Midwest since 1962. Democrats gained a net of five seats in the West where the party continues to creep upwards.

REDISTRICTING
One of the most important influences on the 2002 elections was redistricting. It had more to do with the outcome than any traditional issue-more than education, roads or health care.

"Redistricting was one of the primary factors for the GOP success in this election and will help us for the next five elections," says Tom Hofeller, redistricting director for the Republican National Committee.

"Redistricting is only the foundation. The president created a positive climate and energized the troops and that paid off up and down the ticket, including the key legislative races," he adds.

In 11 of the 12 legislative chambers where party control switched in this first post-redistricting election cycle, either a commission or a court drew the new lines. Redistricting plans drawn outside the legislature leave the majority party in a more vulnerable position than if the legislature draws its own lines. In the 25 states where the legislature adopted its own redistricting plan, there were no party control changes. The only exception was the Georgia Senate, where a Democratic plan helped elect three Democrats who wound up switching to the GOP, thus changing control of the chamber.

The spike in legislative turnover can be attributed to redistricting, as many legislators chose to retire rather than run again in a district comprised of new territory. Pre-election turnover stood at 21 percent before adding incumbents who lost their elections on Nov. 5. Total turnover will top 25 percent, up sharply from 17 percent in 2000.

GOVERNOR RACES
Change in governorships actually topped turnover in legislatures. There will be 23 new state executives (46 percent). The Alabama governor's race is undecided. This is the largest number of new governors since at least 1960. Before Nov. 5, party control stood at 27 Republican, 21 Democratic and two independent. Now, it's 25 Republican and 24 Democratic governors, with one undecided. Democrats picked up key posts in Michigan, Illinois and Pennsylvania and won surprise victories in Wyoming and Kansas. But Republicans won in the traditionally Democratic strongholds of Hawaii, Maryland and Georgia. Overall, the governor's office switched hands in 20 states. And another record: There are more women governors than ever before--six.

LEADERS
About a third of legislative leaders will not be serving in those roles next year. Some 120 leadership changes are expected when lawmakers convene in January, including some 46 Senate presidents, Senate presidents pro tem and House speakers. This comes close to the sweeping changes in 1994 when 138 leadership posts changed.

Speaker Thomas Murphy, who was the country's longest serving House speaker, lost his re-election bid in Georgia. Murphy had pounded the gavel longer than any Georgia speaker in history. He was first elected to the Georgia General Assembly in 1961 and chosen speaker in 1974.

Other upsets include Maryland's Speaker Casper Taylor, who lost his bid for re-election, and Speaker Pete Laney in Texas who lost his 10-year hold on the speakership when Republicans gained an impressive 16 seats. Rhode Island Speaker John Harwood resigned his post following the election.

Women, who make up more than 22 percent of all state legislators, are moving into some top leadership positions. In addition to Missouri's Hanaway, four female legislators in Colorado are making history. Elected to top leadership positions are Senate Majority Leader Norma Anderson, House Speaker Lola Spradley, Senate Minority Leader Joan Fitz-Gerald and House Minority Leader Jennifer Veiga.

Wisconsin also elected its first female Senate majority leader, Senator Mary Panzer. Oregon elected Representative Karen Minnis as speaker of the House. New Mexico re-elected House Majority Leader Danice Picraux.

TOUGH TIMES AHEAD
Once they get sworn in, roll up their sleeves and start looking at the full plate of difficult issues staring them in the face, many newly elected legislators may wonder what they got into. As state lawmakers, they will tackle the issues that matter most to Americans.

"These new legislators face some very difficult decisions. States will be struggling with the toughest economic outlook in a decade," says William T. Pound, executive director of NCSL. "The new legislators could provide an opportunity for innovation and allow states to re-examine existing programs."

For the parties, it's already time to look at the 2004 elections. America is "still fundamentally divided on some cultural and economic issues," Ciruli says. "The Democrats will go into a period of re-evaluation, finding the direction and messages they need. Republicans must be cautious. Given how close the country still is divided, they need to take action in a way that is prudent and careful."

And for most state lawmakers, it's never too early to start thinking about re-election-the next one is less than 700 days away.

Tim Storey is NCSL's elections and redistricting expert. Gene Rose directs the Public Affairs department. Karl Kurtz and Brenda Erickson also contributed to this article.

©2002, National Conference of State Legislatures. All rights reserved.

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