January 4, 2007
NCSL's Top 10 Policy Issue Forecast: Heat is on State Legislatures
‘Iron Chefs’ of Public Policy face financial, Congressional and public pressures
DENVER - The heat is on in the public policy kitchen as the National Conference of State Legislatures today released its predictions on the key issues for 2007.
NCSL’s annual top 10 forecast takes a look at the hot political menu. For 2007, we expect a mix of issues including immigration, state-issued identification cards, state revenues, health insurance, privacy, energy sources and their effect on the environment, minimum wage, higher education, sexual offenders and obesity. Many of these issues are likely to reach the boiling point this year. The list also includes some simmering side dishes. All 50 states hold regular legislative sessions this year, and most of them begin this month.
“Growing demands on state legislatures from the public and federal government will generate tremendous pressures on state lawmakers in 2007,” said NCSL Executive Director William Pound. “As always, we expect state legislatures to take the heat and develop innovative solutions for pressing policy issues.”
Here’s what NCSL expects state legislators, the “iron chefs” of public policy, to be working on this year. To show how hot we expect each issue to be, we measured them against water’s boiling point – 212 degrees.
Issue #1: Immigration |
Heat factor: 300 degrees |
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Thirty-two states approved 84 new laws on immigration in 2006, from a record 570 introduced. Many were enforcement-related, focusing on the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the country, while at least nine states addressed human trafficking. Georgia’s omnibus bill generated the most headlines for its tightening of public benefits and requiring the private sector to use a federal work authorization system to verify that employees are eligible to work. If the federal government continues to be deadlocked, expect continued innovation in the states as they weigh the social and economic implications of immigration policy. |
Issue #2: Homeland security and
standardized ID cards |
Heat factor: 280 degrees
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States will have to spend at least $11 billion over the next five years to comply with the federal Real ID Act, which created national standards for issuing state driver’s licenses and identification cards. We say "at least" because, to date, the federal government has not issued regulations and has appropriated only $40 million for state implementation, despite giving states a May 11, 2008 deadline to meet the non-existent standards. Faced with no regulations and very little federal funds, state legislatures will need to decide what steps to take this session to comply or not comply with Real ID. |
Issue #3: Budget pressures |
Heat factor: 275 degrees |
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States report stable revenues for now, but the latest NCSL State Budget Update shows concerns about sales tax collections and a few states are forecasting revenue shortfalls. This, combined with Congress shifting more than $75 billion in costs for programs like No Child Left Behind and the Real ID Act, has placed additional stress on state budgets. Most states expect increasing pressure to address burning education issues such as funding formulas, equity and adequacy, teacher salaries and facilities, as well as other priority issues including health costs, Medicaid, pension obligations and infrastructure concerns. Property tax relief and tax reform initiatives are expected in about a third of the states. |
Issue #4: Health insurance |
Heat factor: 250 degrees |
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Even though healthcare costs continue to strain state budgets, state legislatures may be focusing their attention on expanding coverage to the 46.6 million Americans the U.S. Census Bureau says were without health insurance in 2005, about one out of every six Americans. States may be looking at the plans Massachusetts and Vermont approved last year to ensure all state residents have health insurance. The Massachusetts plan prompted Republican Gov. Mitt Romney to quip it should help global warming because “hell has frozen over” since he and Democrat Sen. Ted Kennedy both supported the new law. Look for states to continue looking at ways to reduce costs, such as seeking lower prices for medicine and health care procedures. |
Issue #5: Sexual offenders and predators |
Heat factor: 230 degrees |
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Congressional approval of the Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act of 2006 calls on states to meet requirements on how information about sex offenders is collected and shared with other states, as well as strengthening penalties for failure to register as a sex offender. As new regulations and directives are announced by the U.S. Attorney General, states will have to react to make sure their laws comply or risk reduction in federal funding of related programs. Also, state legislators continue to look at ways to protect minors from online predators. |
Issue #6: Energy and environment |
Heat factor: 220 degrees |
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California’s sweeping 2006 greenhouse gas legislation pushed by Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez requires industries by the year 2020 to reduce carbon dioxide and other emissions to 1990 levels. Other movements are afoot in states to address global warming issues, including reducing power plant and automobile emissions, as there is growing acceptance that the earth’s rising temperatures may have negative effects on the economy and the environment. Watch for states to show more interest this year in alternative energy sources and incentives for consumers to adopt them to combat climate change, cut air pollution and diminish dependence on foreign oil. |
Issue #7: Minimum wage |
Heat factor: 215 degrees |
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Twenty-nine states and Washington, D.C. now have a minimum wage above the federal requirement of $5.15 per hour. Voters in six states approved hikes in November after another 11 legislatures approved raises in 2006. With Democrats, who have pledged to make this an issue, now controlling Congress and more state legislatures, expect to see movement, including efforts to raise the wage and tie future increases to inflation. |
Issue #8: Higher education reform |
Heat factor: 211 degrees |
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Expectations for state legislatures to reform post-secondary education in America were raised when NCSL’s Blue Ribbon Commission on Higher Education released its report: “Transforming Higher Education: National Imperative—State Responsibility.” The report says that while tuition and fees are higher, student access, affordability and the quality of education is suffering. The risk of not taking action, it says, is a loss of the nation's economic strength and competitiveness. Task force members were alarmed at projections that only three out of every 10 eighth grade students will earn a college degree. Legislators must demand productivity and efficiency of resources, the task force members agreed, and take strong action to restore America's reputation for higher education excellence. The report also says states must be more strategic in funding, and view higher education as an investment. |
Issue #9: Privacy |
Heat factor: 205 degrees |
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Numerous media reports in 2006 focused on the loss or theft of private or government computers that held sensitive personal information on customers, employees and other individuals. The Identity Theft Resource Center estimates there were 192 security breaches just through October, after recording 158 breaches affecting nearly 65 million people in 2005. At least 34 states have enacted legislation requiring disclosure when records are compromised. Expect more attention on this issue, as well as other privacy concerns such as identity theft, Internet and email scams and credit card and social security number protection. |
Issue #10: Obesity |
Heat factor: 200 degrees |
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Trans fat, which the U.S. Food and Drug Administration says can raise levels of "bad cholesterol" in our bodies and increase the risk for heart attack and stroke, has been called “the new tobacco.” The implication is that advocates will aggressively try to exert legal and legislative pressure to eliminate trans fat in prepared foods. Starting in March, New York City begins a process that eventually will require all restaurants to ban the use of trans fat. A ban is also proposed in Chicago, and Boston has implemented a voluntary program. Since 2003, at least 16 states have considered requiring restaurants to provide nutrition information for standard menu items, including trans fat. The FDA has required trans fat content on nutrition labels since January 2006. Expect several more states to debate trans fat legislation this year, as well as consider other nutrition and physical activity issues to address obesity concerns, particularly for younger Americans. |
Simmering and emerging issues
State legislatures will see several issues still leftover on their policy hot plates from previous sessions and a few new issues that are starting to demand a little more room in the public policy kitchen.
Simmering issues include genetics-related policy, same sex-marriage and school safety. Genetics policy, including stem-cell research, continues to be a challenge for lawmakers as new discoveries and new technologies bring new policy implications. The tension between groups that support and oppose same-sex marriage continues to be high and both sides are looking to legislatures and the courts for legal standing. Two high-profile school shootings in rural Colorado and a Pennsylvania Amish community this fall will still be on the minds of lawmakers as many return for their first sessions since these incidents.
Emerging issues include more attention to pre-kindergarten programs, math and science in schools, and transportation. At least 40 states enacted substantive child care and early education legislation in 2006. Some states may be looking at an Illinois program that provides voluntary preschool for all children between the ages of three and five. Providing students with more science, technology, engineering and math education opportunities when they get older is gaining steam among policymakers. And state lawmakers are expected to take a strong look at traffic congestion this year, including intelligent transportation systems, toll roads and other safety issues, including solutions to distracted driving.
NCSL is the bipartisan organization that serves the legislators and staff of the states, commonwealths and territories. It provides research, technical assistance and opportunities for policymakers to exchange ideas on the most pressing state issues and is an effective and respected advocate for the interests of the states in the American federal system.
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