September 12, 2008
Hidden Elections...The Top 10 State Battlegrounds Are Heating Up
More than 10 states are on the verge of switching parties come the November election.
DENVER - With the overwhelming attention focused on the race for the White House this fall, most voters might not know that a dramatic political battle is being waged over control of state governments, where policymakers make decisions on health care, education and transportation issues that affect the daily lives of Americans. Voters will decide 80 percent of the 7,382 total state legislative seats in the United States on November 4th as well as 11 state governors.
"Because there are only a small number of governor races in 2008, legislatures are the main battlefield for control of the states," said Tim Storey, an elections expert with the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Party control of states is sharply divided. Democrats control 14 state governments, and Republicans have 10 states. In 25 states, the power is divided between the two major parties. (The Nebraska Legislature is both nonpartisan and unicameral.) Democrats hold just under 55 percent of all seats. It is the high mark for Democrats since Republicans crushed them in 1994 and brought partisan parity to legislatures for the past 14 years.
At least 28 of the 84 legislative chambers with elections this year can be called battlegrounds with either party having a chance to emerge with a majority. The National Conference of State Legislatures has listed the top 10 battleground states in alphabetical order:
Delaware - A switch of just two seats in the House would give Democrats the majority, and they hope having Delaware Senator Joe Biden running for vice president will lead to unprecedented enthusiasm among First State Democrats.
Indiana - Democrats have a two-seat advantage over the Republicans in the House. The chamber has switched party control 15 times in the past 80 years.
Montana - The most competitive legislature in the country. Republicans currently control the House by just one seat. In the Senate, Democrats hold a two-seat advantage.
New York - The New York Senate is up for grabs. Republicans have a one-seat advantage, but Democrats can seize the majority for the first time since 1966 by picking up two Senate seats.
Nevada - Republicans enter the election with a razor thin 11-10 edge in the Senate.
Ohio - Term limits hit Republicans disproportionately hard in the Ohio House offering Democrats their best shot at winning back control since they lost it in 1994.
Oklahoma - The Oklahoma Senate is tied, with an equal number of Republicans and Democrats.
Pennsylvania - On paper, Democrats have a one-seat lead over the Republicans in the House, although the speaker is from the GOP. Republicans would like to gain back the majority after losing it in 2006.
Tennessee - The Senate has equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats, but Republicans control the body through a coalition majority and would like to take outright control by picking up a seat or two.
Wisconsin - Democrats need to win back just three seats to get control of the Assembly for the first time since 1994. Republicans need only two Senate pick-ups to win back control.
"Other states to watch are Arizona, Maine, Michigan, North Dakota, Oregon and South Dakota," said Storey.
There are no legislative elections this year in Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia. In Michigan and Minnesota, there are no senate elections, but all house seats are up. Governor races will be held in Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Utah, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia.
"History suggests that success for either Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama will produce a coattail effect," said Storey, "and is especially true in presidential battleground states like Ohio and Pennsylvania."
Since the 1940 election of Franklin Roosevelt, the party winning the presidency has gained legislative seats in 11 of 17 elections. That trend, however, did not hold in 2004 when Republicans suffered a net loss of 25 seats despite George Bush's reelection. On average, the party that wins the White House adds more than 125 legislative seats to its column.
NCSL is the bipartisan organization that serves the legislators and staff of the states, commonwealths and territories. It provides research, technical assistance and opportunities for policymakers to exchange ideas on the most pressing state issues and is an effective and respected advocate for the interests of the states in the American federal system.
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