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The results of Hart's "Mood of America" survey suggest that incumbents–Democrats and Republicans alike–have much to fear on election day. He said 60 percent of respondents believe the nation is on the wrong track. Only 27 percent say the nation is on the right track. And he said this is the first time ever that more people disapprove of both the Republican and Democratic parties. In previous polls, he said, people approved of at least one party.
Hart, the Democrat, detects a “throw-the-bums-out” attitude among the American people. Just 38 percent of respondents said their representative should be re-elected. Forty-eight percent want a change. He said the mood among the electorate is similar to that of 1966, 1978, and 1994. In 1994, state legislatures experienced major turnover. That year, when American's disapproved of President Clinton's attempt at health care reform and Newt Gingrich presented his Contract with America, more than 500 state legislative seats switched from Democrat to Republican.
This year, 48 percent of voters are saying that Iraq is the most important issue facing the nation. The war is followed by terrorism (29 percent), energy prices (27 percent), and the economy (25 percent).
Hart said immigration is becoming the hot-button issue of 2006, but candidates might not want to make it a focal point because the public is split on the issue. According to his research, 45 percent of the public thinks immigration helps the country, while 42 percent feel it hurts the country. Americans are almost evenly divided on whether building a wall along the U.S./Mexico border is a good idea: 47 percent support it while 48 percent oppose it.
The message Hart gets from poll answers is that Americans are anxious and uncertain.
Republican Luntz presented the results of his own poll--"Understanding America," which found that people want government to help them lead hassle-free lives, to give them peace of mind, to create policies that protect their privacy, and to be composed of people who are straight-forward and deliver results.
Luntz said people are also looking for more choices, more money, and more time. More money is the top priority for men, Luntz said, while women wish for more time. It is these things, rather than education, prescription drugs, and immigration, that are on the top of most people’s minds.
When it comes to characteristics Americans are looking for in their elected officials, 31 percent chose “a can-do spirit,” followed by the 22 percent who picked “strong and tough.”
When asked what turns people off about politics, 53 percent said politicians are out of touch, 43 percent chose lobbyists, and 27 percent cited negative ads.
Both pollsters offered advice for candidates.
Luntz said candidates should present themselves as people of action who get things done. They should emphasize two goals for the future. Any more messages will bog voters down.
Candidates should also pay attention to their words and chose voter-centered language. He called upon those running for office to acknowledge voters' frustrations and reassure them. Candidates should stress that they will be accountable and help solve problems.
Both men said it takes a problem-solver to win an election.
Luntz said candidates must clearly articulate problems so people know they understand them. Candidates should talk about what they want to do about the problem, and present a vision of dealing with the repercussions after the problem is solved.
Hart said campaigners should let people know that they are straight-shooters who are willing to level with the electorate. Candidates should explain what they want to do about a problem while saving a little bit for tomorrow.
Luntz also offered a bit of photography advice: “No pictures of yourself in a suit in front of a flag.” People don’t go to work in a suit carrying a flag, he explained, so voters see those poses "as crap."
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