Could 2006 elections be a reversal of the 1994 mid-term elections?

NASHVILLE – Of the nation’s 7,382 state legislative seats, 83 percent are up for grabs this year.  And, experts say, there could be big changes on the horizon.

“The changes that come from the 2006 state legislative elections could rival those of the historic 1994 elections when the GOP picked up more than 500 seats,” said Tim Storey, an elections expert with the National Conference of State Legislatures.  “But conventional wisdom suggests that at the end of the day it will be the Democrats that have the most to gain.”

Currently, state legislative chambers are controlled almost evenly between the two political parties.  Twenty legislatures are controlled by Republicans, 19 by Democrats and 10 legislatures are split (for those who are counting, Nebraska is a nonpartisan legislature).  In terms of individual legislators, Democrats maintain the slightest 21-seat majority over Republicans.

With so much at stake, the 2006 state legislative elections will be hotly contested around the country.  However, some states will be feeling the heat a little more than others.  Below are the nation’s top 10 state legislative election battlegrounds (in alphabetical order).

• Colorado House and Senate.  Colorado has emerged as a swing state and narrow Democratic majorities in both houses will be challenged.  In the House, Democrats have a five-seat majority and in the Senate, they lead by one seat.

• Indiana House.  Control of the Indiana House has switched six of the past nine elections and will again be up for grabs this year.  Today, Republicans have a four-seat majority.

• Iowa House and Senate.  The Iowa Senate is tied and Republicans have only a two-seat advantage in the House.

• Maine House and Senate.   Democrats control both chambers by only a handful of seats and independent Maine voters are renowned for ticket splitting.  In the House, Democrats own a three-seat majority while they control the Senate by only one.

• Minnesota House.  Democrats made huge gains in here in 2004 and could keep that momentum going to take control.  They only need to switch two seats.

• Montana House.  It's a classic toss-up.  The House is tied heading into the election and both parties are fielding candidates in 82 of the 100 House races.  

• North Carolina House.  Republicans need only four switches to regain control of a chamber where ethics controversies have dominated headlines. 

• Oklahoma Senate.  All seven of the incumbent Senators termed out this year are Democrats giving the GOP hope that picking up three seats for control is within reach. 

• Oregon House.  Democrats may have their best chance in over 15 years to take over needing only three seats to achieve a tie and four to seize control. 

• Tennessee Senate.  Republicans won control of the Senate in 2004 for the first time in over 100 years and must now defend the narrow three seat majority.

Of the top 10 battlegrounds, Colorado, Indiana, Maine and Montana appeared on the 2004 list.

Leaders in both the Republican and Democratic parties are plotting their strategies to swing these contentious races their way.

“After defying a tough national trend and picking up chambers in 2004, the current pro-Democratic national environment gives us the opportunity to defend our 2004 gains and to add further victories,” said Michael Davies, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

Early polls show suggest that swing voters are agitated and could unleash their wrath on incumbents making this a volatile year of change.  But Republican State Leadership Committee spokesman Alex Johnson says it is a bit premature to count Republicans out yet.

“Despite a national mood that is working against Republicans, we are excited to have so many Democratic legislatures 'in play' for a Republican takeover,” Johnson said.

NCSL is the bipartisan organization that serves the legislators and staff of the states, commonwealths and territories. It provides research, technical assistance and opportunities for policymakers to exchange ideas on the most pressing state issues and is an effective and respected advocate for the interests of the states in the American federal system.

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