April 12, 2006
A Flu Pandemic Could Cripple the Nation
Public health experts urge states and communities to prepare
WASHINGTON, D.C. - Empty grocery shelves. Rolling brownouts. Closed schools. Pandemic flu could give rise to these marks of natural disaster on a worldwide scale, public health experts said Saturday at the National Conference of State Legislatures' Spring Forum.
"What would hospitals do without electricity? They wouldn't want to operate on generators for long periods of time. How would we get food to the supermarkets? These may sound like simplistic questions, but in a pandemic situation, expect that 30 to 50 percent of workers wouldn't show up. They'd be sick, or taking care of the sick, or home with kids because school's closed," said Alfonso Martinez-Fonts, assistant secretary for the private sector office at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
States, localities, businesses and families must take steps to prepare for the next flu pandemic, the health experts said. Admiral John O. Agwunobi, assistant secretary for health at the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services said it's only a matter of time before a new strain of flu turns rampant.
"Pandemics are a natural thing," Agwunobi said. "They don't visit us from outer space. If I were to ask you, "Would there ever be another earthquake in California?" you would say, "Yes." That same question applies to pandemics. … They are a natural part of living on earth."
Three flu pandemics have occurred in recent history--in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The worst of these was the Spanish Flu of 1918, and Agwunobi said the H5N1 avian flu strain that's been floating around Asia is eerily similar to that virus. H5N1 has shown that it can infect people, but so far it hasn't spread in quick succession from human to human to human. The admiral compared the flu happenings in Asia to a swirl in the Atlantic. Public health experts are watching closely, he explained, to see if this virus will turn into a pandemic, just as weather experts would keep a close eye on a brewing storm to determine if it would develop into a hurricane.
Agwunobi said we're at 3 of 6 levels on the scale that rates the world's proximity to a pandemic flu situation. And he urged states to prepare for the worst, because the federal government won't be able help everyone.
"Any community that fails to prepare because it thinks the federal government will rush to its aid will be tragically mistaken," Agwunobi said. "It's not because we don't want to. It's impossible. How could we be in every community simultaneously? The federal government, fortunately, is not that big."
He also pointed out that while Hurricane Katrina strained emergency management for perhaps several weeks, a flu pandemic could last as long as 18 months. It won't stop, he explained, until 30 percent of the population is either infected or vaccinated.
All 50 states have first generation flu pandemic plans, said James Blumenstock, senior principal director of public health protection and preparedness policy at the Association of State & Territorial Health Officials. But those plans should be updated, he said.
"Full engagement is required by members of every sector of society," Blumenstock said. He added that families can stock their pantries. Businesses can make sure their continuity of operations plans are workable. States can maintain fully-equipped public health systems.
Legislators have some decisions to make in the near future, Blumenstock said. The federal government will divvy up 44 million courses of antiviral medication, based on states' populations. Another 31 million courses will be available for states to purchase at a 25 percent discount. Legislatures should decide, Blumenstock said, how many additional courses the state should purchase, if any, and who would receive the drugs.
"For state legislatures, that's a significant decision point," Blumenstock said.
These experts stressed that even if the next pandemic is mild or far away, making these preparations can't hurt.
"It's better," Agwunobi said, "to prepare too much and deal with a minor event than to prepare too little and deal with a major event."
NCSL is the bipartisan organization that serves the legislators and staffs of the states, commonwealths and territories. It provides research, technical assistance and opportunities for policymakers to exchange ideas on the most pressing state issues and is an effective and respected advocate for the interests of the states in the American federal system.
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