In 2006, state legislators across the nation will look to the past and the future. They'll react to the natural disasters, federal actions and court decisions of 2005. And they'll focus years ahead as they craft energy, education and emergency preparedness policies to keep this nation strong. Here is NCSL's forecast of the issues expected to be big this year.
"2006 will be an intense year for state lawmakers," said NCSL Executive Director William Pound. "The breadth of issues on this year's top ten list is a testimony to the varied and complicated world the state legislature has become."
1. Planning for Emergencies
The hurricanes of 2005 left unprecedented destruction in the Gulf states. They also exposed flaws in disaster response. The governors of Louisiana and Mississippi called special sessions to deal with the crises there in late 2005. Other states will confront disaster readiness this session.
NCSL’s Task Force on Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness will take a broad look at the issues. Ideas the group will explore include requiring stronger building codes, upgrading infrastructure, and establishing "State Guard" systems to be deployed when the National Guard is overseas.
Public health will be part of the equation as well. States will look at how hospitals can plan for catastrophic events, including a pandemic influenza outbreak. In an address to the National Press Club in October, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt called on every state and local government to develop a plan for a possible pandemic flu outbreak. For more information about public health, go to www.ncsl.org/programs/health/publich.htm.
2. Closing the Energy Gap
The violent hurricane season raised gas and home heating costs to staggering heights. States responded with legislation to help consumers. Some, such as Georgia and Michigan, temporarily eliminated gas taxes. Louisiana banned price gouging. New Hampshire called a special session to discuss ways to help the poor pay their energy bills. Pennsylvania, looking at the government’s own consumption, scheduled workshops to help cities conserve. Others downsized their automobile fleets. A total of 17 states expect to consider or make supplemental appropriations in FY 2006 to address higher fuel and heating costs. Watch for states to examine the strategies of last year.
They will also devise new ones as they look for long-term solutions. Ten states have adopted renewable energy portfolio standards in recent years, and more are expected to consider these programs in 2006. Such standards require energy retailers to derive a percentage of their fuel from renewable sources.
For more information about state energy policies, go to www.ncsl.org/programs/esnr/energy2.htm. Also, State Budget Update, November 2005 includes a section on how states will respond to high energy costs in 2006. For a copy, send an email to press-room@ncsl.org.
3. Tax and Spending Limits
In November, Colorado voters overrode a section of the nation's most restrictive spending limit, effectively giving up more than $3 billion in tax refunds. California voters shot down a spending limit proposal backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Tax and expenditure limits are expected to be proposed in many more states in 2006, now that states are recovering from the budget woes of recent years.
During the past five years, states dug out of a $263.8 billion budget hole, and lawmakers had to prioritize. But states are now reporting an improving picture, with the year-end balance at the close of FY 2006 projected at 4.6 percent. Ballot initiatives to curb government spending are expected in Maine and Ohio. Legislatures could discuss similar measures in Kansas and Wisconsin.
As property values escalate, state lawmakers are working with local officials to provide some relief for homeowners. At least seven states will explore property tax relief or reform this session, according to a November survey that asked state legislative budget offices what their state's fiscal priorities would be this year. In 2005, Nevada capped at 3 percent the percentage the assessed value of a home can increase in a year. Georgia, South Carolina and Texas tried to find a way to reduce property taxes too, especially for those on fixed incomes. They'll come back to the drawing board in 2006.
For more information about state tax and expenditure limits as well as other fiscal issues, go to www.ncsl.org/programs/fiscal/index.htm.
4. Defining “Public Use”
A June 2005 U.S. Supreme Court decision about the use of eminent domain provoked a burst of legislation from the states still in session. In Kelo vs. New London, justices said that the 5th Amendment allows a locality to condemn property for economic development that would benefit the public at large. The Court left the door open for states to pass more restrictive laws, and to define "public use" for themselves.
In 11 of the 12 states that were still in session, lawmakers introduced legislation to adjust their own eminent domain statutes. Bills passed in Alabama, Delaware, Ohio and Texas. Momentum will carry this issue into 2006. These discussions have broad implications for both land owners and urban renewal efforts in states and localities. For more information about eminent domain and other land use issues, go to www.ncsl.org/programs/natres/natres.htm.
5. Funding Education
States spend about a third of their general fund budgets each year on K-12 education. But many say that’s not enough to meet the requirements of the federal No Child Left Behind Act. While the federal government provided some additional flexibility to states in 2005, many legislators say schools need more. Twenty states considered NCLB-related bills in 2005. Legislation requested more federal funding, waivers from certain parts of the law and permission for school districts not to comply. The Connecticut legislature passed a measure supporting its attorney general, who sued the federal government over the costs of implementation.
Legislative budget offices in 15 states named education one of their top three fiscal issues for 2006 in a recent NCSL survey. Many of those states will focus on higher education, whose funding was cut as states struggled through the recession. The result of those cuts is higher costs for students. Factoring in inflation, tuition and fees at four-year public universities increased 54 percent during the past decade, according to the College Board's Trends in College Pricing 2005 survey. The biggest increase in any five-year period since 1975 occurred between 2000 and 2005 during tough times for states. State support for higher education between FY 2001 and FY 2004 only increased 2 percent. State funding was largely replaced with higher tuition and fees.
Look for states in 2006 to restore some higher education funding, examine new ways to disperse it and consider capping tuition. In a summer 2005 NCSL survey, 10 states said they would boost higher ed appropriations by 10 percent or more for fiscal year 2006. In 2005, Colorado unveiled a new system that disperses a portion of college money to the student, rather than to the university, in an effort to get the state's public institutions out from under a spending limit and allow them to increase tuition. Illinois has guaranteed tuition rates for new enrollees. States are also expected to set aside more funding for need-based financial aid. NCSL has a Blue Ribbon Legislative Commission on Higher Education that is exploring other avenues as well.
Visit the NCSL Education page at www.ncsl.org/programs/educ/edu.htm.
6. Examining Immigrant Rights
Today, one in nine U.S. residents is an immigrant – the largest proportion of the American population ever. And immigrants don’t all live in border states and big cities anymore. Arkansas, Georgia and North Carolina all saw their foreign-born populations increase by more than 200 percent during the last decade, according to the U.S. Census. Most newcomers are in the country legally, but the Pew Hispanic Center estimates that 29 percent are unauthorized immigrants who pose policy challenges for all levels of government. Many of those challenges are falling to the states as the federal government hands them more responsibilities.
In the first half of 2005, state lawmakers considered nearly 300 immigrant and refugee bills. Thirty-six passed. Colorado, Florida, Maine and Washington enhanced immigrant access to benefits. Virginia prohibited unauthorized immigrants from receiving state or local public benefits. New Mexico granted in-state tuition to certain unauthorized immigrant students. Arizona’s bill to prohibit in-state tuition for illegal immigrant students passed the Legislature but was vetoed by the governor.
The pace of immigration isn’t slowing. In 2006, legislators will continue to examine complex and emotional immigration issues including benefits, higher education, employment, identification and law enforcement. Visit NCSL’s Immigrant Policy Project online at www.ncsl.org/programs/immig.
7. GPS for Sex Offenders
The high-profile murders of 10-year-old Jessica Lunsford and 13-year-old Sarah Lunde in 2005 turned state and federal attention to sex crime laws. States passed more than 100 bills last session imposing longer sentences, banning “sex trafficking,” requiring sex offenders to disclose more information when they register, and further restricting their activities.
The states’ newest strategy is Global Positioning Satellite technology to track sex offenders’ whereabouts at all times. Nine states passed laws employing GPS for this purpose in 2005, Florida among them. After the abduction, assault and murders of Jessica in February and Sarah in April, Florida revamped its laws.
Jessica’s father, Mark Lunsford, is campaigning in other states to get similar statutes adopted.
For more information on criminal justice issues, go to www.ncsl.org/programs/cj/crime.htm.
8. Dealing with Real ID
The state of Washington, which is home to just 4 percent of U.S. licensed drivers, estimates it will need to spend $45 million a year for the next six years to comply with the federal Real ID Act of 2005. And that’s just for the parts of the law already set in stone. States aren't sure exactly what is required of them, because all the rules haven’t been written yet. Nevertheless, they must comply by May 2008.
Many states have not been in session since the passage of Real ID, which aims to standardize driver's licenses and the process through which states administer them. Licensing noncommercial drivers historically has been the purview of the states. Real ID changes that, but provides minimal funding to accomplish its mandates.
A few things that are certain at this point: The 11 states without laws that require drivers to prove they are in the country legally must develop them, and the 10 states that accept certain foreign documents as identification to obtain a license must ban that practice. States, beginning this year, will also have to establish ways to authenticate documents that residents present as identification when seeking a driver's license. And they will have to make licenses more difficult to duplicate.
NCSL’s summary of the federal legislation is online at www.ncsl.org/standcomm/sctran/realidsummary05.htm.
9. Contemplating Stem Cell Research
The debate over regenerative medicine will endure in state legislatures in 2006. Last year, states considered more than 170 bills on embryonic and adult stem cell research. More than a dozen states will carry over legislation, and others will consider new bills. Should embryonic stem cell research be legal? Should state funds support it? Should the state fund adult stem cell research instead? These are questions lawmakers will contemplate in 2006.
A carry-over bill in Illinois would put a bond measure on the November ballot asking voters to approve $1 billion for stem cell research. A Missouri coalition is gathering signatures to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot there supporting stem cell research.
Legislation on this topic has become popular in states since 2001, when federal grants were limited to projects using stem cells derived from embryos existing before 2001. In 2005, Massachusetts passed a law permitting scientists to do research on new embryonic stem cells but has not put money into funding it. Connecticut passed a 10-year $100 million plan to fund the research but limits research embryos to under 14 days of growth. And New Jersey awarded state grants for research. Last year, legislatures in Indiana and Wisconsin passed bills to ban cloning for any purpose, including research. (The Wisconsin governor vetoed that state's legislation.) In 2005, Indiana created an adult stem cell research center and Virginia created an adult stem cell research fund. NCSL’s Genetics Technologies Project is online at www.ncsl.org/programs/health/genetics.htm.
10. It’s a Campaign Year
Legislators won't always be thinking only of the vote at hand this session. Hard-fought campaigns will take place in 2006, when 84 percent of the nation’s 7,382 state legislative seats expire.
From a national perspective, state legislatures have been at or near even in terms of party control since 2000. No major changes occurred in 2005, when only the New Jersey and Virginia house chambers were up for election. Democrats picked up a few seats, giving them 15 more legislative seats nationwide, than Republicans. But Republicans still control two more chambers and one more legislature than do the Democrats.
Control of many legislative chambers will be in play in '06 elections. In 17 state Senates, a shift of only three seats would put a new party in power. In 12 state Houses, a shift of five or fewer seats would change control. Both chambers will be highly competitive in Colorado, Delaware, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Oregon and Tennessee.
The governor’s mansion is up for grabs in 36 states in 2006. Republicans have held more of them for several years. They currently lead Democrats 28-22. Of the states holding 2006 governor elections, 22 are currently Republican and 14 are Democrat. For more election 2006 information, go to www.ncsl.org/programs/legismgt/legman.htm.
NCSL is the bipartisan organization that serves the legislators and staffs of the states, commonwealths and territories. It provides research, technical assistance and opportunities for policymakers to exchange ideas on the most pressing state issues and is an effective and respected advocate for the interests of the states in the American federal system.
