Session Date: August 18, 2005
Annual Meeting Session Summary: Changing Demographics, What Lies in Store for States
By John Handy
Communications Specialist, House Republican Caucus
This summary is provided for information purposes only. NCSL does not endorse any views it contains.
SEATTLE – Demographic forecasting is becoming a popular tool to help lawmakers make informed decisions on a myriad of public policy issues, a leading demographer told state legislators and staff at the National Conference of State Legislatures' 2005 "Strong States, Strong Nation" Annual Meeting.
The 2000 Census has provided the federal government, demographers, and lawmakers more information on America than ever before, said William H. Frey, Ph.D., a demographer from the University of Michigan’s Population Studies Center and the Brookings Institute. As they determine exactly what the data means, one thing is for sure: emerging demographics will have ramifications for future elections, public policy, and the country’s workforce.
Based on his interpretation of demographic trends, Frey predicts states will have their Electoral College numbers altered in the next couple decades. For example, by 2030, he believes Florida and Texas will gain nine and eight Electoral College votes, respectively. By that same year, Frey believes New York could lose six Electoral College votes with Pennsylvania and Ohio each losing four.
In the 2004 election, final presidential Electoral College results favored “red states” (Republican) over “blue states” (Democrat) 286-252. Frey believes by 2032 “red state” numbers in the Electoral College could outpace “blue states” by a margin of 303-235.
“The good news for Democrats is that demographers are often wrong,” Frey said jokingly.
Frey believes three main engines are driving changing demographics in America: immigration, the aging of the Baby Boomer generation, and the middle class flight from expensive urban and coastal areas into the interior West and Southeast. He breaks changing demographics down into three distinct regions: Melting Pot, New Sunbelt, and Heartland.
The Melting Pot region includes major metro areas with racially diverse and immigrant populations. The New Sunbelt region encompasses expanding communities in the South and West that lie outside dense, urbanized areas. The Heartland region includes around 29 states that do not see high levels of migration and, for the most part, are older and less diverse.
Frey noted that racial demographics for America show that in the next 50 years minority groups such as Hispanics and Asians will triple their size, with African Americans doubling their numbers. The White population is expected to stay relatively the same. He also explained that the 2000 Census shows that more people are identifying themselves as one or more races.
Frey also believes that the early retirement of the Baby Boomers – the largest generation ever in America – will offer younger generations more opportunities.
NCSL is a bipartisan organization that serves legislators and staffs of the states, commonwealths and territories. It provides research, technical assistance and opportunities for policymakers to exchange ideas on the most pressing state issues and is an effective and respected advocate for the interests of the states in the American federal system.
### |
