Political Experts Discuss Election Season at NCSL Meeting

Donna Brazile, Bill Kristol, expect surprises by November

SALT LAKE CITY - The race to the White House could turn into a fast-break for one candidate, or both could remain neck and neck during the next five months, nationally-renowned political observers told state legislators Friday.

Speaking at the final session of the National Conference of State Legislatures' Annual Meeting, CNN commentator Donna Brazile and Weekly Standard Editor Bill Kristol saw conflicting images when asked to look into a crystal ball.

"It's just as likely that this race is not close as it is that it's close, Kristol said. "No reelection has been close since 1960."

Brazile agreed, "This is going to be a very dynamic election, and it could break."

Brazile and Kristol agreed that the race is tight at the moment. They also agreed on some battleground states: Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina. Kristol added West Virginia. Brazile, whose list included all states won in 2000 by a less than 5 percent margin, added Maine, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon and Arizona.

"We'll return to these states to plant some seeds," said Brazile, who was Al Gore's campaign manager in 2000.

Kristol pointed out that Republican states from the last election have had greater population growth than the Democratic states, and Brazile worries about some long-time blue states turning purple. She expressed confidence in the strength of the Democratic party, though. And Kristol offered historical evidence that the future might not bode well for Bush. "Political scientists agree," Kristol said, "that if an incumbent is even or behind, he's in trouble." 

Furthermore, the fact that Republicans control the Senate and the House could be bad news for the current president, Kristol said. "Any grievances anyone has had with Washington are easy to blame on the Republicans. It's a structural problem that makes it harder for Bush to run for president."

Both experts predict that surprises will happen between now and November, and Brazile urged state legislators to focus on their own races, rather than the presidential campaign.

"There's no question that this electoral season, you have to run as the person you are," Brazile said.