July 22, 2004
Top 10 State Legislative Election Sites Named
NCSL identifies key states in 2004 political landscape
SALT LAKE CITY - Republicans and Democrats will vie for control of
state legislatures this fall almost as intensely as they'll fight for the
White House.
The National Conference of State Legislatures today identified the Top
10 state legislative election battlegrounds. From Maine to Washington,
these hotly contested election battles could alter the nation's political
landscape.
More than 78 percent of the 7,382 seats in the nation's state
legislatures are up for grabs this year. In 25 chambers, a shift of just
three seats could alter party control. In other cases, tied chambers could
shift over one party line.
"With only a handful of races for governor this year, the battle to win
states will be waged in legislative elections," said Tim Storey, NCSL
senior fellow who tracks elections and redistricting issues. "The two
major parties are at near parity. The big question for 2004 is this: Will
the Democrats reverse a trend that has seen seats drop away steadily for
30 years? Or will the GOP solidify its status as the majority party in
legislatures?"
New redistricting plans could turn the tide in several states.
Georgia's new lines give House Republicans renewed hope for competing for
the majority. Montana's reapportionment has given the Democrats optimism
that control of the House of Representatives is within their reach.
The current majorities hold just one-seat advantages in the Colorado
Senate, the Indiana House of Representatives and the Maine Senate. Control
is currently shared in the North Carolina House of Representatives and the
Oregon Senate. Three seats separate the majority from the minority party
in the Oklahoma House. Pivotal races will also take place in the Vermont
House, and in both chambers in Washington.
Leaders in the Republican and Democratic campaign committees say races
could tight in unexpected places, too.
"I think we're in sort of a 50/50 nation," said Alex Johnson, executive
director of the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee. "There are a
lot of chambers that are close. I think the presidential race will have a
big impact on where states fall after the election."
Pennsylvania Representative Mike Veon, treasurer of the Democratic
Legislative Campaign Committee, said he believes that the increase in
turnout expected in this presidential election year will impact state
legislative races.
At the same time, though, Veon added, state legislative races stand on
their own. "Both parties have ratcheted up the level of sophistication in
statehouse campaigns," Veon said. "Even though the numbers are smaller in
state legislative races, today, they look exactly like Congressional
races. That's significantly different than it was 10 years ago."
Here is NCSL's list of the top ten legislative election battlegrounds,
in alphabetical order.
- Colorado Senate. Democrats need just one seat to take
power of the chamber from the Republican Party.
- Georgia House of Representatives. A new redistricting plan
gives Republicans the best chance they've had in decades to make gains.
- Indiana House of Representatives. Democrats hold a one
seat advantage in a chamber that has gone back and forth in recent
years.
- Maine Senate. Only one seat separates the parties in
this chamber in a state which is expected to be a presidential
battleground.
- Montana House of Representatives. A new redistricting
plan gives Democrats their best hope in years to seize control of the
House.
- North Carolina House of Representatives. Following the
2002 election, a party switch left the chamber tied and legislative
power shared by both parties.
- Oklahoma House of Representatives. Republicans, who
have had steady gains in recent elections, only need three seats to take
control of this chamber.
- Oregon Senate. Tied 15 to 15, both parties are
determined to seize control.
- Vermont House of Representatives. With more third
party members than any other state, a coalition leadership might not be
out of the question.
- Washington Senate and House of Representatives. This
has been the most competitive legislature in the past decade. Both
chambers are toss-ups.
NCSL is the bipartisan organization that serves the legislators and
staffs of the states, commonwealths and territories. It provides research,
technical assistance and opportunities for policymakers to exchange ideas
on the most pressing state issues and is an effective and respected
advocate for the interests of the states in the American federal
system.
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