December 23, 2003NCSL Releases Top 10 Issues Forecast for State Legislatures 36 state legislatures set to convene in January DENVER -- Budgets and elections are major backdrops for the 2004 state legislative sessions, according to a top 10 list issued today by the National Conference of State Legislatures. NCSL issued its annual forecast as 36 state legislatures prepare for the start of their regular legislative sessions next month. Budgets. State legislatures have closed an estimated $200 billion budget gap during the last three years. Although there are indications the national economy is improving, state tax revenue traditionally lag months behind national economic trends. Consequently, lawmakers generally will have little discretionary funds to use for new programs and some states will have to make decisions to enact cuts or increase fees. After Alabama voters overwhelmingly rejected an historic tax package last fall, there is little reason to expect lawmakers to approve tax hikes, especially in an election year. Fiscal officers note that Medicaid and other health care programs, in particular, continue to exert enormous pressure on state budgets. Political Polarization. With 78 percent of state legislative seats up for grabs this year, there's sure to be a political spin on everything that needs to be accomplished this session. Picking up three or fewer seats could change control in some 22 chambers. The White House and control of Congress also are up for grabs. Bitter redistricting battles in Texas and Colorado last year won't soon be forgotten. The issue is likely to be raised in other states as the year progresses. This, and a potentially landmark court case on gerrymandering, could shake up the playing field as Democrats and Republicans fight for the votes of the American public.Energy. The August blackout made people realize just how vulnerable America is to a disruption in the power system. Critics call the current grid infrastructure antiquated. State policymakers will examine this issue, and see what they can do about it. In addition, lawmakers will hear from their constituents on the increased costs of natural gas, which have doubled in the last couple of years. Higher prices have made their way down to consumers, and lawmakers will study the effects of this jump and how to address it.Education Testing and Funding. State legislatures continue to struggle with implementation of the federal No Child Left Behind Act. As states get another year further into the program, legislators and administrators will work to meet the law's requirements, without the full funding needed to meet those challenges. Schools nationwide continue to struggle to recruit and retain quality teachers. Meanwhile in higher education, look for continued drops in funding as state budget woes persist. Air Quality. With little progress in Congress in passing or reaching consensus on alternatives to the president's Clear Skies initiative, expect states to take the lead in considering options to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and mercury. Litigation filed by states against the Environmental Protection Agency's stance on global warming may also prompt legislative activity to curb emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change. Other clean air issues that may receive legislative attention include new source review, alternative fuel vehicles and regulating the use of MTBE as a gasoline additive due to concerns over groundwater pollution.Prescription Drugs. Senior citizens and others continue to pressure legislators on the cost of prescription drugs. States near the northern borders are looking at buying drugs from Canada, where the cost is lower. Lawmakers will continue to seek more aid for residents with state subsidies, discounts and alternative purchasing plans.Workers' Compensation. As premium costs continue to rise for employers, states face challenges in managing the legal and medical costs associated with the Workers' Compensation system. California, Florida, Washington and West Virginia passed reform legislation in 2003. Many other states are sure to follow. Legislatures are challenged to keep insurance premiums low while ensuring the health and welfare of injured workers.Criminal Justice. The impact of technology on criminal justice is expected to continue in 2004. This will include expansion of DNA offender databases and review of post-conviction remedies and statutes of limitations for certain crimes based on availability of DNA evidence. And some states will consider updating systems for housing and sharing crime information to help track offenders and investigate crime, as well as for antiterrorism efforts. Treatment vs. incarceration will continue to be debated in legislatures, especially for some drug offenders, probation and parole violators and other nonviolent offenders.Consumer Protection. The "is-it-on-or-is-it-off" status of the national do-not-call registry that contains 51 million names will likely remain in legal limbo for some time. But states are expected to continue to look at telemarketing regulations in 2004, including bonding, licensing and registration of the firms. States also will continue to address financial privacy and identity theft this year. Policymakers must balance the legitimate needs of information sharing against concerns that personal information can be stolen and used for illegal purposes.Obesity. Obesity is becoming an obsession. More than 60 percent of all Americans are overweight or obese, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It costs the nation more than $117 billion in health care, lost wages and other economic costs. Increasing attention is focused on the high numbers of obese young people. Nutrition standards for foods served in schools will continue to dominate policies to prevent obesity.NCSL is the bipartisan organization that serves the legislators and staffs of the states, commonwealths and territories. NCSL provides research, technical assistance and opportunities for policymakers to exchange ideas on the most pressing state issues and is an effective and respected advocate for the interests of the states in the American federal system.### | Gene Rose
NCSL Public Affairs Director
303-856-1518 |
