The Real Race is in the States

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September 2004

The Real Race Is in the States

The two parties are neck and neck in the states, with near parity in legislative seats. But control could change in as many as 19 chambers.

By Tim Storey

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With so much media attention focused on the dead-even race for the White House, many Americans might overlook the intriguing and unpredictable war for political dominance in state capitals, and that’s too bad. Democrats and Republicans have battled to a near-perfect stalemate for control of states where true policy innovation is ongoing. The big question for 2004 elections is will a tide rise for one of the two parties or is 50-50 government here for awhile?

Republicans are fighting to pad the slim majority of total legislative seats they achieved in 2002. Democrats hope to bounce back from a 50-year low.

Eminent legislative scholar Alan Rosenthal of Rutgers University says the Democrats are "at a low ebb" and could make some marginal gains this year. But, he points out, "Most districts are safe for one party or the other."

And that may result in a prolonged era of minimal partisan change in control. The critical nature of the handful of competitive seats cannot be overstated, says Rosenthal. Those seats hold the key to winning state legislatures.

Nearly 80 percent of the nation's 7,382 state legislative seats are up for grabs in November in the 44 states with regular elections scheduled. There are no general election contests in six states--Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia--and no regular Senate elections in Michigan and Minnesota. In all other states, it's the election year, and you can expect the unexpected.

A NATION DIVIDED
Legislatures may be an almost perfect reflection of the political polarization that has come to define America. Republicans hold 50.3 percent of the nation's 7,333 partisan legislative seats. Democrats trail by less than a percentage point with 49.4. Third party legislators account for a paltry 0.2 percent of the partisan seats. (Voters select Nebraska's 49 senators in nonpartisan elections.)

Political scientist Thad Kousser of the University of California-San Diego notes that the dramatic division in legislatures comes as no surprise and that a sharply divided electorate may be the new status quo.

"Research confirms that we have historic levels of polarization," says Kousser.

The big picture view also reveals an evenly divided country. The number of states with split control of government remains at record high levels. Following 2003 switches in governors in California and New Jersey, 29 states have governance divided, with neither party having exclusive control of the House, Senate and governor's office. Republicans wield complete power in 12 states and Democrats in eight. This is only slightly better than the Democrats' low point following the 1996 election when they held the legislature and governor's mansion in six states.

In terms of controlling legislatures, there is again parity between the two parties with the GOP having the advantage going into November. Republicans hold the majority in both chambers in 21 state legislatures compared to the Democrats, who control 17. In 11 states, party control is split with neither party running both chambers. The chamber breakdown looks like this--houses: 26 Republican, 23 Democratic. senates: 27 Republican, 21 Democratic, 1 tied, 1 nonpartisan.

The "perfect parity" award goes to the Oregon Senate, which is currently the only tied body at 15-15. The North Carolina House continues to operate under a shared power agreement adopted when the chamber was tied 60-60 after a member switched from Republican to Democrat just after the 2002 election. That member switched back to the GOP prior to filing for this election, returning the GOP majority to 61-59.

Tim Storey is NCSL's elections expert.

State Legislatures Proudly Presents: NCSL StateVote 2004 - Post-Election Conference
What happened ... what does it mean?

Friday, Nov. 5, 2004
8 a.m.-2 p.m.
Washington, D.C.

In partnership with Fleishman-Hillard Inc., State Legislatures magazine is offering a unique conference opportunity on the Friday after the election. Designed for government relations professionals who work with state legislature and governors, this one day meeting will report and analyze all of the results from this year's state elections including the wide range of ballot measures before voters. In addition, NCSL expers will examine any political changes in Washington and what those mean for states.

For more information and to register, call or e-mail Nancy Rhyme at NCSL, (303) 856-1515 nancy.rhyme@ncsl.org

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