Ballot measure results are in for most races. One of the most striking features of this year’s results is the unusually low number of initiatives approved by voters. Between 1990 and 2004, an average number of 48 percent of citizen initiatives passed. This year it’s looking like it’ll be more like 35 – 40 percent. It’s likely that voter fatigue from long ballots contributed to this – there were more initiatives on the ballot this year than in any other year besides 1996 and 1914. In both of those years, there were 87 initiatives on the ballot; this year, there were 76.
Reducing the Power of Government
Another remarkable trend this year is the nearly complete failure of a spate of initiatives that sought to limit the power of government. These included
- the broader, more controversial property rights measures called regulatory takings (the narrower, more straightforward eminent domain measures are not included in this group),
- term limits,
- efforts to expand the initiative process,
- limits on the judiciary,
- tax and spending limitations (aka TABOR), and
- major tax and revenue cuts.
Of the 17 measures in this vein, just one passed – a combined regulatory takings/eminent domain initiative in Arizona. Similar measures in California and Idaho failed, as well as a simple regulatory takings initiative in Washington. Legislative term limits failed to pass in Oregon, which will almost certainly prove to be the nail in the coffin of the term limits movement. Measures to rein in the judiciary failed in three states, including South Dakota’s sweeping “judicial accountability” measure. This would have let a panel of volunteers draft rules for how judges, juries, prosecutors and certain local officials must make decisions. The panel would also be empowered to decide who followed the rules, and to punish those who didn’t with fines, jail time, and the loss of public pension and insurance benefits. The three TABOR proposals on the ballot all failed to pass as well.
This might seem like a surprising result, given the obvious anti-incumbent sentiment and frustration with government that were expressed in candidate election results. So why did they fail? These were faux-populist measures. Rather than arising from a grassroots movement and popular demand for these policy changes, the initiatives owe much to out-of-state supporters. Most petitions were circulated by out-of-state circulators, paid by out-of-state groups. Campaigns were also largely financed by out-of-state money. This fact was widely criticized in the media. Out-of-state influence in initiative campaigns is certainly not a new tendency, but has been growing steadily over the past decade. Perhaps voters finally said “enough is enough.” Another negative influence affecting the vote in these campaigns may have been the large number of measures in this vein that were blocked from the ballot by the courts for irregularities or outright fraud in the petition process (there were at least eight TABOR and regulatory takings measures blocked in five states). Again, this was widely reported in the media, and contributed to negative voter attitudes toward these issues this year.
Other Conservative-Leaning Measures
Most other conservative-leaning measures, with the exception of abortion, fared well in the polls yesterday. While all three abortion restrictions on the ballot failed, most bans on same-sex marriage passed. The single exception is Arizona, where voters rejected a same-sex marriage ban, something that had never happened before this year. Colorado voters also rejected creating domestic partnerships. It’s possible that the Reverend Haggert scandal that broke late last week in Colorado Springs attracted attention and sympathy among Colorado conservatives, influencing this vote. All immigration measures on the ballot in Arizona and Colorado also passed, along with a ban on affirmative action in Michigan.
Liberal-Leaning Measures
Liberal-leaning measures generally fared well yesterday, with a few exceptions. Minimum wage hikes passed in all six states where they were on the ballot. Missouri’s stem cell research measure is very close, but looks likely to pass. California voters rejected an oil tax to fund alternative energy research incentives, and a measure increasing usage of renewable energy in Washington is running close but looks likely to pass.
Other Notable Measures
While the property rights measures on regulatory takings didn’t fare so well, all of the straightforward eminent domain measures passed (these prohibit using eminent domain for economic development).
In three states (Arizona, Nevada and Ohio) there were competing smoking bans – in all 3 the stricter ban passed & the looser ban failed. Now 16 states have statewide smoking bans.
There were mixed results on tobacco tax increases – two passed (Arizona and South Dakota) and two failed (California and Missouri).
Expanded access to the Oregon prescription drug program passed.
All but one bond measure passed – total bonding authorized exceeds $43 billion.
Arizona voters rejected both the $1 million voter lottery & vote-by-mail
Rhode Island passed a measure automatically restoring voting rights to felons when they’re released from prison.
Criminal justice measures passed: no more probation for methamphetamine offenses in Arizona; strict monitoring for sex offenders in California and restrictions on where they can live; stricter punishment for sexual assault crimes against children in Hawaii.
Education measures saw very mixed results. Colorado’s “65% solution” proposals both failed. Funding increases for early childhood education were approved in Arizona & Nebraska. A requirement that education be funded before any other budget item passed in Nevada. All education-related bond measures passed. An estate tax repeal that would have cut education funding was rejected in Washington. Tax increases to fund education were rejected in California & Idaho. Mandatory funding levels for education failed in Michigan. A slot machine program generating revenue for scholarships failed in Ohio
Did Ballot Measures Affect Candidate Races?
There was much discussion leading into this year’s election about how same-sex marriage, minimum wage, and other clearly partisan measures might increase voter turnout and help one party or another’s candidates. There is no clear picture on this. Unlike the 2004 election in Ohio, when a same-sex marriage ban was the only statewide issue on the ballot and its influence was easy to see, this year’s ballots were crowded in many states, with plenty of measures on both ends of the political spectrum and in between. It is difficult if not impossible to untangle the results of ballot measure and candidates races to determine how they might have influenced each other.
