Changes in State Tax Collections 2000 to 2007, quarterly
Ron Snell
This chart summarizes changes in state tax collections from 2000 through the third quarter of 2007. The chart indicates the effect the national recession and subsequent recovery had on state tax collections in those years.
The data in the chart show the percentage change in state tax collections quarter by quarter from the beginning of calendar year 2000 through the end of calendar year 2005. "Change" is the percentage difference in one quarter from the corresponding quarter in the previous fiscal year: for example, the first quarter of 2005 compared to the first quarter of 2004. It is important to note that this is not the same as quarter-to-quarter change.
Change is shown both in nominal terms -- dollars taken in -- and adjusted for changes in state law and the effect of inflation. The line that reflects adjusted figures indicates that the decline in collections from 2000 to 2002 bottomed out at a lower point than nominal figures show, and that the subsequent recovery was not as dramatic as nominal figures indicate. When inflation and tax law changes are factored out, state tax collections have shown slow growth since the first quarter of 2006.
Quarterly Change in 50-State Tax Collections, 2000-2007 Nominal Collections and Real Collections (Adjusted for Inflation and Changes in Law)

Notes:
- Data represent percentage change compared to corresponding quarter in the previous fiscal year.
- "Real change" includes adjustment for changes in law and for inflation.
Source: Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government, "Percentage Change in Quarterly State Tax Revenue With Adjustments: National Data 1991–2007," available at http://www.rockinst.org/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=13500
Posted February 2008.
E-mail statefiscal-info@ncsl.org for more information.
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