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Appendix A |
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Were total individual income tax collections for April 2002 above, below or on target with your revenue forecast? By what amount and percent did they deviate. |
Were total individual income tax collections for Jan. - April 2002 above, below or on target with your revenue forecast? By what amount and percent did they deviate. |
In your estimation, what accounts for any significant deviation in actual collections from the forecast, e.g., capital gains drop-off or other non-withheld income, increased refunds, drop in estimated payments, etc.? |
What are your thoughts on how the April collections will influence the FY 2003 revenue forecast and the FY 2003-2004 budget cycle? |
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Alabama |
Total individual income tax collections were $6.4 million (2.87%) below estimate for April. |
Total individual income tax collections were $41.6 million (4.9%) below estimate for January-April. |
Capital gains drop-off. |
Grave concern, hoped for conservatism, and prayerful wishes for a recovery. |
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Arizona |
Total individual income tax collections were below estimate by $32 million or 11%. |
Total individual income tax collections were below forecast by $88 million or 13% for the period January through April. |
Capital gains drop-off, increased refunds, and a drop in estimated payments. |
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Arkansas |
Total individual income tax collections were below the November forecast by $3.3 million or 1.8 percent. First estimated tax filing date is May 15th, followed by the 2nd which is due June 15. |
Total individual income tax collections were below target by $20 million or 3.2% (If adjusted for January to December shift: Below target by $10.1 million or 1.3%). |
Drop in estimated payments is due equally to drop in capital gains and other non-withheld income such as interest. |
State tax filing date is May 15th. Based on other state reports, collections will most likely be under forecast by 15% in balance dues and the 1st and 2nd estimated tax payments. Revenue forecast will likely be cut for a third time at the end of May. The 3rd and 4th estimated payments occur in FY 2002, so the likelihood is that we will reduce the FY 2003 revenue forecast. This in turn will impact the budget plan for the 2003-2005 biennium. |
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California |
Total individual income tax collections were below estimate for April. |
Total individual income tax collections were below estimate for the January-April period. |
Drop in capital gains and stock options related revenues. |
The FY 2003 revenue forecast and the FY 2003-2004 budget will be reduced. |
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Colorado |
Below target by $52 million in April. |
Total individual income tax collections were below estimate for the January-April period. |
Estimated payments and capital gains down. |
The FY 2003 revenue forecast will have to be dropped significantly |
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Connecticut |
Total individual income tax collections were down in April by $227 million (23.6%) compared to forecast. |
Total individual income tax collections were down $390 million (17.8%) in the January-April period compared to forecast. |
The stock market bubble is unwinding. Bonuses are down in 2001 compared to 2000; this is connected to the stock market decline. Some job loss, even though overall economy is strong. Capital gains tax collections down by 40% or more. |
Revenues coming in under projections in FY2002 have lowered the base for FY2003. Debate is over what to do with growth rates. There may still be more capital gains losses out there, which may depress growth in revenues. |
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Delaware |
Delaware had an April 30 due date for final returns and estimated payments. As such, receipts through April 30 are inconclusive. However, it is sensed that revenues are tracking more or less in line with estimate. Forecast was for a 20% decline. For April through May 14th, withholding is up 12.9%, estimated payments down 10.5%, final payments down 17.9%, and total PIT down 1.9%. |
Adjusting for faster processing, total receipts for the January - April period appear to be in line with expectations. |
Drops in capital gains and stock options related revenues have had a big impact on receipts. |
State has been fortunate that forecast has held up pretty well. Though state is a couple of weeks behind other states in terms of processing, it looks as though CY 2001 capital gains have faired well. As such, it doesn't look like PIT will cause a shortfall in FY 2002 revenues, resulting in less cash to carry over into the FY 2003 budget. The FY 2003 outlook, however, is pretty grim. The working assumption is that the stock market's "correction" will take a couple of years to work itself through state PIT collections. Capital gains are projected to fall again in CY 2002 and FY 2003, with estimated and final payments coming in slightly below FY 2002. |
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Georgia |
Moving averages are forecast rather than monthly amounts. Consequently, there is no forecast for April as a single month. |
Total collections for Jan-Apr, 2002, are roughly $60 million or 2.2 percent above expectations. |
Average hourly and weekly earnings have risen by more than expected. |
One month's collections in FY 2002 will not independently influence FY 2003 or FY 2004 forecasts or budget cycles. |
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Hawaii |
April collections exceeded expectations largely because of few non-recurring extraordinary payments. |
The 2.9% gain in April collections results from the one-time extraordinary payments with return. Otherwise, lower withholdings, estimated payments, and higher refunds better reflect the Jan.-March pattern of below-target realization against a FY 2002 forecast of 1.9% individual income tax growth. |
Estimated payments below expectation and refunds above expectation. |
April's uptick will bolster fiscal year individual income tax revenues against a deep drop from forecast. |
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Idaho |
Total individual income tax collections for April were $58.9 million (25.0%) below forecast. |
Total individual income tax collections for January-April were $87.6 million (19.8%) below estimate. |
The unsustainable "bubble" that formed in the late 90's/early 00's due to capital gains, bonuses, profit sharing, etc. was much larger than expected. Bigger bubble equals bigger pop. Income tax filings were below estimate by $66 million, withholding down by $29.4 million, and refunds below by $7.5 million. |
The outlook is painful, with serious problems likely ahead. |
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Illinois |
Total individual income tax collections for April were down 9.3% ($105 million) compared to estimate. |
Total individual income tax collections for January-April were 9.3% ($320 million) below estimate. |
Lower average employment, fewer bonuses and less interest and dividend income. |
Reduces revenue forecast by $300 million. |
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Indiana |
Total individual income tax collections for April were down 7.7% ($40.7 million) compared to estimate. |
Total individual income tax collections for January-April were 7.0% ($95.3 million) below estimate. |
In dollar amounts, the significant difference is in withholding because of Indiana's large manufacturing base. |
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Iowa |
Total individual income tax collections for April were down 12.6% compared to estimate. |
Total individual income tax collections for January-April were 3.5% below estimate. |
A substantial portion of the decrease in estimate payments may be attributed to decreased interest earnings. Another factor influencing estimate payments for tax year 2002 is an increased carry over credit from tax year 2001 applied to tax year 2002. A third factor is taxpayers adjusting tax year 2002 estimate payments downward due to their reduced tax year 2001 liability. The decrease in final return payments can largely be attributed to a substantial loss of jobs near the end of tax year 2001. This resulted in over withholding for this individuals for the year as a whole. When one analyzes the sources of the state fiscal problems about one-third can be attributed to the economy and the other two-thirds can be attributed to state or federal legislation. |
Iowa has a three-person body that sets official revenue estimates. That body met in special session in May and revised both FY 2002 and FY 2003 estimates downward by significant amounts. The FY 2002 estimate was decreased by $154.7 million (3.4%) to a fiscal year growth rate of -5.3%. The estimate for FY 2003 was revised downward by $212.5 million (4.6%), which results in an FY 2003 rate of growth compared to FY 2002 of only 0.1%. |
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Kansas |
Total individual income tax collections for April were down 14.2% ($39.2 million) compared to estimate. |
Total individual income tax collections for Jan.-April were 3.3% ($50.0 million) below estimate. |
We do not know for certain what is causing the reduction in final and estimated payments, and the increase in refunds. We believe the cause for these changes is a decrease in capital gains, interest and dividend income. |
The April (and May) income tax performance will cause further reductions in revenue estimates and budgets for FY 2003. |
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Kentucky |
Total individual income tax collections for April were below estimate. |
Total individual income tax collections for Jan.-April were below estimate. |
Revenue shortfall due mostly to a sharp drop in estimated payments. Withholding was also a bit low. |
Since refunds have been higher than anticipated it is natural to assume that something similar will happen next year. However, if the economy is in recovery, refunds may decline in FY 2003, and estimated payments rise. |
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Louisiana |
The current year forecast for personal income tax is for 4.5% growth over the previous year. Using the preliminary figures provided by the Department of Revenue for the month of April, revenues are currently running 4.83% over the year-to-date figures from FY 2001. |
The growth rate from January through April has steadily declined. Beginning in January, collections were 12% higher than the previous year and have now fallen to 4.83%. Individual income tax returns are due on May 15. |
Withholding declined during the months of March and April due to basically flat employment growth. |
Individual personal income is forecast to grow at 4% (assuming the renewal of some taxes that are scheduled to expire June 30, 2002). |
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Maine |
Individual income tax collections were below budget in April by $46.1 million (19.7%). |
Individual income tax collections were below budget for the Jan. to April period by $59.9 million (13.6%). |
Currently estimate that one-third of the shortfall is from weaker economic conditions in 2001 than forecasted, and the remaining two-thirds is from capital gains. |
Estimating a total budget shortfall of $90 million in FY 2002 and expect that to carry into FY 2003 and FY 2004. |
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Maryland |
Total individual income tax collections for April were below estimate by $124.5 million (17.9%). |
Individual income tax collections were below budget for the Jan. to April period by $78.1 million or (4.2%). February-April 2002 estimated and withholding numbers reflect the final phase of personal income tax cuts: the highest marginal tax rate is reduced from 4.8% for TY 2001 to 4.75% for TY 2002; and the personal exemption deduction amount is increased from $2,100 for tax year 2001 to $2,400 for tax year 2002. |
The drop in estimated payments is likely due to the drop off in capital gains. The deterioration of growth in withholding is likely due to a decline in employment and declines in bonuses and stock options that are largely market-related. These factors have also affected payments with returns and refunds. |
Estimated tax collections for TY 2002 collected in April 2002 are down by $31 million (20%) from TY 2001 estimated payments collected in April 2001. This is the first look at TY 2002 estimated taxes and will reduce the forecast for TY 2002 collections in FY 2003. The downward trend in withholding growth will also significantly reduce the forecast for withholding growth for at least FY2003. |
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Massachusetts |
Total individual income tax collections for April were down by about the expected amount in April. Total PIT collections are about $44 million (4%) under estimate. |
If May is included then revenues will be well under estimates. Expecting payments with returns to be off by 50% or $250 million to $300 million. |
Capital gains was estimated to be off 60% in FY 2002, although it was probably worse than that. Interest and dividend income is also down. Stock option income bottomed out at the end of 2000, mostly true of bonus activity also. All none withheld income under a "safe harbor" provison - since 2001 payments were off so much, even if capital gains picks up in 2002, they only have to pay as much as 2001, until final returns next April, so expect estimated income payments to be very soft again this year. Took some hit in April from federal bonus depreciation legislation, before state opted out. |
The revenue estimate was reduced in April, and now predicting revenue performance $200 million to $400 million under the revised estimate. |
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Michigan |
Total individual income tax collections for April were down 32.0% ($280 million) compared to estimate. |
Total individual income tax collections for January-April were 15.0% ($370 million) below estimate. |
The Michigan 2001 economy appears to have been substantially weaker than originally reported by the federal government statistics. The employment and incom edata for Michigan have been revised substantially. This weakness is reflected in estimated payments and the annual PIT. |
April collections will dramatically reduce both the FY 2002 and the FY 2003 revenue forecasts. We expect annual income tax payments to grow moderately in April 2003, but we do not expect annual PIT payments to rebound to their former level. |
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Minnesota |
When we make a forecast we do not make explicit monthly forecast for the refunds or final payments, the reason we do not is that the monthly numbers are almost meaningless due to variations in processing speed. Processing and opening of mail is way behind one year ago during this processing season. As of this writing, all of the "April 15th related mail" on hand has not been opened. Processing of refunds is likely to extend well into July.
Part of the reason for the large decline in estimated tax payment is timing, payments were processed much faster last year. However, much of the decline is real, it is estimated that when all of the payments classified as declarations are processed (most likely by May 31st) the percentage decline for the December-May period will be roughly 24.3%, and the April-May period decline will have been 28.6%. In the April-May period the estimated decline is $84.5 million and extensions are estimated to account for $61 million of it. |
All the information we have on average refunds and payments, and reasonable extrapolations of the number of refunds and payments indicate that when the books are closed, final payments and refunds will show a noticeable unfavorable variance relative to the forecast.
The one thing we have reasonably solid information on is extension payments, which are classified as estimated tax or declaration payments. One year ago, in April and May, $150 million were processed. It appears this year, with most of the extension payments processed that amount will be roughly $90 million. Withholding is 2.3% short of forecast for the February-April period or $26.8 million after removing unique timing events.
Estimated payments including extensions for the February-May period are estimated to be roughly $64.6 million short of forecast. This represents a variance of 19.9%. The variance from forecast is almost entirely due to lower extension payments. |
Capital gains probably declined significantly more than forecast.
IRA distributions probably declined more than forecast, the decline being the result of a weak stock market combined with rule changes on distributions. Wages were probably weaker than thought due to smaller bonuses and fewer stock option exercises. |
All other things equal a lower base and almost certainly implies a lower future forecast. |
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Mississippi |
Estimated general fund transfers from individual income tax for April 2002 is $154.3 million. Actual receipts to the general fund from individual income tax for April 2002 is $126.1 million. Actual receipts to the general fund from individual income tax for April 2002 is under the estimate by $28.2 million (18.3%). |
Estimated general fund transfers from the individual income tax for January-April was $336.3 million. Actual receipts to the general fund from individual income tax for Jan.- April is $278.4. Actual receipts to the general fund from individual income tax for January-April is under the estimate by $57.9 (17.2%). |
Collections received are lower than anticipated. |
April 2002 collections will not significantly affect the FY 2003 revenue forecast or the FY 2003-2004 budget cycle. |
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Missouri |
Actual collections for April 2002 were below revenue forecast by $31 million (4.3%). |
Actual collections for January-April were below forecast by $66 million (3.49%). |
Deviation in revenue performance is due to a drop in capital gains and the effects of the federal stimulus package. |
The influence of April collections on the FY 2003 revenue forecast will be a reduction of $235 million. |
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Montana |
Montana does not forecast collections by month. But it became clear after April that collections would be lower than the forecast for the year. The budgeted forecast for FY 2002 was $475 million; this has been revised to $435 million or an 8% revision. |
Montana does not forecast collections by month. |
Will not be able to fully answer this question until the tax year 2001 individual income tax master file is received this fall. However, expecting quarterly estimated payments to finish the year $20 million (12%) below collections last year. Current year payments (payments with returns) are expected to drop by 22%. |
The estimate of individual income tax collections was revised downwards by about 8% for fiscal 2002 based on April collections. This change in the base will flow through to the forecast for FY 2003. Expecting better performance in 2003, but the revised forecast is about 6% below the budgeted forecast for the biennium. The projected revenue gap may trigger automatic cuts in agency spending. |
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Nebraska |
Total individual income tax collections for April were down 24.5% ($42.6 million) from estimate. $22.6 million were refunds; some of this is due to misforecasting the timing of refunds. We changed our processing in response to a budget cut, and we are processing returns much faster than forecast. The average refund is also running ahead of forecast, however. |
Total individual income tax collections for January-April were 17.5% ($78.8 million) below the most recent "certified" estimate. |
Some or all of the suggested sources. Only withholding appears to be holding its own compared to forecast. |
April will probably reduce our net forecast of individual income tax by $60-70 milloin, or about 0.5 percent for FY 2002-2003. |
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New Jersey |
Total individual income tax collections for April were below forecast by $152 million (12.3%). |
The most recent revenue forecast used actual January and February. collections and revenues were close in March, so April difference is the significant one. |
Stock options was the most important - was up 17% in tax year 2000, went back to normal in 2001, reflected in final returns, withholding still slumping slightly. Capital gains was probably the second most important thing. |
The revenue forecast for FY2002 is down, which causes the base for FY2003 to be adjusted down by about $1.1 billion. Projecting slow withholding and estimated payments growth through 2002. Possible April surprise in 2003, as safe harbor could depress estimated taxpayers payments below what they should be, and they will need to catch up. |
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New Mexico |
Net collections were about 5% to 10% below the forecast for April. |
Net collections were about 5% to 10% below the forecast. |
Withholding is running several percentage points below forecast growth. Final payments and estimated payments are a few percentage points below forecasted growth. Refunds are generally consistent with expectations. |
FY 2002 will probably end up 2% to 3% below forecast. FY 2003 may be revised by a similar amount. |
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New York |
The New York State Division of the Budget reported a revenue shortfall of about $1.2 billion as a result of April tax collections. Virtually the entire amount of the reported revenue shortfall was due to an unexpected drop in net personal income tax collections. Net personal income tax collections for April were 28 % below the revenue forecast. |
Total personal income tax collections for January through April 2002 are below the revenue forecast. However, the amount of the revenue shortfall for the four-month period is unknown because the monthly cash-flow estimates of the revenue forecast are not available. |
There are several reasons for the revenue shortfall for January - April 2002 and April 2002 because of an unexpected drop in nonwage income. First, capital gains were probably less than forecast because of a severe decline in the NASDAQ stock market in 2001 along with a decrease in the exercise of stock options. Second, interest income was less than expected because of the Federal Reserve's decisions to cut short-term interest rates in 2001 to the lowest levels in years to combat a slowing economy. Third, business and partnership income for 2001 were likely below forecast because of the national recession. Finally, taxpayers may have over paid their estimated tax payments in April, June and September 2001 based on their prior year 2000 tax liability. Any overpayments of installments in 2001 accentuated the April 2002 decline in final payments with returns and extension payments, and the increase in refunds. |
The SFY2003 revenue forecast for the personal income tax will likely decline by the $1.2 billion revenue shortfall reported for April. However, the Executive Department and the Legislature found other revenues to close the revenue shortfall. If the economy and the financial markets do not improve as expected in SFY2003, a revenue shortfall will likely occur again, which may lengthen the budget cycle in SFY2004. |
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North Carolina |
Total returns for April were below forecast by $491.5 million (32.6%). |
Total returns were below forecast by $848.6 million (12.2%). |
All three examples account for the deviation. |
The fiscal 2002-03 forecast deficit has increased from c. $1.1 billion to c. $1.6 billion.
* Refund figures are based on weekly reporting periods: March 28 - April 25, 2002. |
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North Dakota |
Total individual income tax collections for April, net of anticipated refund reserve transfers, were $8.4 million (16.2%) below projections. |
Total individual income tax collections for January-April were 10.9% ($11.5 million) below estimate. |
We believe capital gains decreases are the primary reason. We decoupled from federal tax liability in a revenue neutral manner. |
Originally, we expected individual income taxes to grow 5% from FY 2002-2003. We will write-down that estimate significantly. |
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Ohio |
Revenues were below estimate by $116.3 million (11.4%) in April. May revenues could be about $250 million below estimate (25%). |
Collections from January to April were $399.6 million (13.9%) below estimate. |
We have had higher than expected refunds, lower estimated payments, and lower payments with returns. We think this is due to large drops-offs in capital gains (in the 50%) range), drops in small business profits (25%), and lower bonuses and stock options. |
April collections are clearly going to lower the base for income tax collections going forward. The low collections have caused us to lower estimates for FY 2003, creating a large budget gap to fill. |
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Oklahoma |
Revenues are not forecasted on a monthly basis. For FY 2002 year to date, revenues are ahead of prior year by 0.7% on a net apportioned basis. Estimated 2.9% growth rate for FY 2002. |
Revenues are not forecasted on a monthly basis. For FY 2002 year to date, revenues are ahead of prior year by 0.7% on a net apportioned basis. Estimated 2.9% growth rate for FY 2002. |
Reasonable to assume that the weakness in estimated tax is a result of adjusting for tax year 2001 decrease. Assumption holds that the capital gains distributions for 2001 were way down, and 2002 estimated payments reflect drop. Also, year-end bonuses were probably less as well. |
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Oregon |
Personal income tax collections for April 2002 were $143.2 million (23.2%) below the most recent revenue forecast (March 1, 2002). Relative to the budgeted forecast upon which the FY 2001-03 budget was based, April collections were $202.4 million less than projected. |
For January-April 2002, actual collections were $197.4 million (27.6%) below the March 2002 projection. Relative to the budgeted revenue forecast the four-month personal income tax collections were $371.6 million short, a 20.7% shortfall. |
Capital gains drop-off was already included in our forecast, but the drop could be larger than we thought. Stock options also dropped off but are not a large source of tax revenue for Oregon. Refunds increased by a great amount and estimated payments have been weak. Refunds are being looked at to see if there is a connection to estimated payments (i.e, taxpayers over paying by misjudging the severity of the economic downturn and now dropping their estimated payments). |
We see the April drop as a level shift down in our forecast. The trend and growth are still in place out into FY 2003 and FY 2004. We have lowered growth in previous forecasts based on lower capital gains. Our economic outlook remains the same, slow mild recovery in the second half of this calendar year, building strength into 2003. |
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Pennsylvania |
April 2002 revenues were $6.3 million (0.6%) below projections made in January 2002. An overage in payments with returns partially offset shortfalls in both withholding and estimated payments. The overage in payments with returns is the result of processing more returns in April 2002 as compared to prior years. A large shortfall is expected for payments with returns processed in May. |
January-April 2002 revenues were $69.4 million (2.4%) below projections made in January 2002. An overage in payments with returns partially offset shortfalls in both withholding and estimated payments. The overage in payments with returns is the result of processing more returns in April 2002 as compared to prior years. A large shortfall is expected for payments with returns processed in May. |
Job losses, capital gains drop-off, and a drop in estimated payments are primarily responsible for the decline in individual income tax collections. . |
April 2002 collections combined with what we currently know about May will necessitate changes in the expected FY 2002 revenue estimate. These downward revisions will flow through to future fiscal years, but the extent to which they will impact FY 2003 and FY 2004 is still unknown. |
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Rhode Island |
Total individual income tax collections for April 2002 were below the revenue forecast by $29.7 million (19.8%). |
Total individual income tax collections for January-April 2002 were below the revenue forecast by $37.7 million (11.45%). |
There was a significant decrease in estimated payments of $23.1 million (14%) from the forecast of $163.5 million. There was also a significant decrease in final payments of $27.3 million (19%) from the forecast of $141.9 million. Finally, there was a smaller deviation in refunds of $8.7 million (7%) from the forecast of $120.9 million. It is our belief that the deviations noted are due to the incurrence of capital losses by taxpayers over the 2001 tax year. |
The April collections caused the Revenue Estimating Conference to revise its estimate of FY 2002 and FY 2003 income tax collections downward by ($83.0 million) and ($76.2 million) respectively. |
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South Carolina |
Compared to the March revenue revision, total individual income tax collections are running $35 million behind according to SCDOR estimates. |
Compared to the March revenue estimate, year-to-date individual income tax collections are running $114 million behind. |
Capital gains drop-off and other non-withheld income, increased refunds, a drop in estimated payments, etc. are driving revenue collections down. |
If downward revenue trend does not reverse, state is facing an over 10 percent budget cut for next FY 2003. |
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Utah |
Total individual income tax collections for April are well below estimate but there is no monthly forecast. |
January-April individual income tax collections are well below estimate but there is no monthly forecast |
Capital gains drop-off, increased refunds, and falling estimated payments along with a weaker economy are at fault for the revenue shortfall. Capital gains were probably the most significant. A decline in bonuses was also a factor. |
Significant decreases for FY 2003 anticipated. What happens 2002 depends on developments in the next six months and if the economy comes back. |
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Vermont |
Total individual income tax collections for April are well below estimate. |
Personal income tax receipts were below target over the January to April period by $9.6 million (2.7%) of expected collections. |
Likely causes for the revenue shortfall include reduced capital gains income realized during the year, stirct personal income estimating rules which have stiff penalties for under-payment (which cause people to really plan to pay their annual liabilities in installments in whatever form), reduced business income due to the recession for persons who pay their business taxes through the personal income tax, and an inability to completely off-set the federal tax reductions. It also is likely that the relative absence (vis-à-vis previous years' levels) of significant acquisitionsor IPOs of significant closely-held Vermont companies also reduced tax payments this year. In past years through the 1990s, acquisition activity and several significant IPOs resulted in large tax payments during the April filing period. |
Revenue performance to date will likely have a negative impact on the FY 2003 and FY 2004 revenue estimates. Personal income tax payments are not likely to resume the pace set in the late 1990s. A $15 million to $25 million downward adjustment could be made in the FY 2003 and FY 2004 personal income tax consensus forecast revision this July--but there are still many unknowns in personal income estimates that may affect where in that range the actual revision will fall. This will somewhat be offset by the stronger than anticipated performance in the state's consumption taxes. A downward adjustment will also likely be made for the sub-par performance for the Corporate Income tax, but it is not yet determined how significant that will be. |
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Virginia
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Withholding on target with 2% growth estimate. Filing date is May 1 so April data for withholding is meaningless. Projected 10% decline in estimated payments and 20% percent decline in final payments for the month. For year project 11% decline in estimated payments and 40% decrease in final payments. |
In general, withholding has been very close to target. Expect about 3.5% growth, currently running at 2.8%. Estimated and final payments are the story, and mainly final payments. |
Capital gains is the primary reason for the drop in revenues. An expected drop of about 30% in capital gains payments now looks as though it is approaching over 50%. The final sins of the stock market/IPO craze has been paid. The top 5% who went from paying 33% in '93 to almost 50% by 2000 probably has fallen back dramatically. |
As usual, will blow out to the out years. This year is giving us a "base" void of market excesses, a first in 6 years. |
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West Virginia |
Total individual income tax collections for April were $25 million, (18%) above the estimate. |
Collections were $22.2 million (5.8%) above the estimate for January-April. |
A transfer from the Income Tax Refund Reserve Account and accelerated processing of payments with annual returns were largely responsible for the surplus. May revenues will likely be down due to the acceleration of collections into April. |
The growth in Withholding Tax and Payments with returns in April was largely attributable to accelerated processing. Although total receipts and returns processed were above 2001 values, the receipts per return were down. Thus, we expect total receipts to fall off sharply in the last two months of FY 2002. Collections in the next two months will shed more light on FY 2003 revenue and the FY 2004 forecast. |
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Wisconsin |
Our forecasting methodology does not produce estimates of monthly collections. |
In general, January-April collections were lower than forecasted. The weakness in collections is exaggerated by changes in withholding processing and refund processing. It is our view that FY 2002 income tax revenues are likely to be somewhat less than budgeted. |
The forecast relied on the Bureau of Economic Analysis' estimate of Wisconsin wage and salary income for 2001, which has recently been revised downward. This change explains most of the difference. However, estimates of capital gains and non-withheld income may also be too high. |
The recent negative collections experience is offset to some extent by recent improvements in the economic outlook. Sales tax collections are currently running ahead of forecasted amounts. No revenue re-estimate is anticipated at this time. |
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District of Columbia |
Total individual income tax collections for April 2002 were below the revenue forecast by $38.1 million or 28.6%. |
Individual income tax collections for Jan.-April 2002 were $38.5 million or 6.4% below the revenue forecast. |
The drop-off in capital gains, estimated payments, and increased refunds associated with the FY 2002 economic slowdown contributed to the deviation in actual collections from the forecast. |
Because April collections were below what was expected, the estimate for individual income tax revenue in FY 2003 was decreased. The revised revenue estimate contributed to a FY 2003-2004 budget that was tight compared to the last couple of years. |
