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State Fiscal Update June 2002

This report is a joint production of the National Conference of State Legislatures, Federation of Tax Administrators, National Association of State Budget Officers, and the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York at Albany.

This report is available in its entirety in portable document format.

Table of Contents

 

Individual Income Tax Update through April 2002

Table 5. Individual Income Tax Refunds: Total

Table 1. Individual Income Tax: Total Withholding

Table 6. Individual Income Tax Refunds: Number of Refunds

Table 2. Individual Income Tax: Total Estimated Payments

Table 7. Individual Income Tax Refunds: Average Refund Amounts

Table 3. Individual Income Tax: Total Payments with Returns

Table 8. Individual Income Tax Information by State

Table 4. Individual Income Tax: Total Collections

Appendix A


Individual Income Tax Update through April 2002

A May survey of state departments of revenue showed that 2002 individual income tax receipts through the end of April were off significantly from comparable periods in 2001. The National Conference of State Legislatures, Federation of Tax Administrators, National Association of State Budget Officers, and Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York at Albany conducted the survey cooperatively.

Additionally, at least 40 states reported that total individual income tax collections for January through April 2002 were below forecasted levels. As a result, fiscal year (FY) 2003 revenue forecasts are likely to be revised in many states. Because of state balanced budget requirements, any significant change in expected revenues likely would affect spending plans for the new fiscal year.

This survey follows four other state fiscal surveys conducted by NCSL since the start of the fiscal year that have chronicled the fiscal problems that nearly all states have had to confront.

The highlights of the May survey include the following:

  • Total individual income tax collections in January through April 2002 were 14 percent or about $14.7 billion below the level of a year ago. In April alone, when many states receive the bulk of their balance due or final payments, collections fell by 21.3 percent, or $8.6 billion. Income tax receipts in the first four months of 2002 were greater than receipts in 2001 in only six states.
  • Withholding tax collections, influenced by the recent drop in employment and probably by a decline in stock option income, were off by more than 3 percent during the first four months of the year. They declined by 0.2 percent in April, compared with April of last year.
  • Final payments made with individual income tax returns were down by 26.3 percent through April, and 28.7 percent in the month of April alone. Payments with returns in January through April 2002 exceeded 2001 receipts in only seven states. In three cases-Vermont, Pennsylvania and West Virginia-much of the excess was attributed to speedier processing of payments received in April 2002. Hawaii reported that much of its growth was due to extraordinary, non-recurring payments.
  • Estimated payments received in the first four months of 2002, generally considered to be a harbinger of expected receipts in the year ahead, were running nearly 27 percent behind the same period in 2001. Receipts in April 2002 for the second quarter installment decreased 24.3 percent from a year earlier. Only three states-Arizona, Vermont and West Virginia-showed any improvement from 2001 on this measure.
  • Meanwhile, the dollar amount of individual income tax refunds processed by states increased by nearly 14 percent during the 2002 processing season. [It increased by 24.8 percent in April alone, but one-month figures in this area carry little meaning.] While the number of refund returns processed has increased only 3.3 percent in January through April 2002, the average refund amount has increased by 10.3 percent-to $457.81. In total, states have paid out about $2.5 billion more in refunds through April 2002 than through the same period in 2001.
  • Of the states that compared collections with budgeted amounts, only two states reported that January through April collections were on or above the estimated amounts contained in the official state revenue forecast. Georgia reported collections about $60 million or 2.2 percent above expectations. West Virginia reported collections were $22.2 million or 5.8 percent above the estimate, but indicated that accelerated tax processing accounted for some significant portion of the performance.
  • All of the other states reported collections below budgeted targets, with 12 states reporting January through April collections were below budgeted forecast by more than 10 percent.
  • In discussing causes of the revenue drop-off, nearly every state noted that it would not be able to pinpoint the precise causes until substantially later this year when all returns are processed and available for analysis. They noted, however, that the decline would likely be attributable to substantially lower amounts of income not subject to withholding, such as capital gains, interest and dividends. A number of states also noted the decline in stock options and employee bonus compensation as a contributor to the decline. Several noted that the increased refunds were most likely attributable to greater than anticipated short-term layoffs, reduced hours and other factors that lowered wage and salary income. Finally, states noted that receipts from estimated tax payments are likely to decline as taxpayers adjust their estimated payments to a lower earnings forecast.


Table 1. Individual Income Tax: Total Withholding
($ millions)

State

April 2001

April 2002

Percent Change

Jan.-April 2001

Jan.-April 2002

Percent Change

Alabama

$125.6

$128.9

2.6%

$607.7

$629.6

3.6%

Arizona

179.7

185.1

3.0%

803.8

772.7

-3.9%

Arkansas

125.8

124.4

-1.1%

483.8

491.1

1.5%

California

1,989.0

1,920.0

-3.5%

9,494.0

8,642.0

-9.0%

Colorado

239.4

243.4

1.7%

1,077.0

1,018.6

-5.4%

Connecticut

228.5

233.5

2.2%

1,097.1

1,052.4

-4.1%

Delaware

51.0

60.6

18.8%

226

239.2

5.8%

Georgia

536.8

529.1

-1.4%

2186.9

2217.1

1.4%

Hawaii

86.5

88.8

2.7%

356.2

352.5

-1.0%

Idaho

67.2

60.4

-10.1%

279.3

246.3

-11.8%

Illinois

536.7

502.0

-6.5%

2,269.0

2,205.0

-2.8%

Indiana

355.6

356.9

2.5%

1,391.9

1,359.8

-2.3%

Iowa

126.8

130.0

2.5%

612.5

639.0

4.3%

Kansas

125.9

129.6

2.9%

512.3

527.0

2.9%

Kentucky

207.8

211.1

1.6%

851.0

861.3

1.2%

Louisiana

101.4

93.4

-7.9%

381.0

370.7

-2.7%

Maine

65.7

75.5

14.9%

302.8

308.7

2.0%

Maryland

389.5

390.1

0.2%

2,252.0

2,275.5

1.0%

Massachusetts

578

538.0

-6.9%

2,724.5

2,412.5

-11.5%

Michigan

567.3

513.1

-9.6%

2,358.9

2,165.3

-8.2%

Minnesota

360.1

365.5

1.5%

1,631.6

1,601.3

-1.9%

Mississippi

98.3

94.2

-4.2%

356.0

351.3

-1.3%

Missouri

237.5

245.9

3.5%

1,088.2

1,132.8

4.1%

Montana

N/A

N/A

N/A

321.8

331.1

2.9%

Nebraska

42.9

48.4

12.8%

312.1

318.5

2.1%

New Jersey

393.5

393.0

-0.1%

1,959.4

1,941.0

-0.9%

New Mexico

60.0

62.0

3.3%

276.0

269.0

-2.5%

New York

1,534.1

1,605.3

4.6%

8,557.0

7,870.2

-8.0%

North Carolina

563.0

559.0

-0.7%

2,327.0

2,383.0

2.4%

North Dakota

17.4

16.6

-4.6%

58.3

58.9

1.0%

Ohio

537.9

568.1

5.6%

2,354.5

2,356.0

0.1%

Oklahoma

159.5

182.2

14.2%

546.8

726.6

32.9%

Oregon

280.2

299.8

7.0%

1,250.1

1,217.0

-2.7%

Pennsylvania

458.1

435.3

-5.0%

1,939.1

1,918.4

-1.1%

Rhode Island

51.3

54.9

7.0%

238.9

232.9

-2.5%

South Carolina

218.7

223.0

1.9%

2,226.3

2,248.5

1.0%

Utah

160.7

157.3

-2.1%

557.9

550.2

-1.4%

Vermont

28.7

29.3

2.3%

113.8

121.1

6.4%

Virginia

524.7

534.9

1.9%

2,183.8

2,228.3

2.0%

West Virginia

64.5

72.1

11.8%

284.5

287.6

1.1%

Wisconsin

501.9

499.1

-0.6%

1,784.9

1,725.4

-3.3%

District of Columbia

81.0

67.0

-17.3%

263.0

281.0

6.8%

Total

$13,058.2

$13,026.8

-0.2%

$60,898.8

$58,936.5

-3.2%

N/A - Not applicable.

Source: Survey of state departments of revenue, May 2002.


Table 2. Individual Income Tax: Total Estimated Payments
($ millions)

State

April 2001

April 2002

Percent Change

Jan.-April 2001

Jan.-April 2002

Percent Change

Alabama

$9.4

$20.5

118.1%

$79.9

$79.6

-0.4%

Arizona

28.2

37.5

33.0%

132.1

132.4

0.2%

Arkansas

18

16.2

-9.7%

93.6

85.8

-8.4%

California

1,281.0

945

-26.2%

5,631.0

3,770.0

-33.0%

Colorado

213.5

130.2

-39.0%

411.4

268.1

-34.8%

Connecticut

113.1

90.5

-20.0%

433.5

281.8

-35.0%

Delaware

12.8

13.1

2.3%

39.9

38.8

-2.6%

Georgia

18

55.8

210.9%

434.4

351

-19.2%

Hawaii

45.8

40.1

-12.3%

101.2

97.3

-3.8%

Idaho

43.1

36.3

-15.8%

86.2

77.5

-10.1%

Illinois

159.7

118.6

-25.7%

497.8

396.8

-20.3%

Indiana

106.6

111.4

4.5%

275.7

275.1

-0.2%

Iowa

29.9

23.3

-22.1%

140.1

111.4

-20.5%

Kansas

58.8

45.8

-22.1%

158

136.4

-13.7%

Kentucky

90.5

82.6

-8.7%

209.3

181.8

-13.2%

Louisiana

41.5

32.6

-21.5%

113.7

112.2

-1.4%

Maine

32.6

26.3

-19.4%

120.6

85.4

-29.2%

Maryland

414.6

308.8

-25.5%

823.9

663.9

-19.4%

Massachusetts

186

138

-25.8%

931.2

613.4

-34.1%

Michigan

113.8

88.2

-22.5%

359.6

282.3

-21.5%

Minnesota

230.4

109.5

-52.5%

706.8

482.7

-31.7%

Mississippi

44.3

45.1

1.6%

82.9

81

-2.2%

Missouri

115.4

93.5

-19.0%

359.3

268.9

-25.2%

Montana

N/A

N/A

N/A

124.7

107.9

-13.5%

Nebraska

34.1

30.6

-10.3%

94.3

79.3

-15.9%

New Jersey

203.3

155

-23.8%

945.7

668

-29.4%

New Mexico

40

38

-5.0%

100

95

-5.0%

New York

2,200.7

1,414.5

-35.7%

4,256.8

2,670.4

-37.3%

North Carolina

168

132

-21.4%

515

429

-16.7%

North Dakota

12.1

10

-17.4%

25

22.3

-10.8%

Ohio

189.4

170.5

-10.0%

755.3

655.6

-13.2%

Oklahoma

115.9

100.9

-12.9%

296.5

190.1

-35.9%

Oregon

165.8

183

10.4%

418.4

393.7

-5.9%

Pennsylvania

156.9

133.8

-14.7%

508.4

422.1

-17.0%

Rhode Island

24.1

20.4

-15.4%

86.1

67.2

-22.0%

South Carolina

39.4

19.6

-50.3%

253.5

221.2

-12.7%

Utah

N/R

N/R

N/R

N/R

N/R

N/R

Vermont

3

12.2

313.4%

32

33.5

4.7%

Virginia

82.1

102

24.2%

443.9

400.2

-9.8%

West Virginia

24.7

24.7

0.0%

71.8

74

3.1%

Wisconsin

200.2

188.9

-5.6%

521.6

429.1

-17.7%

District of Columbia

28

14

-50.0%

93

78

-16.1%

Total

$7,094.6

$5,359.0

-24.5%

$21,764.2

$15,910.3

-26.9%

N/A - Not applicable.

N/R - No response.

Source: Survey of state departments of revenue, May 2002.


Table 3. Individual Income Tax: Total Payments with Returns
($ millions)

State

April 2001

April 2002

Percent Change

Jan.-April 2001

Jan.-April 2002

Percent Change

Alabama

$100.6

$66.9

-33.5%

$135.5

$92.2

-32.0%

Arizona

310

265.7

-14.3%

339.3

299.8

-11.6%

Arkansas

37.1

39.1

5.6%

62.2

62.7

0.7%

California

4,860.0

2,745.0

-43.5%

5,136.0

2,954.0

-42.5%

Colorado

110.3

114.1

3.4%

188.7

176.3

-6.6%

Connecticut

655.7

410.3

-37.4%

716.2

468.9

-34.5%

Delaware

32.3

30.5

-5.6%

40.7

38.4

-5.7%

Georgia

73.8

69.7

-5.5%

121.3

127.5

5.1%

Hawaii

40.5

61.1

51.0%

51.6

77.7

50.7%

Idaho

193.3

124.1

-35.8%

219.7

144

-34.5%

Illinois

509.6

418.9

-17.8%

590.1

492.6

-16.5%

Indiana

194.1

170.9

-12.0%

258.3

228.8

-11.4%

Iowa

100

71.5

-28.5%

141

101.8

-27.8%

Kansas

126.7

126.1

-0.5%

175.5

170.6

-2.8%

Kentucky

148.7

136.3

-8.3%

173.6

168.2

16.6%

Louisiana

94.8

69.8

-26.4%

121.7

90.3

-25.8%

Maine

154.2

114.1

-26.0%

170.1

131.2

-22.8%

Maryland

415.1

342.4

-17.5%

483.5

408.1

-15.6%

Massachusetts

584

365

-37.5%

640.8

428.7

-33.1%

Michigan

496.9

361.7

-27.2%

560.6

419.9

-25.1%

Minnesota

232

173

-25.4%

306.6

241

-21.4%

Mississippi

31

9.8

-68.3%

45.9

22.1

-51.9%

Missouri

408.2

326.4

-20.0%

473.7

382.6

-19.2%

Montana

N/A

N/A

N/A

86.6

64.4

-25.6%

Nebraska

130.9

104

-20.6%

170

137.4

-19.2%

New Jersey

1,068.7

793

-25.8%

1,141.5

879

-23.0%

New Mexico

108

86

-20.4%

124

103

-16.9%

New York

1,519.7

1,020.3

-32.9%

1,652.0

1,164.1

-29.5%

North Carolina

803

600

-25.3%

788

710

-9.9%

North Dakota

30.9

23.8

-23.0%

40.3

32.5

-19.4%

Ohio

836.4

673.5

-19.5%

888.9

694.1

-21.9%

Oklahoma

142

141.2

-0.6%

178.1

177.2

-0.5%

Oregon

275.3

225.1

-18.2%

326.6

270.9

-17.1%

Pennsylvania

335.1

446.6

33.3%

407.3

517.5

27.1%

Rhode Island

125.2

89.9

-28.2%

134.9

100.1

-25.8%

South Carolina

79.1

70.6

-10.8%

161.8

153.8

-5.0%

Utah

308.6

228

-26.1%

357.8

273.2

-23.6%

Vermont

9.1

43.9

381.0%

14.3

48.6

239.0%

Virginia

188.2

160.2

-14.9%

222.2

178.6

-19.6%

West Virginia

42.3

46.5

9.9%

54.9

58.5

6.6%

Wisconsin

186.9

156.3

-16.4%

214.1

177.1

-17.3%

District of Columbia

79

49

-38.0%

88

58

-34.1%

Total

$16,177.3

$11,570.3

-28.5%

$18,203.9

$13,525.4

-25.7%

N/A - Not applicable.

Source: Survey of state departments of revenue, May 2002.


Table 4. Individual Income Tax: Total Collections
($ millions)

State

April 2001

April 2002

Percent Change

Jan.-April 2001

Jan.-April 2002

Percent Change

Alabama

$235.6

$216.3

-8.2%

$823.1

$801.4

-2.6%

Arizona

517.9

488.3

-5.7%

1,275.2

1,204.9

-5.5%

Arkansas

180.8

179.7

-0.6%

639.7

639.6

0.0%

California

12,197.0

7,433.0

-39.1%

24,627.0

17,518.0

-28.9%

Colorado

563.2

487.7

-13.4%

1,677.1

1,463.0

-12.8%

Connecticut

997.3

734.3

-26.4%

2,246.8

1,803.1

-19.7%

Delaware

96.1

104.2

8.4%

306.6

316.4

3.2%

Georgia

628.5

654.6

4.2%

2,742.5

2,695.6

-1.7%

Hawaii

172.8

190.1

10.0%

509

527.6

3.7%

Idaho

303.6

220.8

-27.3%

585.2

467.8

-20.1%

Illinois

1,206.0

1,039.5

-13.8%

3,356.9

3,094.4

-7.8%

Indiana

656.3

639.2

-2.6%

1,925.9

1,863.7

-3.2%

Iowa

256.7

224.8

-12.4%

893.5

852.2

-4.6%

Kansas

311.4

301.5

-3.2%

845.8

834

-1.4%

Kentucky

447

430

-3.8%

1,233.9

1,211.3

-1.8%

Louisiana

237.7

195.8

-17.6%

616.4

573.1

-7.0%

Maine

252.5

215.9

-14.5%

593.6

525.4

-11.5%

Maryland

1,219.2

1,041.3

-14.6%

3,559.4

3,347.5

-6.0%

Massachusetts

1,348.0

1,041.0

-22.8%

4,296.5

3,454.6

-19.6%

Michigan

1,178.0

963

-18.3%

3,279.1

2,867.5

-12.6%

Minnesota

822.5

648

-21.2%

2,645.0

2,325.0

-12.1%

Mississippi

173.6

149.1

-14.1%

484.8

454.4

-6.3%

Missouri

828.5

737.3

-11.0%

1,989.0

1856

-6.7%

Montana

N/A

N/A

N/A

533.1

503.4

-5.6%

Nebraska

207.9

183

-12.0%

576.4

535.2

-7.1%

New Jersey

1,665.5

1,341.0

-19.5%

4,046.6

3,488.0

-13.8%

New Mexico

208

186

-10.6%

500

467

-6.6%

New York

5,254.5

4,040.1

-23.1%

14,465.8

11,704.7

-19.1%

North Carolina

1,534.0

1,291.0

-15.8%

3,630.0

3,522.0

-3.0%

North Dakota

60.4

50.4

-16.6%

123.6

113.7

-8.0%

Ohio

1,563.7

1,412.1

-9.7%

3,998.7

3,705.7

-7.3%

Oklahoma

417.4

424.3

1.7%

1,021.4

1,093.9

7.1%

Oregon

721.2

707.9

-1.8%

1,995.1

1,881.6

-5.7%

Pennsylvania

950.1

1,015.7

6.9%

2,854.8

2,858.0

0.1%

Rhode Island

200.6

165.2

-17.6%

459.9

400.2

-13.0%

South Carolina

337.3

313.1

-7.2%

2,641.7

2,623.5

-0.7%

Utah

469.2

385.3

-17.9%

915.7

823.4

-10.1%

Vermont

40.8

85.5

109.8%

160.1

203.2

26.9%

Virginia

795

797.1

0.3%

2,849.9

2,807.7

-1.5%

West Virginia

131.5

143.3

9.0%

411.2

420.1

2.2%

Wisconsin

889

844.3

-5.0%

2,520.6

2,331.6

-7.5%

District of Columbia

188

130

-30.9%

444

417

-6.1%

Total

$40,464.3

$31,850.7

-21.3%

$105,300.6

$90,596.4

-14.0%

N/A - Not applicable.

Source: Survey of state departments of revenue, May 2002.


Table 5. Individual Income Tax Refunds: Total
($ millions)

State

April 2001

April 2002

Percent Change

Jan.-April 2001

Jan.-April 2002

Percent Change

Alabama

$55.4

$41.1

-25.8%

$119.2

$93.6

-21.5%

Arizona

204.1

243

19.1%

579.1

594

2.6%

Arkansas

52

55.5

6.7%

155.5

187.7

20.7%

California

1,010.0

1,314.0

30.1%

3,248.0

4,018.0

23.7%

Colorado

120

118.9

-0.9%

362.5

347

-4.3%

Connecticut

85.2

185.3

117.4%

325.4

388.9

19.5%

Delaware

24

32.4

34.8%

73.5

81.9

11.4%

Georgia

288.8

316.2

9.5%

691.6

821

18.7%

Hawaii

61.3

68.3

11.5%

131.7

139.5

5.9%

Idaho

N/R

N/R

N/R

104

107.9

3.8%

Illinois

123.9

151.1

22.0%

407.1

429.3

5.5%

Indiana

56.7

83

46.4%

261.8

276.5

5.6%

Iowa

90.8

107.6

18.5%

258.8

312

20.6%

Kansas

43.7

63.7

45.8%

170.8

217.8

27.5%

Kentucky

81.5

60.2

-26.2%

278.3

290.2

4.3%

Louisiana

30.3

41.1

35.6%

116.9

131.1

12.1%

Maine

28.4

36.9

29.9%

132.4

151.7

14.6%

Maryland

217.3

252.3

16.1%

854.2

984.1

15.2%

Massachusetts

N/R

N/R

N/R

N/R

N/R

N/R

Michigan

303.2

375.8

23.9%

973.2

1,039.6

6.8%

Minnesota

178.3

173.4

-2.7%

590.1

551.8

-6.5%

Mississippi

43.7

44.4

1.8%

18.3

16.3

-11.1%

Missouri

154.8

226.1

46.1%

449

570.6

27.1%

Montana

N/R

N/R

N/R

77.8

105.8

36.0%

Nebraska

33.9

50.2

48.1%

134.1

161.3

20.3%

New Jersey

215.7

218.3

1.2%

526.4

541.6

2.9%

New Mexico

51

45

-11.8%

120

151

25.8%

New York

674.6

1,094.1

62.2%

1,705.0

2,133.6

25.1%

North Carolina

229

237

3.5%

866

889

2.7%

North Dakota

8.7

7.4

-14.9%

19.3

21.6

11.9%

Ohio

221.4

184.7

-16.6%

743.2

608.6

-18.1%

Oklahoma

64

79

23.4%

251.6

272.7

8.4%

Oregon

164.7

177.2

7.6%

375.5

447.8

19.2%

Pennsylvania

N/R

N/R

N/R

174.1

198.8

14.2%

Rhode Island

34.7

45.7

31.7%

92.6

108.7

17.4%

South Carolina

146.3

164

12.2%

518.8

589

13.5%

Utah

86.1

94.8

10.1%

214.2

266.3

24.4%

Vermont

N/R

N/R

N/R

N/R

N/R

N/R

Virginia

178.2

283.1

58.9%

499.5

733.4

46.8%

West Virginia

13.4

16

19.4%

58.8

65.9

12.1%

Wisconsin

245.7

270.2

10.0%

811.1

911.7

12.4%

District of Columbia

24

32

33.3%

58.8

82

39.4%

Total

$5,644.7

$6,989.2

23.8%

$17,548.3

$20,039.3

14.2%

N/R - No response.

N/A - Not applicable.

Source: Survey of state departments of revenue, May 2002.


Table 6. Individual Income Tax Refunds: Number of Refunds
(thousands)

State

April 2001

April 2002

Percent Change

Jan.-April 2001

Jan.-April 2002

Percent Change

Alabama

160.4

186.3

16.1%

815.6

642.4

-21.2%

Arizona

284.7

346.8

21.8%

1,005.1

1,073.3

6.8%

Arkansas

161.4

151

-6.5%

572.2

610.9

6.8%

California

N/R

N/R

N/R

N/R

N/R

N/R

Colorado

463

484.3

4.6%

1,485.0

1,470.9

-0.9%

Connecticut

182.8

391.6

114.2%

729

862.7

18.3%

Delaware

65.2

76.4

17.0%

212.8

222.5

4.6%

Georgia

680

690

1.5%

1,750.0

1,870.0

6.9%

Hawaii

124.7

131.4

5.4%

291.8

293.9

0.7%

Idaho

N/R