State

Tax/Revenue

Budget/Expenditure

Alabama

General fund and education fund collections are within 1 percent of target at present and are expected to remain on target throughout FY 1995.

Medicaid and corrections are likely to require relatively small supplemental appropriations--less than 1 percent of the general fund. But the settlement of lawsuits regarding foster care and in-home services could throw the budget out of balance in FY 1995.

Alaska

Revenue collections are on target, with the revenue estimate having been revised upward by 6 percent or $106.6 million.

Supplemental appropriations of $4 million for fire suppression and $1.2 million for disaster relief have been made. Stable fiscal conditions are expected to continue.

Arizona

General fund collections for the first five months of FY 1996 are running $131.7 million (8 percent) above forecast for the period. The strength of Arizona’s economy is reflected in higher than expected corporate income tax collections followed by individual income and sales tax receipts. Arizona’s official general fund revenue forecast will be increased by $194.7 million (4.5 percent) on January 10th.

With the exception of a $10 million supplemental needed to meet the cost of new state charter schools (0.5 percent over budget) Arizona’s expenditures are on target and the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year is excellent.

Arkansas

General fund revenue collections through November are $48.3 million or 9.8 percent above the budgeted forecast. Revenues were projected to increase by 2 percent or $50 million over the previous fiscal year. Although no revision to the revenue forecast is expected because of uncertainty over federal funds coming to the state. Revenues are expected to continue performing well as the state’s economy hits a ‘soft landing’.

There will not be a legislative session in 1996. AFDC spending is expected to be down from budgeted levels and no supplemental appropriations are expected from other programs as caseloads are down or on target as budgeted.

California

General fund revenue collections are $675 million or 3 percent above the forecast through November. The official revenue forecast for the remainder of the fiscal year has been increased by $1.3 billion or 3 percent.

Six-hundred million or half of the additional revenue above forecast will automatically go to K-12 education and community colleges. Unanticipated costs in welfare will also require about $300 million in supplemental appropriations. A modest surplus of $300 million is projected from the additional revenues in the revised forecast.

State

Tax/Revenue

Budget/Expenditure

Colorado

General fund revenue collections are above estimate through the first five months of the fiscal year. The official revenue forecast was increased by $84 million or 2 percent to reflect stronger than anticipated revenue collections in sales and personal income taxes. The state also benefits from a beginning reserve for FY 1996 that was $144 million more than projected when the budget was passed.

The FY 1996 budget is in excellent shape with revenues above forecast and expenditures on target. Some supplemental appropriations are expected for AFDC and Medicaid but there are offsetting decreases in child welfare and corrections. Overall expenditures are below target so far this fiscal year.

Connecticut

General fund revenue collections are coming in on target. Revenues are expected to end above the forecasted level at the close of the fiscal year, although two major fiscal issues, state issued bonds and hospital finance, could affect any potential revenue surplus. There has been no formal revision of the FY 1995 revenue estimate.

Some program areas have exceeded budgeted levels, but only slightly. At this time, the state is planning $5.6 million in deficiency appropriations, primarily for administrative items, such as rent for state office buildings and workers comp for state employees. No planned expenditures have been reduced from the budgeted level. A surplus of $16 million in FY 1995 is expected, in addition to a $19.6 million surplus carried over from FY 1994 .

Delaware

Collections are running 8.5 percent ahead of last year’s total through the first five months of FY 1995. The new revenue estimate for the remainder of the fiscal year was increased by $69.3 million or 4.2 percent. Forecasted revenue growth for the remainder of the fiscal year is now 5.1 percent. The strongest revenue performers are the corporate income tax, bank tax and corporate franchise tax. Various tax cut proposals are expected to be introduced at the start of the new session, including cuts in the personal income tax and the gross receipts tax.

No program expenditures are above budgeted levels and no reductions have been made in program budgets so far this fiscal year. The state’s budget for the rest of FY 1995 is said to be in good shape.

District of
Columbia

Not reporting.

Not reporting.

Florida

General fund revenue collections are $41.9 million or less than 1 percent above forecast through November. Sales taxes and corporate income taxes are performing well and driving collections slightly above the budgeted estimate. The official revenue estimate for the remainder of the fiscal year was increased by $121 million or 0.8 percent.

All program expenditures are on target or below estimate. The corrections program will revert $31 million back into the general fund and the AFDC program will also revert monies back into the general fund due to decreased caseloads. Revenues and expenditures are on target and are expected to remain so through the end of the fiscal year.

Georgia

General fund revenue collections for FY 1996 are on target. There has been no change in the official revenue forecast. Georgia is enjoying a healthy surplus and needs only 5.3 percent growth in revenue collections to meet budgeted expenses. Georgia’s fiscal condition is good for now absent any federal budget and tax policy change. Not expecting an economic downturn nor rapid growth but collections are sufficient to meet current budgetary needs.

All program expenditures are right on budget and the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year is excellent.

State

Tax/Revenue

Budget/Expenditure

Hawaii

General fund revenue collections through November are below forecast. The revenue forecast for FY 1996 was decreased by $94.3 million or by 3.4 percent. General excise tax collections are not meeting expectations as tourism related travel continues a tailspin for the second year in a row. The last quarter of FY 1995 saw an unexpected decrease in revenue of $80.3 million. Revenue projections for FY 1997 have already been reduced from earlier estimates given the performance of the state’s economy.

The Governor has enacted holdbacks on appropriations for agencies totalling $130 million for FY 1996. Most state agencies have been affected by the budget restrictions with some agencies being required to implement double digit holdbacks. State programs and services are expected to be cut further as a result of a poor budget situation and the 1996 Legislature is expected to deal with short term fiscal problems before tackling the FY 1997 budget.

Idaho

Revenue collections through November are 2 percent below estimate as sales tax and personal income tax collections are sluggish. The official revenue forecast was decreased by $27 million or 2 percent for the remainder of the fiscal year. No further declines in revenues are expected through the end of the fiscal year.

State agencies have been asked to implement a 2 percent holdback on their FY 1996 appropriations because of decreased revenue collections. Some supplemental appropriations will be required for county incarceration costs and fire suppression expenditures.

Illinois

General fund revenue collections are on target through November and are projected to remain on target for the remainder of the fiscal year. The official fiscal year forecast was increased by one-half of a percent to reflect some better than expected performance in revenues. The state’s budget is expected to be in decent shape at the end of the fiscal year.

Not available.

Indiana

Total revenue collections through October are above target by $148.8 million or 7.4 percent. Both corporate and individual income tax collections have been strong performers. The official FY 1995 general fund revenue estimate was increased by $243.1 million or 4.5 percent above the original forecast.

All program expenditures have been on target in FY 1995 and there have been no budget overruns. There have also been no reductions in appropriations. However, the executive branch reduced expenditures. All state agencies have reversion targets. The legislature has asked for some reversions from dedicated funds as well.

Iowa

General fund revenue collections are running above the forecast level by $40 million to $80 million or 1 percent to 2 percent through the first five months of the fiscal year. The official revenue forecast was revised to show an additional $32 million in expected revenue by the end of the fiscal year. Anticipated revenue growth of 3.2 percent has now been increased to 4 percent through the remainder of the fiscal year.

All program expenditures are right on budget and the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year is excellent.

State

Tax/Revenue

Budget/Expenditure

Kansas

General fund revenue collections for FY 1996 are on target. The official revenue forecast has been lowered by $27.3 million (less than 1 percent) primarily to adjust for personal income tax returns.

The state is in good shape for now. May need to make some adjustments in budget for K-12 state aid on account of new federal RESPA rules which impact the timing of property tax payments but this $30 million cash flow dilemna is manageable. Difficulty may come in budgeting for FY 1997 as Kansas expects to spend down its balance over statutory reserves. All this will be complicated by possible federal budget and tax policy changes.

Kentucky

General fund revenues through the end of October are about 7 percent above FY 1994, which is slightly ahead of estimate. The Revenue Cabinet predicts that revenues for FY 1995 will exceed the estimate but has not revised the official estimate.

The state has lost three lawsuits involving the taxation of federal retirees, the coal severance tax, and the sales tax that could require tax refunds of about $50 million. Also, the Medicaid director has predicted a $100 million shortfall in FY 1995, although an official supplemental request has not been submitted.

Louisiana

General fund revenue collections are on target through November and are expected to remain on target through the remainder of FY 1996. Personal, corporate and sales tax collections are better than expected and are forecasted to remain on target. The official fiscal year revenue estimate remains unchanged.

Election expenses are over budget by $6 million while Medicaid expenditures could be above budgeted levels if emergency rules have not had the desired effect of holding down costs.

Maine

Revenues through the end of November were 1.1 percent above target. The official estimate has not been revised. The economy is generally stable although revenue growth remains slow, in the 3 percent range.

A supplemental request is likely. However, due to the change in administration, the Legislature may not see the request until the end of January.

Maryland

Revenues through the first five months are 1.8 percent ($40 million) below estimate. As a result, the official estimate has been revised downward by 1.5 percent ($92 million) for FY 1996. Much of the decline in revenues is being attributed to the activities in Washington, D.C. on the federal budget. Although furloughed federal employees eventually will be paid, consumer confidence is down and is reflected in sales tax collections. There also is the effect of lost federal employment. The state estimates that it has lost 10,000 federal jobs during the past four years and projects that is will lose an additional 20,000 jobs in the next four years.

FY 1996 expenditures essentially are on target. The fiscal impact of minor expenditure overruns and declines in revenues will be offset somewhat by reversions and a budget surplus. The net effect will be a $50 million shortfall that the governor will have to address to avoid a year-end deficit.

State

Tax/Revenue

Budget/Expenditure

Massachusetts

Revenue collections through November for the state’s general, highway, and local fund (combined forecast) are running $62 million or 1.5 percent below the midpoint of the target budget range for FY 1995. The official combined revenue forecast was revised downward by $75 million or 0.67 percent in September to reflect lower levels of income tax withholding. State revenue collections for the fiscal year are expected to coast along the bottom of the forecast target range. The state will revisit its official revenue forecast in March.

Expenditures for juvenile offender services are exceeding budgeted levels by 10.6 percent or $1.7 million to date in part due to changes in sentencing laws which have resulted in more referrals for youth services. Because lawmakers ruled out the possibility of closing and consolidating state schools for the developmentally disabled as a cost saving measure, expenditures are exceeding budgeted levels by an estimated $3.4 million or 0.56 percent. The state’s fiscal condition is tenuous. The fixed cost of education reforms, conversion to pay-as-you-go for pensions, and debt service on capital borrowing will make it difficult to reconcile the budget for FY 1996. The state is now looking for ways to reduce overall spending.

Michigan

Revenues for the first two months of FY 1996 are on target and are expected to remain on target through the end of the fiscal year.

Expenditures are on target. The general fund budget is balanced. Although the state is not expected to end the fiscal year with a surplus as in past years, the budget remains in good condition.

Minnesota

Revenues for the first five months of FY 1995 are on target. In November, the official forecast for the FY 1994/95 biennium was revised upward by $135 million (0.8 percent).

Expenditures are forecast to be on target for FY 1995, even in traditionally problematic programs like Medicaid. In 1993, the legislature imposed spending caps that will require cuts of about $500 million below current services in the 1996/97 biennium.

Mississippi

General fund revenue collections are right on target, coming in at a fraction (.07 percent) above the budgeted amount during the first five months of the fiscal year. Although significanlty less than the 10 percent average increase in revenues over the past three years, revenue growth for FY 1996 is still good at 2.4 percent. Indications are that revenues for the entire fiscal year will remain on target.

Expenditures are likely to be $13.8 million over budget or .5%. Corrections accounts for most of the overrun due to an additional $9.5 million reimbursement to local jails. In addition, $4.1 million is needed to complete the second phase of a rural fire truck program.

Mississippi has not formally taken action in anticipation of federal policy changes. Leadership is concerned, however, and has been meeting with members of congress to stay abreast of any developments. They hope block grant money will continue to go through the legislative appropriations process and not go directly to the executive. The legislature is trying to keep up with the issues and invited NCSL staff (Chris Zimmerman) to speak last year. Legislative staff in Mississippi do not anticipate any tax increases to deal with reduced federal funds. The governor is still talking about an income tax reduction.

Missouri

General fund revenue collections for FY 1996 are above forecast by $136 million (7.0%) through the end of November. A revised concensus revenue estimate is possible come January. Missouri is currently outperforming the national economy but the state tends to experience a lag from national trends.

Supplemental requirements are minimal this year. Residential treatment costs are 16.6 percent or $5 million over budget. Adoption subsidy program costs are 19 percent or $3 million over budget.

State

Tax/Revenue

Budget/Expenditure

Montana

General fund revenue collections are on target for the first half of the fiscalyear, and no revision of the revenue estimate is planned.

Normal supplemental appropriations of approximately $20 million will likely be needed to cover costs associated with fire suppression and in the human services area, although conditions could change toward the end of the fiscal year.

Nebraska

General fund revenue collections for FY 1996 are below forecast by $13.4 million (1.9 percent) through the end of November. Original estimates could be off by as much as $18 million by the year’s end (plus or minus 1 percent). The risk of lower than expected collections is seen as greater than Nebraska’s chance for improved collections in what remains of FY 1996. Based on performance to date, the official revenue estimate for FY 1996 has been lowered by $4.3 million (0.2 percent).

Expenditures have been on target but spending will exceed budget levels in FY 1997 due to unavoidable out-year costs. Balances are positive and cash flow will not be a problem. Nebraska has some flexibility in its current budget to absorb adversity short of any major change in federal budget and tax policy.

Nevada

General fund revenues are currently $18 million or 1.5 percent over the budgeted level, with collections expected to be on target for the remainder of the fiscal year. The revenue estimate has not been revised.

Child welfare spending will exceed the budgeted level by $13.5 million (1 percent) due to caseload numbers plus the cost of placements. State budget conditions are expected to continue in good shape, but depend to some extent on federal actions.

New Hampshire

Revenues from state sources are expected to be about $18 million or 3 percent over the original budget forecast for FY 1995, but the balance forward from FY 1994 is between $20 million and $25 million lower than expected. If revenue collections continue at the present rate, the state will suffer a $20 million gap by the end of FY 1995.

AFDC and Medicaid are running about $18 million to $20 million ahead of budget for FY 1995--3 percent of state revenue collections. Medicaid reimbursements are likely to be $23 million less than expected in the budget. Cuts of 3.5 percent to 4 percent may be needed on expenditures other than education and aid to local governments.

New Jersey

General fund revenue collections through the first five months of FY 1996 are below forecast by $50 million or 1 percent. Revenues are expected to end the fiscal year below the budegeted forecast by $150 million or 1 percent. There has been no official revision to the general fund revenue estimate.

The only program area that may require supplemental appropriations during the fiscal year is the corrections program. An infusion of $30 - $ 50 million may be required to cover expenditures by the end of the fiscal year. All other agencies are operating under an 8 percent budget holdback initiated by the governor. Some agencies may end up spending only 92 percent of their original appropriations at the end of the fiscal year. A tight budget will likely draw down a budgeted $540 million surplus for the fiscal year.

State

Tax/Revenue

Budget/Expenditure

New Mexico

The FY 1995 general fund revenue estimate has been revised upward 2.7 percent from the original budgeted level, reflecting $72 million in increased collections.

Expenditures remain on target with no reductions or spending over budget anticipated.

New York

General fund revenue collections through eight months of the fiscal year (fiscal year began April 1) are on target with budgeted estimates. Revenues are expected to remain on target through the remainder of the fiscal year. All major taxes are reported to be on target.

Program expenditures will be on target through the end of the fiscal year although some spending reductions will be required. Spending in the current fiscal year will be reduced by $213 million. Agencies have been asked to reduce spending by $50 million, capital budget by $49 million and income maintenance is being reduced by $70 million. This reductions will help offset an increase in education aid for locals and tuition assistance of $140 million. The tightly controlled budget is doing well and will remain in balance through the end of the fiscal year.

North Carolina

Revenue collections are 2.1 percent ahead of projections through November. Revenues are expected to be $102 million or 1.2 percent above estimate at the end of the fiscal year. Strong performance in retail sales tax collections and estimated corporate payments are driving collections up. Employment growth continues to be about 3.5 percent. Substantial tax cuts have been proposed by elected officials for 1995.

There have been no spending overruns and no budget cuts in program spending this fiscal year. The state’s budget condition for the rest of FY 1995 is said to be very good.

North Dakota

Revenues for the first five months of the biennium are 4.8 percent ahead of target, due to collections for motor vehicle excise taxes (up 5 percent to 6 percent), individual and corporate income tax collections, and oil and gas production taxes. The general fund revenue estimate has not been revised.

Spending is on target, although flooding in the northeast-central part of the state may prompt consideration of a special session to review options for dealing with associated costs.

Ohio

General fund revenue collections are on target through five months of the fiscal year. Revenues are expected to remain on target through the end of the fiscal year.

Expenditures are stable and no programs are expected to exceed their budgeted level during the fiscal year.

State

Tax/Revenue

Budget/Expenditure

Oklahoma

General fund revenue collections are $6 million or 0.5 percent below the budgeted estimate through the first five months of the fiscal year. Revenues are expected to remain on target through the remainder of the fiscal year. Revenues should be sufficient to meet all obligations.

The only program to have exceeded its budgeted expenditure level is corrections. Expenditures are $2.3 million or 1.1 percent over budget because of prison overcrowding and the governor’s refusal to sign an emergency declaration which would allow for early release of prisoners. No budget difficulties are anticipated, other than in corrections, for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Oregon

General fund revenue collections for FY 1996 are $73 million (1.1%) above forecast. State lottery fund is a problem as collections are running $78 million (10%) below forecast and only saving fact is that the fund had a large carryfoward so state is only looking at an immediate 1 to 2 percent Lottery revenue shortfall. But the legislature balanced its K-12 budget with lottery revenues so action will be needed to reconcile the difference. This state adopts a biennial revenue forecast and to date, there has been no official change.

Watching spending for corrections and human services, especially foster care. Expect costs to exceed budgeted levels. Oregon faces some difficult budget choices as it is looking at a long term structural deficit. There is no public support for raising taxes now so we will have to make hard choices about programs next session.

Pennsylvania

General fund revenue collections are on target through five months of the fiscal year. Revenues are expected to remain on target through the remainder of the fiscal year.

It is anticipated that supplemental appropriations will total $105 million. Public welfare accounts for $49 million of the total, while education will require $35 million and county child welfare will need an additional $24 million. The supplemental appropriations will come out of budgetary reserves.

Puerto Rico

General fund revenue collections are $57.3 million or 4 percent above forecast through November. Revenues are expected to be above the budgeted estimate through the end of the fiscal year although no change in the official revenue estimate is expected.

All program expenditures are on track with budgeted levels. The budget is expected to be balanced at the end of the fiscal year although there is some uncertainty regarding impacts from the federal budget.

Rhode Island

General revenue collections are expected to be just over estimate for the fiscal year--less than 1 percent. The estimate has been increased by $4.3 million.

Mental health, retardation, hospitals, and human services may need supplemental appropriations of a total of $20 million to $30 million (around 2 percent of the general fund budget). Spending reductions in other programs may be needed to keep the budget in balance. These problems are small compared to those of recent years.

South Carolina

General fund revenue collections through the first five months of the fiscal year are 4 percent over the budgeted forecast. Sales and personal income tax collections are the primary factors in the strong performance of state revenues. The official fiscal year revenue estimate for the remainder of the fiscal year was increased by $47 million or 1.1 percent over the budgeted level.

A number of agencies are expected to seek supplemental appropriations from the Legislature during the second half of the fiscal year. The programs likely to seek additional revenues are juvenile justice, economic development and adult corrections. The additional revenues coming into the state treasury along with a $90 million carryforward from FY 1995 will more than cover any unexpected supplemental appropriations.

State

Tax/Revenue

Budget/Expenditure

South Dakota

General fund revenues are slightly below target for the first five months of the fiscal year. The expanded sales tax is not generating revenues as quickly as projected, possibly due to lower bank profits that rely on interest rates. A new revenue estimate will be adopted in February.

Spending is not expected to exceed the budgeted level. The theme for the year is to direct state resources to local property tax relief.

Tennessee

For the first three months of the fiscal year, general fund revenues are running ahead of the budgeted estimate by two percent ($24.2 million). This is primarily due to a large increase ($12.3 million) in the amount of inheritance tax collected. In addition, excise and gasoline tax collections are up.

Two areas of the budget are exceeding budgeted levels. The Tennessee Industrial Infrastructure Program is over by $11 million or 40% because the state, by providing business incentive packages, made commitments that are now coming due. Corrections also is over budget by about $20 million or 24 percent. State prisons are overcrowded and the state is leasing space from local jails. Overall, the budget condition for FY 1996 looks good. Growth is slower than the phenomenal rate experienced last year, but it is still reasonable.

Tennessee has not taken any official action in anticipation of federal policy changes; however, policymakers are trying to stay on top of any developments and have been utilizing information from NCSL and FFIS. Their plan is to wait until they know how federal block grants will impact the state and then deal with changes when faced with them.

Texas

Revenue collections through the first three months of the fiscal year are on target. (Fiscal year begins September 1.) The official revenue estimate is unchanged but revenues are expected to remain slightly above estimate through the end of the fiscal year.

All program expenditures are expected to remain within budgeted levels. Sufficient revenues are expected to be on hand to support the budget through the remainder of the fiscal year.

Utah

General fund revenue collections are above the budgeted forecast through the first five months of the fiscal year. Revenues are expected to be above target by $100 million or 3 percent at the end of the fiscal year. Stronger than expected collections in sales, personal and corporate income taxes are driving overall collections above target.

All program expenditures are on target and there is no consideration of supplemental appropriations for any of the programs.

Vermont

General fund revenues through the first five months of FY 1995 are on target, with full year collections also expected to meet target. Weak personal income tax collections have been offset by strong sales and other tax sources. Fiscal staff characterize Vermont’s economy as "fragile."

The Agency of Human Services is expected to request about $8 million in supplemental appropriations due to caseloads. The administration is expected to make offsetting reductions in other state expenditures, so the total supplemental request will not be known until January.

State

Tax/Revenue

Budget/Expenditure

Virginia

First quarter revenue collections were expected to come in at 6.1 percent growth. Actual collections are reported at 6.7 percent growth. No dollar figure is available. The estimates are changing, based on disappointing tax collection compliance efforts. If it were not for the compliance issue, revenues would be above the forecast by $140 million. The revised general fund revenue estimate decreased expected revenues for the remainder of FY 1995 by $45.7 million or 0.6%. The economy is expected to continue performing generally well for the rest of the fiscal year. The governor has proposed a tax cut.

The state is facing a $350 million shortfall, due to corrections needs and refunds of state taxes to federal pensioners. The corrections budget is expected to exceed budgeted levels by $75 million to $125 million. The state held a special session this fall to abolish parole. Other factors affecting the corrections budget include prison overcrowding, two new prisons coming on-line, and expedited construction of a minimum security work center. Medicaid expenditures are below forecast. Public school enrollment is not as great as anticipated. The state is self-insured and is experiencing some savings due to lower usage by state employees.

Washington

General fund revenue collections for FY 1996 are on target. There has been no change in the official revenue forecast.

Expenditure trend is down for most caseload programs including public schools so spending is on target with budget estimates. Healthy cash balance of $730 million but politics make it unlikely the state will spend up to the statutory lid (currently $300 million below the lid); tax policy debate has begun over how much relief can the state afford and still be in a position to cope with imponderable federal budget changes.

West Virginia

General fund revenues for the first five months of FY 1996 are on target, while highway fund revenues are 8 percent above estimate. A revision in the official FY 1996 estimate is unlikely.

Most general fund spending is on target. However, the Medicaid program received no appropriation increase for FY 1996. This level funding, combined with limits on DSH and other federal funding, has forced the agency to cut $200 million from the "current services" level. So far, these cuts have been made administratively.

Wisconsin

Revenues for the first five months of FY 1995 are on target. In November, the administration increased the official FY 1995 estimate by $70 million (1 percent).

Expenditures are on target, and no supplemental requests are anticipated. The Department of Administration has ordered all state departments to cut FY 1995 expenditures by 2.5 percent, a $28 million expenditure reduction.

Wyoming

General fund revenues were slightly below target for the first four months of the fiscal year at 1.6 percent below the budgeted level, primarily due to 2 percent lower-than-expected sales tax eollections. However, revenues for the full fiscal year are expected to be on target. The revenue estimate was revised upward by $7.3 million in October.

The governor has indicated no expectation of above-budget spending, and the state is in good fiscal shape. Since the educational system has been declared unconstitutional, a review of state aid must be done.