The Anti-Tax, Anti-Government Mood
Does it have enough steam to get through Election Day intact?
Updated Oct. 19, 2010
Voters face a wide array of anti-tax, anti-government initiatives on ballots this year. Topping many such lists are Amendments 60 and 61 and Proposition 101 in Colorado, a trio of tax-cutting initiatives that would tie up an estimated 99 percent of the state’s general fund in K-12 education spending and cut local government revenue by $3.1 billion annually by the time they are fully implemented. But consider also Questions 1 and 3 in Massachusetts, which would repeal the sales tax on alcohol and cut the state sales tax rate by more than half, a move that is estimated to cost $2.5 billion a year. Then there’s Initiative 1053 in Washington, which would re-instate the two-thirds threshold the Legislature must achieve in order to raise taxes. Prop. 22 in California, restricting the state’s ability to reallocate funds meant for transportation or local government. Prop. 23 in California, temporarily suspending the state’s strict air pollution control law. There are moves to restrict the legislature’s role in redistricting in both California and Florida. And the list goes on…
But do voters feel strongly enough about these issues to buck recent trends in initiative votes? The mere presence of an initiative on a statewide ballot is not a reliable indicator of popular support. Rather, because the vast majority of initiatives qualify for the ballot through the use of paid professional signature gatherers, it is more an indicator of the sponsors’ degree of organization and the depth of their financial resources.
Over the past five election cycles, there has been only one November election in which voters approved more than half of the initiatives on statewide ballots. That was in 2004, when voters approved 55.9 percent of the initiatives presented to them. In other years, voters reject the majority of initiative proposals on their ballot, and approval rates land closer to 40 percent.
Initiatives Approved by Voters, 2000 - 2008
|
Year
|
Number of Initiatives on Ballots
|
Number of Initiatives Approved
|
% of Total Initiatives Approved
|
|
2010
|
42
|
TBD
|
TBD
|
|
2008
|
59
|
25
|
42.4%
|
|
2006
|
76
|
30
|
39.5%
|
|
2004
|
59
|
33
|
55.9%
|
|
2002
|
49
|
21
|
42.9%
|
|
2000
|
69
|
31
|
44.9%
|
Source: National Conference of State Legislatures, October 2010
Looking Back: 2008
In 2008, certainly not an election year when the economy was strong, voters had mixed emotions about revenue measures. One might expect strong voter support for tax and revenue cuts and overwhelming rejection of spending proposals in a bad economy, but that’s not what happened. Voters passed just two of the five major tax and revenue-cutting proposals on the ballot, and gave their approval to two of six proposed tax increases on the ballot nationwide. In Arizona and Oregon, voters agreed that it should be easier (or at least not more difficult, in the case of Arizona) to pass tax increases via the ballot. Voters also approved three out of seven major spending proposals on the ballot, and all but one of the 15 proposed statewide bond issues.
Looking Back: 2006
2006 was a banner year for anti-government initiatives, at least when it comes to qualification for the ballot, if not actual voter approval. The November ballot that year featured four state votes on “regulatory takings” – measures that require the government to compensate property owners when changes in regulations such as zoning laws reduce the value of property. Just one of the four, in Arizona, was approved. As it turned out, that was the only initiative among a large crop of anti-government measures to pass that night. Among those rejected by voters were three aimed at reducing the influence and power of the judicial branch of state government, two term limits proposals, eight proposed tax cuts or limits on spending, and an effort in Colorado to remove restrictions on the initiative process, leaving it largely unregulated by government. Voters also approved all but one of 16 proposed state bond issues on the ballot in 2006.
What does it mean this year?
The results of this test of voters' ire will become evident on November 2. If historical trends hold true, voters will reject about 25 of the 42 initiatives on this year's ballot, and that will include most but not all of the anti-government, anti-tax initiatives. But if the polls and pundits are right about the depth and breadth of voters' frustration with government and elected officials this year, we'll see an unprecedented check on state government's revenues and powers this November 2.
For More Information
Jennie Drage Bowser is NCSL's specialist on ballot measures.