For the Record: Neil Newhouse and Peter Hart: July/August 2012

“The presidential race will come down to who voters believe can best restore the economy and create jobs.”

Neil Newhouse is a partner and co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, which the New York Times described as “the leading Republican polling company” in the nation. He is directing polling for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign, and has worked on many congressional and gubernatorial campaigns. He has twice been named “Pollster of the Year” by the American Association of Political Consultants.

State Legislatures: Will the economy be the primary factor in the November election?

Neil Newhouse: While there are signs of improvement in some facets of the economy, most voters on the front lines of the economy—parents, small business owners, young people—are failing to see the turnaround. We continue to see this sentiment shared in the surveys and focus groups we conduct across the country among all types of people. Far too many people remain either unemployed or underemployed, and rising gas prices are squeezing household budgets. So, yes, the economy will be the No. 1 issue on the minds of most voters. This election will be driven by fiscal issues.

SL: Do voters think the country is moving in the right direction?

Newhouse: Even as more voters believe the country is headed in the right direction than a year ago, a significant majority remain negative, believing the country is off on the wrong track. The sluggish economy has dampened any events that could have otherwise lifted the mood of the country.

SL: What will Washington look like Nov. 7? Who will be in the White House and who will control the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate?

Newhouse: The presidential race will come down to who voters believe can best restore the economy and create jobs. It’s that simple. The House is very likely to remain under Republican control. In past presidential elections, the incumbent president’s party has not gained a substantial number of seats in the House when the presidential race is close. Even in “landslide” presidential elections, the incumbent president’s party has never gained as many seats as the Democrats will need this fall, which is more than 20. In the Senate, Republicans are likely to pick up seats, but whether they will gain majority status remains to be seen. If they can hold the three incumbent toss-up seats—Indiana, Massachusetts and Nevada—Republicans have a terrific shot at taking control of the Senate.

SL: Will the political landscape in the states look much different than it does today?

Newhouse: There will certainly be changes up and down the ticket, but I don’t expect this election to be a “wave election” like we have seen the previous three cycles.

SL: What do you see in terms of voter turnout?

Newhouse: Voter turnout will be solid in 2012, but likely not as strong as in 2008. At the moment, Republicans are more enthusiastic about the election than Democrats. On the Democratic side, enthusiasm has dropped for the president. Voters are not as excited as they were in 2008. However, Obama will be able to partially offset the decline with a robust early voting operation.

SL: How big a factor will social issues—such as abortion, contraception, gay marriage—be for independent voters?

Newhouse: There may be a handful of voters who will base their decision on the candidates’ stances on social issues, but for the vast majority this election will be focused on the economy and the candidate they think can get the country back on the right track.

SL: How significant will the 18- to 29-year-old vote be in 2012?

Newhouse: As in 2008, it will be significant in 2012. However, Obama’s success in 2008 is a bit misleading. While this demographic was important to Obama in 2008, he didn’t drastically increase their turnout—18 percent of the electorate in ’08—relative to 2004 and 2000, when the turnout was 17 percent. Obama’s success among these voters came from his strong margin of victory over John McCain—66 percent to 32 percent. Al Gore and John Kerry both won this age group, but with smaller margins over George W. Bush. Obama’s challenge is that 18- to 29-year-olds are not as enthusiastic about this election as they were in 2008.

SL: How concerned are Americans—and politicians—about the money pouring into super PACS and the negative ads they generate?

Newhouse: Americans are undeniably concerned with the influence of super PACS. In an ABC-Washington Post poll conducted in March, 68 percent of Americans said they believed super PACS should be illegal, while just 25 percent said they should be legal. Politicians also are concerned since they understand that a mere handful of wealthy donors can easily offset all their fundraising efforts.

SL: How important is the top of the ballot to state legislative elections?

Newhouse: Without a doubt, the top of the ticket has an impact on down-ballot races. Presidential years drastically increase turnout. The question this year is going to be whether Obama’s team can get their core supporters enthusiastic about heading to the ballot box on Election Day, like in 2008. Without that enthusiasm, which we haven’t been seeing in the numbers this year, it is unlikely the president’s coattails will be long enough for everyone.

SL: How have polls and campaigns changed in the past 20 to 25 years?

Newhouse: With respect to polling, there have been a number of changes since I began working in the industry. Technological improvements have enabled us to more rapidly analyze data and provide strategic guidance. The proliferation of cellphones also has forced us to adapt our process of reaching voters. Campaigns have changed drastically over the course of my career. In polling, there is a much greater focus on targeting voters. Our data allow us to identify our strongest and most likely supporters and attempt to get them to the polls on Election Day.
 

“Super PACS are … probably the most negative thing that has happened this year.”

Karl Peter Hart is the chairman of Peter D. Hart Research Associates and the man the National Journal called “probably the foremost Washington pollster for the Democratic Party and its centrist candidates.” Hart and Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies have been the pollsters for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal since 1989. Hart’s firm has represented more than 40 U.S. senators and 30 governors and has worked for the Smithsonian Institution, the Holocaust Memorial Museum and the Kennedy Center.

State Legislatures: Will the economy be the primary factor in the November election?

Peter Hart: As the economy goes, so goes the nation. And so goes the presidential election. The question is, are we coming out of the recession and does the public believe that good times are ahead?  The numbers on unemployment alone will not be strong enough for the president’s re-election, and he is going to have to rely on direction and perceptions that indeed things are going to get better one way or another. I think the economy is essential, and at this stage it’s hard to know if it will favor the Democrats or the Republicans. 

SL: Do voters think the country is going in the right direction or off track?

Hart: Only about a third of Americans are saying things are headed in the right direction. And we have essentially been on a negative course for 10 years. There are a few blips here and there, when we killed Osama Bin Laden or when Saddam Hussein was captured. But we haven’t had a majority of Americans saying things are headed in the right direction for a consistent period of time in more than 10 years. I think Democrats would be looking and hoping for the right direction numbers in the 35 percent to 40 percent range for Obama to be re-elected. Like George W. Bush, they may be enough for re-election, but psychologically these numbers are far away from the president feeling he has the wind at his back.

SL: Can you look in your crystal ball and tell us what you think Washington is going to look like after the election?

Hart: The honest answer is, I don’t know. What it really comes down to is the economy. A lot has to do with events within the United States and more important maybe internationally. Unlike other elections where you have a firm and fixed sense of how an election will play out, this is an election where there is so much unhappiness with Washington, the Congress, and government that any scenario is possible. There is so much combustibility. In this election, a third-party candidate could probably score in double digits and congressional incumbents could be in for a surprise. After the election, the Congress may look the same, but American’s attitudes will be vastly different than they were in the 2010 off-year election. At this point, to prognosticate how it’s going to turn out is a recipe for sure folly.

SL: Will the political landscape in the states look much different than it does today?

Hart: This is an election that is going to be driven from the top to the bottom. So it depends a lot on what is happening at the top. How President Obama does in states like North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Missouri will have a tremendous effect, not only on Congress, but also on the statehouses. I think we may have more voters, but a lower percentage of eligible Americans going to the polls. There was a tremendous wave in 2008, but I don’t see that kind of enthusiasm now. The stakes in the election will be driven as much as anything by super PACs and by negative advertising.

SL: How big a role will social issues play?

Hart: Like all elections it always comes back to first principles. And I think first principles are going to relate very much to the economy and to questions of security. The negative effect of the Republican primary will continue to be felt this summer and the fall. The advantage Republicans had going into this primary season was that they were doing well with independents and were predicted to do well with suburban women. What we’ve seen in our later polls is that there has been a huge switch by suburban women to the Democrats. The contraception issue has hurt the Republicans with suburban women and younger independent voters. The positive decision of President Obama on the question of deporting young immigrants has helped him with most voters, but is could be a really solidifying issue for Hispanic voters. The issues such as gay marriage, gun control and abortion will continue to energize the Republican base, but I believe it will have only a small effect on voters in the middle.

SL: How significant will the 18- to 29-year-old vote be this time around?

Hart: Exceptionally important. But the tremendous challenge For Obama’s re-election campaign is whether they will create the same sense of energy, the same sense of passion. My guess would be no. The young vote still very much favors the Democrats and particularly the president. I just don’t think the passion and enthusiasm are equal to where we were four years ago.  While the president and the Democrats will do very well with the younger voters, my question is: Will they vote? Will they be the foot soldiers they were some four years ago? One of the major reasons for this is the advent of. Super PACS, which in my opinion, are probably the most negative thing that has happened this year. They will suppress the turnout and turn off the voters.

SL: How important is the outside money, the super PACs?

Hart:  When the year is over we will recognize that Super PACS are what 2012 was all about. It is probably the most negative thing that has happened this year because candidates have essentially ceded their campaigns over to groups of individuals who have no responsibility to anyone beyond their own cause. Their responsibility does not go beyond Nov. 6. What we have lost is accountability. Candidates are held responsible for their ads; a super PAC has no responsibility. An independent super PAC can choose to vilify the opposition or say a huge number of falsehoods with no price to pay. It is poison. It is a tremendous disservice to our election process and our democracy. Both parties have some responsibility for this phenomenon, but the Republicans are the most responsible. It will have a tremendous effect in every way.

SL:  In the years that you’ve been watching elections, how have the polls or the campaigns changed?

Hart: When I started the business 40 years ago, all of my polls were done door-to-door. Today there is a combination of telephone and Internet polling, and the speed and sophistication of both gathering and analyzing the data is like comparing the old transcontinental railway and today’s super-fast bullet trains.  Both run on tracks, but in every other way, they are totally different. But against that we’ve lost some of the personalization. At the same time we have such a proliferation of polls that it’s hard to know who is measuring what. The challenge for our profession is to provide the politicians and the political process a way to understand what message the voters wish to convey.

Editor’s note: These interviews are part of a series of conversations with opinion leaders. They have been edited for length and clarity. The opinions expressed are those of the interviewee and not of NCSL.