2010 Ballot Measures:  Pre-Election Overview

Updated October 12, 2010

160 measures have qualified for the November ballot in 37 states, and another 24 measures have already appeared on primary and special election ballots. That breaks down into 113 measures referred to the ballot by legislatures (compared to just 84 in 2008, and 121 in 2006), one popular referendum, 42 citizen initiatives, and four questions from other sources.  These four include three questions automatically posed at regular intervals by state constitutions, asking voters whether a constitutional convention should be held, and a non-binding advisory referendum posed by the Florida legislature.

Here's a breakdown of where this year's measures are coming from:

Historical trends are not holding true this year, with the number of citizen initiatives topping out at just 42.  The number of initiatives on the ballot has been much higher in recent years -- there were 59 in 2008, and 76 in 2006.  In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1986, when there were just 38 initiatives on the ballot, to find a year with fewer initiatives than this year.

Another way this year's crop of ballot measures is bucking trends is in its lack of a theme:  there's no single issue dominating this year's ballots, like we saw with same-sex marriage in 2004 - 2006 (on the ballot in 22 states during that period) or social issues including abortion, immigration and stem cells in 2008.  The only semi-unifying feature among this year's measures is their reflection of voters' concern over the economy, and legislatures' struggle to balance state budgets.  Read the tax & budget measures summary to learn more.  Another sort-of-theme?  Drug, tobacco and alcohol policy, on the ballot in six states.  There is a broad array of elections, campaign finance, and redistricting measures appearing on statewide ballots, and some fairly significant measures dealing with legislatures in eight states.

What to Watch

If your time is limited this year and you can't afford to pay attention to all 160 measures on the ballot, here are a handful of important measures for you to keep an eye on:

1.  Colorado's Amendment 60 and 61, and Proposition 101:  Although these are really three separate measures, they are the subject of unified campaigns on both the "yes" and "no" sides, and the official, non-partisan state analysis of the measures looks at the three together.

• Amendment 60:  This would cut local property tax rates in half, and require the state to make up the lost K-12 education revenue.  It does not create a revenue stream or otherwise specify how the state should do that.
• Amendment 61:  This initiative would prohibit all state borrowing after 2010, require voter approval for local government borrowing, and require that local government bonding be repaid within ten years.  It would also require that tax rates be cut once currently outstanding bonds are repaid.  If voters approve Amendment 61, Colorado would be the only state prohibited from issuing bonds to fund infrastructure projects.
• Proposition 101:  This proposed law would cut the state income tax rate from 4.63 percent to 3.5 percent over the next several years, reduce or eliminate most taxes and fees on vehicle purchases, registrations, leases and rentals, and eliminate all telecommunication taxes and fees except for 911 fees.

Why you should watch:  The combined fiscal impact of these three measures on Colorado's budget would be remarkable.  Analysis by the Colorado Legislative Council estimates that the three measures would reduce state revenues by $2.1 billion annually by the time they are fully implemented, and at the same time increase state spending on K-12 education by $1.6 billion annually.  99 percent of the state's general fund budget would go toward K-12 education.  The net effect on local governments, taking into account the mandated state reimbursements to school districts, is estimated to be $1.8 billion each year.  Total taxpayer savings is estimated to be around $1,360 per household each year.

Anti-tax advocates around the country are certainly watching what's happening in Colorado this year, and the success of any of these three measures could lead the appearance of similar propositions on other states' ballots.  Colorado is the birth place of TABOR, the Taxpayers' Bill of Rights, which caps state revenue and requires taxpayer refunds if revenue exceeds the cap.  After Colorado passed TABOR in 1992, the idea spread to state ballots around the country.  Amendment 60 is promoted as an enhancement to TABOR, so this idea could migrate out-of-state as well if it's successful in Colorado.  Amendment 61 is viewed by some observers as a referendum on voters' attitude toward the federal deficit. 

2. California's Proposition 19:  This initiative would legalize the possession and personal use of marijuana for anyone over the age of 21.  It would also permit state and local governments to regulate and tax the sale of marijuana.  A number of states have considered initiatives proposing to legalize the possession of marijuana, and in 2008, Massachusetts voters approved an initiative that replaces criminal penalties for possession with a civil penalty.  But this marks the first time a state has voted on legalizing and taxing the sale of marijuana.

Why you should watch:  Initiatives that get their start in California have a tendency to spread eastward.  Consider a similar issue -- medical marijuana:  California voters approved it in 1996 (it was approved in Arizona that year too, but flaws in the drafting of the Arizona initiative prevented it from ever being implemented).  In 1998, similar measures were approved in Alaska, Nevada, Oregon and Washington.  To date, it's been on the ballot in nine states.  There's already talk in at least two states -- Colorado and Nevada -- of bringing a legalization initiative to the ballot in 2012 if Prop. 19 is approved this November.  The hope is that it would mobilize young voters in those states, who may also vote for Democratic candidates while they're casting their votes on legalizing marijuana.

3. California's Proposition 23:  Prop. 23 would suspend the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 until the state's unemployment rate drops to 5.5 percent or below and stays there for four consecutive quarters.  Unemployment is currently over 12 percent in California, and the last time it stayed below 5.5 percent for four consecutive quarters was in 2006-2007, and before that, in 2000-2001.  The Act requires that the state reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and a long list of industries will face fines beginning in 2012 if they don't reduce their cabon emissions.  At or near the top of that list of industries you'll find oil refiners.  It should come as no surprise then that the oil industry has been the primary source of funding for the "yes" side in the Proposition 23 campaign.  Most of the money on the "no" side comes from environmental groups and clean-tech investors.

Why you should watch:  California's global warming debate is symbolic of the debate going on at the national level, and the election results on Prop. 23 could sway policy makers in other states and Washington D.C.  It is also a powerful example of the role corporate money can play in state ballot measure campaigns.

4.  Washington's Initiatives 1053 and 1107:  In 2007, Washington voters approved Initiative 960, which imposed a two-thirds requirement for the legislature to approve any tax increase.  The Washington Legislature voted earlier this year to suspend the two-thirds requirement until July 2011, allowing the passage of a tax increase with a simple majority vote.  They then moved to increase several taxes in order help bridge an estimated $2.8 billion budget deficit.  Both Initiatives 1053 and 1107 are related to this situation.

• Initiative 1053 would immediately re-impose the supermajority vote requirement for tax increases, instead of allowing it to resume in July 2011.  This would mean that any tax increases the legislature might consider during the 2011 session would require a two-thirds vote for passage.  One deficit solution that was discussed in the 2010 legislative session but ultimately not approved was a hazardous substances tax.  It is widely expected to come up again in 2011.  The oil industry would be heavily impacted by such a tax, and not surprisingly, they are among the chief financial backers of Initiative 1053.

• Initiative 1107 would undo the tax increases passed earlier this year under the temporary suspension of the supermajority vote requirement.  The legislative changes that would be repealed by passage of I-1107 include a temporary extension of the state sales tax to include bottled water, a permanent extension of the state sales tax to include most candy and gum, and a temporary excise tax on carbonated drinks.  It is estimated that these taxes would bring in around $100 million per year over the next three years.  Washington is on track to set a new state record for fundraising in initiative campaigns this year, with over $54 million already raised, and the "yes" side on Initiative 1107 is a significant player in that achievement.  While the "no" side has raised just under $400,000, the "yes" side has raised nearly $17 million, with all but $20,000 of it from a single contributor:  the American Beverage Association.

Why you should watch:  The passage of these two measures would certainly make it more difficult for the Washington Legislature to balance the state's budget next year.  The heavy industry spending and minimal financial backing by Washington voters also highlight the ever-decreasing role of the citizen in the citizen initiative process.

5.  Initiative 1098 in Washington:  This initiative comes at the tax and revenue problem from the opposite direction:  it would impose a new tax on incomes of more than $200,000 for individual filers in Washington, and above $400,000 for joint filers.  The revenue gained from this new income tax would offset cuts in the state property tax and business and occupation tax, and direct any additional revenue to health and education programs.  Washington does not currently have an income tax.

Why you should watch:  At least two states have seen attempts through the initiative process to impose taxes on high-income earners to fund particular programs -- California in 1992, 1996, 2004, and 2006, and Oregon in 2002.  The only proposal among these to receive voter approval was Proposition 63, on the 2004 ballot in California.  It imposed an additional 1 percent tax on incomes of more than $1 million to fund an expansion of mental health services.  Washington voters actually approved an income tax initiative back in 1932, during the height of the Great Depression, but it was found unconstitutional by the state supreme court the following year.  Will one of the seven states without an income tax implement one this year in order to ease the impact of the economic slump?

Looking Back:  Total Measures on the Ballot, 1998 - 2010

The following chart details the number of measures on November general election statewide ballots between 1998 and 2010.

Source:  National Conference of State Legislatures, October 2010

For More Information

For more information on initiative and referendum, please contact Jennie Drage Bowser in NCSL's Denver office.