2009 Ballot Measures Preview

2009 will be a quiet election year for ballot measures, with just 26 measures on the ballot in six states. Ballot measures are always less common in odd-year elections than in even-year elections -- many states don't hold statewide elections, and the laws in most initiative states prohibit initiatives on odd-year ballots -- but this year, activity is even lower than usual.

Number of Measures on the Ballot

 During the period 1999 - 2009, the average number of statewide ballot measures in an odd-year general election is 33.2, with the high water mark falling in 1999, when 43 measures appeared on ballots around the country. The only year that registered fewer ballot measures than 2009 during this period was 2003, when 22 measures appeared on statewide ballots.

Slightly more measures are coming from citizens than usual this year. In most odd-year elections in recent history, about 16% of the measures on statewide ballots were citizen initiatives, with most of the rest coming from state legislatures. In 2005, initiative activity was unusually high for two reasons: Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger took the unusual step of qualifying four initiatives to the California ballot, and a proposal that was circulated as a single petition was divided into four separate questions on the Ohio ballot. This year, just under one-quarter of the 26 measures on ballots November 3 are citizen initiatives.

This Year's Big Issues

This year's ballot should look familiar, with some of the same high-profile issues that have dominated state ballots for the past several years.

Same-Sex Marriage

Two states will consider the rights of same-sex couples this year. In both states, the measures on the ballot are popular referenda. A popular referendum is a petition-driven effort to overturn a new law passed by the legislature. In Maine, Question 1 asks voters to overturn a new law permitting same-sex marriage. In Washington, Referendum Measure 71 asks voters to repeal a new law that gives domestic partnership rights to same-sex and unmarried senior couples that are equivalent to the rights provided by marriage.

These two measures bring the total number of states that have voted on same-sex marriage to 31. So far, voters in just one state have approved same-sex marriage: a ban failed to pass in 2006, but a second attempt to ban same-sex marriage was successful on the 2008 ballot. This will be the first time voters have been asked to overturn a law passed by the legislation that legalizes same-sex marriage.

Revenue Limits

Two states will consider revenue-limiting initiatives this year. Question 4 in Maine limits state and local government spending and requires voter approval for tax increases. The limits on spending are tied to population growth and inflation. Twenty percent of the revenues in excess of the cap are directed to a budget stabilization fund, and the remaining eighty percent to a Tax Relief Reserve Fund. Any revenues in the new fund will be used to reduce income tax rates or provide income tax refunds. Maine voters rejected a similar measure in 2006 – Question 1, An Act to Create the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, received just 46.1% of the vote that year. An October 14 poll shows that voters see it more favorably this year, with 52.8 percent of those polled likely to vote "yes."

In Washington, Initiative 1033 would limit growth in state and local revenue, tying the limits to population growth and inflation, and direct excess revenues toward property tax relief. Any revenue in excess of the cap would be placed in a separate fund, and the amount of property taxes gathered in the next year would be reduced by the amount in the fund. Polling in Washington is less clear than in Maine. An October 6 poll by SurveyUSA shows that 45 percent of voters favor passage, and 32 percent oppose it, with 22 percent still undecided.

Medical Marijuana

Maine voters approved the medical use of marijuana in 1999. This year, they will vote on Question 5, which amends the existing law in several ways. It would expand the list of conditions for which medical marijuana can be prescribed, and set up a procedure to expand the list in the future without a public vote. It would also create a system of dispensaries and provide for their regulation by the state, and provide additional legal protections for patients who use medical marijuana.

Gaming

Issue 3 in Ohio would allow one casino to be built in each of four specified cities. The casinos would pay a 33 percent tax on receipts, and most of the revenue raised would go to Ohio counties. This will be the fifth time since 1990 that Ohio voters have been asked to approve casino gambling; all previous initiatives have failed to pass. The most recent casino initiative was on the ballot in November 2008 – Issue 6 would have permitted a single casino in southwest Ohio and the majority of the revenue raised by the thirty percent tax on receipts would have been distributed among the state’s 88 counties. Issue 6 received just 32.7 percent of the vote. 

Bonds

Voters in three states will consider bond issues totaling just over $671 million this year. NCSL has data on statewide bond proposals going back to 1992, and this is the smallest number of bond proposals in a single election during this 18-year period. It is also the second-smallest total in terms of dollars during this period – in 1997, just under $94 million was proposed. 

The chances that these bond measures will pass are difficult to predict. Voters are generally receptive to bond measures. Between 1992 and 2008, 82.1 percent of all proposed bond measures were approved by voters. Bond measures are also more likely to pass in odd-year elections, when voter turnout is much lower: 91.7 percent of the bonds proposed in an odd-year election during that time period were passed, compared to just 78.7 percent of those on even-year ballots. However, it is also true that 55 percent of the total bond measures rejected during that time period were on the ballot during the years 1992 – 1994, when the economy was either in bad shape, or in recovery.

For More Information

For more information on ballot measures, contact Jennie Drage Bowser in NCSL's Denver office.